slide1 l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Airborne Reconnaissance PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Airborne Reconnaissance

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 7

Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Airborne Reconnaissance - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 265 Views
  • Uploaded on

Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Airborne Reconnaissance Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division Miami, FL Tropical Prediction Center Performance Measures Official 48-h forecast errors from 1990-2004

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Airborne Reconnaissance' - andrew


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Airborne Reconnaissance

Robert Rogers

NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division

Miami, FL

slide2

Tropical Prediction Center Performance Measures

Official 48-h forecast errors from 1990-2004

43% improvement for track

17% improvement for intensity

Track (nm)

Intensity (kt)

slide3

Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)

  • Multi-year effort to improve forecasts of hurricane intensity, structure, and rainfall
  • Provide data to improve the operational computer modeling system
  • Improve our understanding of intensity change, structure change, and rainfall
slide4

Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)

  • APPROACH
  • Data collected will support model development by addressing these aspects of a computer modeling system:

1) model initialization

- representation of the initial state of the atmosphere,

including the tropical cyclone

2) model parameterization

- representation of physical processes not capable of

being represented directly on model domain

3) model evaluation

- rigorous, quantitative evaluation of model

performance

  • Focus on providing measurements of tropical cyclones in multiple locations at all stages of the life cycle, from formation to intensification and subsequent landfall or decay over water.
slide5

19

(3%)

30

(5%)

140 (24%)

Tropical Disturbance

Tropical Depression

Tropical Storm

Hurricane

387 (67%)

Proportion of HRD Research Flights

by Lifecycle Stage (1976-2004)

slide6

Partnerships with Other Experiments

Tropical cyclone lifecycle and experiment coverage

slide7

Horizontal

Vertical

dBZ

observed

radar

dBZ

simulated

radar

stratiform

stratiform

stratiform

stratiform

rainband

rainband

eyewall

eyewall

Comparison of Observed and Simulated Radar Images