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Scientific Data MINING for Global Modeling of Sustainable Development. M ichael ZGUROVSKY zgurovsm@hotmail.com. ICSU WORLD DATA SYSTEM. World Data Center Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development . Created 57 years ago, after IGY, to manage geophysical and solar data on a global scale

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Scientific Data MINING for Global Modeling of Sustainable Development


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    1. Scientific Data MINING for Global Modeling of Sustainable Development Michael ZGUROVSKY zgurovsm@hotmail.com ICSU WORLD DATA SYSTEM

    2. World Data CenterGeoinformatics and Sustainable Development • Created 57 years ago, after IGY, to manage geophysical and solar data on a global scale • Operated under the guidance of an ICSU Interdisciplinary Body • Were supported by host nations • Archived and disseminated data and information to tertiary users • Evolved to address environmental sciences and human activities • 51 WDCs were located in 13 Countries • Good representation of geophysical and environmental disciplines

    3. ICSU – International Council for Science World Data System Australia(1), Belgium(2), China(9), Denmark(1), France(1), Germany(3), India(1), Japan(8), Netherlands(1), Russian Federation(5), Ukraine(1), United Kingdom(3), USA(15) Australia(1), Belgium(2), China(9), Denmark(1),France(1), Germany(3),India(1), Japan(8), Netherlands(1), Russian Federation(5), Ukraine(1), United Kingdom(3), USA(15) • WDS key principles: “Full and Open Access” • “WDCs will provide data to scientists in any country free of charge or at a cost not to exceed the cost of copying and sending the requested data.” • “WDCs operate … for the benefit of the international scientific community and provide a mechanism for international exchange of data in all disciplines related to the Earth, its environment, and the Sun.” RIHMI-WDC, GC RAS, IASA – Russian‐Ukrainian segment of the WDC System, December 26, 2008 Science directions: Airglow(1), Astronomy(1), Atmospheric Trace Gases(1), Aurora(1), Biodiversity(1), Climate(1), Cosmic Rays(1), Earth Tides(1), Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development(1), Geology(1), Geomagnetism(4), Glaciology(3), Human Interactions in the Environment(1), Ionosphere(1), Land Cover Data(1), Marine Environmental Sciences(1), Marine Geology and Geophysics(2), Meteorology(3), Nuclear Radiation(1), Oceanography(3), Paleoclimatology(1), Remotely Sensed Data(2), Renewable Resources and Environment(1), Rockets and Satellites(3), Rotation of the Earth(2), Seismology(2), Soils(1), Solar Activity(1), Solar Radio Emissions(1), Solar Terrestrial, Physics(4), Solid Earth Geophysics(3), Space Science(1), Sunspot Index(1).

    4. WDC-Ukraine creation Decision of Presidium of the National academy of sciences of Ukraine, Ministry of education and science of Ukraine and Geophysical center of the Russian academy of sciences from April_3, 2006 ICSU WORLD DATA SYSTEM

    5. “Network of Networks” Key partners • Institute for applied system analysis • Institute of Geophysics of NASof Ukraine • Main Astronomical Observatory of NAS of Ukraine • Marine Hydrophysical Instituteof NAS of Ukraine • Institute of Geography of NASof Ukraine • State Service of Geodesy and Cartography • Scientific center for aerospace researches of Earth • ChornobylCenter for Nuclear Safety, Radioactive Waste and Radioecology

    6. Scientific data infrastructure World Data Centers Ukrainian scientificinstitutions • 122computing nodes: • 44 with 2xQuadroCore Intel Xeon E5440 @ 2.83GHz, • RAM 8 GB • - 78 with 2xDualCore Intel Xeon 5160 @ 3.00GHz, RAM 4 GB • InfiniBand • Lustre FS • Peak Performance 7 TFlops • Data storage12TB + 20TB Mainandduplicatetechnical areas

    7. WDC Public Portalhttp://wdc.org.ua • Data and Results • Index of Sustainable Development (Isd), and Harmonization Degree of Sustainable Development (G) for • countries • regions of Ukraine • Creating plans and recommendations for improved level and quality of life in the context of Sustainable Development http://wdc.org.ua

    8. APPLICATION 1Scientific Data Miningfor Sustainable Development global modeling

    9. The Concept of Sustainable • Development • The concept of noosphere (“nous” – mind, “sphere” – • the Earth’s cover) V.Vernadsky, Sorbonne, 1922 • 2. “Noosphere - the modern stage of the biosphere • development (environment) connected with the active role • of the Homo sapiens”Edward Le Roy, 1927 г. • 3. The theory connecting natural sciences (biospherology) • with social science.Pierre de Chardin, 1928

    10. “System coordination of economic, ecological and human development in such a way that from one generation to the other the quality and safety of life should not decrease, the environmental conditions should not worsen and the social progress should meet the needs of every person” UN Commission, 1996 The Concept of Sustainable Development:

    11. The Concept of Sustainable Development Transition from One-Dimensional Development to its Harmonization with Respect to Three (Four) constituents:{Economic; Ecological; Social}The beginning of the process- 1970s.{Economic; Ecological; Social; Institutional}1996, Commission on Sust. Dev.,United Nations.

    12. The Investigation Goals: To develop the Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix on the basis of interdisciplinary data, described the economic, ecological and social dimensions; 2. To perform the sustainable development global modeling in context of quality of life and security of world population; 3. To estimate the impact of totality of global threats on sustainability.

