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Creating objective evaluations, or the possibilities of similarity analysis

Creating objective evaluations, or the possibilities of similarity analysis

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Creating objective evaluations, or the possibilities of similarity analysis

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  1. Creating objective evaluations, or the possibilities of similarity analysis Pitlik, L., Pető I., Bunkóczi L. Institute of Business analysis and methodology University of Gödöllő World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) 19. World Conference

  2. Introduction • Futurology • Creating futures • On the base of ideas or, • on models • Modelling • Base question: between two models which is the better? • Similarity analysis • Which case is the most similar? World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) 19. World Conference

  3. Futurology • Creating futures shall not be an ideological, an unrealistic self objective aim / theory … • Than a mix of different sciences, like it has been defined by itself for theexperimental science for centuries. • Thus, the futurology is an experimental science, the fitting of future forecasts can be examined well, • and can be expected that with interpreting the logical errors behind misses, the objective statutories will be recognized with higher and higher safety. World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) 19. World Conference

  4. Modelling I. • In certain cases an Expert System (logical rules) can be the same as a model (usually a numerical function) and a model can be transformed to an Expert System. • E.g. an Expert System for yield calculation sometimes is better than a production function • Type of Expert Systems • Basing for predefined rules – rule systems • Inductive EXS – based on real datasets / phenomena and the rules are derived from the real life World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) 19. World Conference

  5. Modelling II. • Which is more appropriate for futures / forecasting? • Both can be good, • and sometimes non of them. • What can be a good solution? • Creating automated complex and consistent futures: • Complex: all attributes are valued • Consistent: the forecasted values are in tight connection: e.g.: 5,2 t/ha yield of soft wheat may happen but in that case the quantity of rain shall be high and other inputs shall be appropriate too World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) 19. World Conference

  6. Similarity analysis • Given hundreds of complex and consistent futures • Which is the most probable? • Probably those one which are the most similar to certain past cases. • COCO analysis (Component based Object Consistency for Objectivity) • comparison • forecasts World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) 19. World Conference

  7. Whole cycle of creating futures • First time step: • generation of automated complex and consistent forecasts • similarity analysis: choosing the most probable one • Next time step • evaluation and fining after the plan/fact comparisons • again from the 1. point World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) 19. World Conference

  8. Summary • With the consistent integration of knowledge from the patterns of the past (supposed as known), more and more automatic (without ideological basics) deductable the potential (alternative) complex future. • The deduction’s methodology will be able to fine itself after the fact-estimation comparisons and along the complex analysis of the ways toward the comparisons. • The philosophy of the recognized necessity in this way may be able to develop the futurology to an industry like service. World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) 19. World Conference

  9. Thank you for your attention For more details: http://miau.gau.hu/miau/84/19wfsf_full_en.doc And World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) 19. World Conference