CLIVAR’s Variability of the American Monsoon Systems Panel (VAMOS). 2001: “VAMOS is based on two internationally coordinated monsoon experiments: MESA in South America and NAME in North America.”.
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2001: “VAMOS is based on two internationally coordinated monsoon experiments: MESA in South America and NAME in North America.”
2009: The term "monsoon system" encompasses not only the summer monsoon rainfall in the tropical Americas, but also the perturbations in the planetary, synoptic and mesoscale flow patterns that occur in association with it, including those in the winter hemisphere.
The region of interest covers both the tropical and the extratropical Americas and surrounding oceans.
Variability of the American Monsoon Systems (VAMOS)
The annual cycle of convection over the Americas
Horel et al. (1989)
Four Complementary Science Programs
• North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
• Monsoon Experiment for South America (MESA)
• VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study (VOCALS)
• Inter-Americas Study of Climate Processes (IASCLIP)
Outstanding Questions and Remaining Challenges:
D. Gochis, May 13, 2009
Chair: J. Marengo
The SAMS provides a physical basis for
determining the degree of predictability
on short- and long timescales over the region.
GOALS of VOCALS Improved understanding and regional/global model representation of aerosol indirect effects over the Southeast Pacific Climate System.
Elimination of CGCM systematic errors in the SEP, and improved model simulations of the coupled system in the region and global impacts of its variability.www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/vocals
20 Research Institutions
6 Operational centers
Great Plains Precipitation
Boreal summer circulation
Boreal winter circulation
5 largest warm pools
5 smallest warm pools
Multiple Regional Projects
CLARIS - LPBA Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies
IAI - LPB
Land Use and Cover, and
- 10 countries, 20 institutions -
Subproject 2: Past and future hydroclimate
Subproject 4: Socio-economic scenarios and adaptation/ prevention strategies
Courtesy of Anna Sorensson
· WP3: Improving our description of recent past climate variability in La Plata Basin
· WP4: Hydroclimate past and future low-frequency variability, trends and shifts
· WP5: Regional Climate Change assessments for La Plata Basin
· WP6: Processes and future evolution of extreme climate events in La Plata Basin
· WP8: Land use change, agriculture and socio-economic implications
· WP9: Water resources in La Plata Basin in the context of climate change
The VAMOS Modeling Plan
Ben Kirtman, Celeste Saulo and others
Improve the prediction of warm season precipitation over the Americas, for societal benefit, and to assess the implications of climate change.
The VAMOS modeling plan seeks improvements to how we model the interactions between the local processes and regional and larger scale variability in regional and global models.
Model development efforts must take on a multi-scale approach that integrates across all of the[science programs in VAMOSand, on the global scale, link with the wider modeling initiatives in CLIVAR and WCRP.
–Role of SSTs (especially other than ENSO)
–Role of land surface feedbacks (strength, time scales)
–Role of intraseasonal variability (e.g. MJO)
–Seasonal and Decadal differences in predictability
–Current Level of Quality
co-chaired by Lisa Goddard and Jean-Philippe Boulanger (2008/9)*
*2009-- Siegfried Schubert and Iracema Cavalcanti (TBC)
VAMOS will consider its continental perspective in linking extremes in warm season climate behavior to the circulation structures defined as the monsoon systems.
The VAMOS Extremes Task Force considered:
(1) Issues that are coherent across VAMOS program areas,
(2) Aspects of extremes that can be somewhat unique to VAMOS, and
(3) How to capitalize and complement existing and on-going efforts within the climate community (e.g., USCLIVAR; CEOP).
(4) Social impact of extremes: seeking to quantify the cost of specific extreme events
Tereza Cavazos, Dave Gochis, J.-P. Boulanger, J. Marengo
In the climate change context, there is a need to identify and understand important processes that control monsoonal climates in the Americas, their variability and changes, and how these processes interact withbroader societal issues, such as impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.
Current climate or Scenario
global climate models
Provide boundary conditions
regional climate models
Regional climate change assessments
WP5 specific objectives:
● Coordinate efforts to produce ensembles of the regional models toward an integrated view of the expected regional hydroclimate in South America in general and La Plata Basin in particular.
● Investigate the range of differences between the projections employing a suite of mesoscale regional models.
● Contribute to the knowledge of downscaled climate model scenarios for the La Plata basin region, and quantify their associated uncertainties.
CLARIS-LPB WP-5 (NARCCAP)
Regional climate change and downscaling
- Regional climate model scenarios (BCs: A1B)
1990-2005 (ERA-Interim), GCMs
Specific deliverables are:
5.1: A set of metrics to be employed in model performance
5.2: Uncertainties in simulations from Task 1 will be examined and reported.
Selected CLIVAR Priorities (NARCCAP)
In summary: (NARCCAP)
VAMOS can contribute with its regional expertise to advance CLIVAR’s Imperatives…
VAMOS promotes communications between science components, Cross-cuts, Research networks…
VAMOS is interested in increasing and strengthening the links with USCLIVAR and other Climate Programs…