    13. Quaternary Approach for Sustainable Development measurement Sustainable Development Quality of Life Security of Population ; for stable state of the society ; ; for conflict state of the society Where:

    14. Stage 1 Data Analysis of Quality of Life Component of Sustainability

    15. Quality of Life Index ()and Harmonization Degree (α) 1. 2. α – Harmonization Degree Economic (1,1,1) α Ecological Social/Institutional

    16. Gauging Matrix Data Provision (http://www.wdc.org.ua/)

    17. Economic dimension 22 Indicators 3 Policy Categories Ecological dimension 31 Indicators 6 Policy Categories Social+Inst. dimension 33 Indicators 3 Policy Categories Total: 65 Indicators, 12 Policy Categories Mathematical Model for Quality of Life Modelling“Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix” (SDGM)

    18. 10leader Countries:Quality of life component 2007-2011

    19. G-8 Countries:Quality of life component 2007-2011

    20. BRICS Countries (Brasilia, Russia, India, China, South Africa): Quality of life component 2007-2011

    21. 10 Outsider Countries Quality of life component 2007-2011

    22. Результати оцінювання компоненти якості життярегіонів України

    23. Результати оцінювання компоненти якості життярегіонів України

    24. SDGM model adequacy check by means of matching of sustainable development and night lights maps Nighttime Lights of the World Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) 1993-2003

    25. Stage 2 Data Analysis of Security of the World Population

    26. Conflict Statuses Analysis «The structure profile » of Cn – waves of world conflicts

    27. Duration Intensity Fs = {13, 8, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1*} DurationT(Cn) and IntensityI(Сn)of World Conflicts (n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,7)

    28. Main characteristics of Cn waves of conflicts

    29. Identification of World Conflicts1. Duration T(C1)=13kс; T(C2)=8kс;T(C3)=5kс; T(C4)=3kс; T(C5)=2kс; T(C6)=1kс; T(C7)=1kс~85 years, Fs = {13, 8, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1*}– Fibonacci Series T(Cn)/T(Cn+1) ~ 1.618, Gold Section n=1,2,3.,6...

    30. “THE CONFLICT OF XXI CENTURY “ AND ANALYSIS OF ITS NATURE This conflict has temporary band between 2008 - 2092 with probable following phases: 1. The 10's years of XXI century-origin; The beginning 20's, the extremity of 40's of XXI century –growth 50's – 60’s of XXI century -the culmination, I * (C7)> 16; 4. The 60's, the extremity х 70's of XXI century -recession; 5. 80's of XXI century -attenuation.

    31. Main Global Threats of XXI Century Energy& Resources crisis Environ-mental Problems Global Diseases Growing Biocapacity/ Consumption Misbalance Humanitarian Cataclysms

    32. Global Reductionof Natural Energy Resources ! !! !!! ?! 2007 2050 2092 oil gas uranium 235 + – ↑ Consumption Production↓ years //Hermann Scheer – Energy is a driving force for our civilization – SOLAR ADVOCATE, 2005

    33. ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS Temperature anomalies for the Russian Federation from July 20–27, 2010 -- Growing pollution of environment;- Global warming;- Climate change;-Natural and Anthropogenic disasters;- Limited access to the potable water http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=45069

    34. Vulnerability to Global Diseases Cancer The World Health Statistics 2009 Mortality Ischemicheart disease Cerebral vascular disease (stroke) HIV/AIDS Tuberculosis Other infectious diseases Malaria Years //World Health Organization: http://apps.who.int/whosis/data/Search.jsp

    35. Source: Living Planet Report 2008 Link: http://assets.panda.org/downloads/living_planet_report_2008.pdf Biological Disbalance Ecological debtor and creditor countries, 2005 Gap ≈ 14 BillionGlobal Hectares UN World Population Projections, 1950-2050

    36. ‘INFORMATION Boom’ Information Size > Storage Available Source: IDC Digital Universe Study 2010 Link: http://www.emc.com/collateral/demos/microsites/idc-digital-universe/iview.htm ZB 35 ZB 2020 Gap 20 ZB 15 ZB 0,9 ZB Zettabyte= 1021 bytes 0,25 ZB

    37. 1. Data Preparation ES – Energy Security FB – Footprint and Biocapacity Misbalance GINI – Inequality GD – Global Diseases CM – Child Mortality CP – Corruption Perception WA – Water Access GW – Global Warming SF – State Fragility ND – Natural Disasters 2. Normalization - Security Index (Minkovsky Norm) 3. Calculation of the Remotness to the Threats Totality Isec = 4. Klasterization Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats on the Sustainability

    38. Threat 1 (ES) Threats Totality ••• ES° Threat 10 (ND) Threat 2 (FB) ND° FB° Country Sustainability Isec = - Remoteness to the Threats Totality (Minkovsky Norm) Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats

    39. 10 leader Countries in terms of Security of Human Life

    40. G8 Countries in Terms of Security of Human Life

    41. BRICS Countries in terms of Security of Human Life

    42. 10 Least Safe Countries

    43. Результати оцінювання компоненти безпеки життя та вразливості до загрозрегіонів України

    44. Результати оцінювання компоненти безпеки життя та вразливості до загроз регіонів України

    45. Компонента безпеки життя та її складові

    46. Stage 3 Calculation of total Sustainable Development Quaternary in terms of: Security Quality of life {Q}= jIsec + Iql

    47. 10 Leader Countries: Total Quality of Life and Security of the Population

    48. G8 Countries:Total Quality of Life and Security of the Population

    49. BRICS Countries: Total Quality of Life and Security of the Population

    50. 10 Outsider Countries:Total Quality of Life and Security of the Population