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COCOMO II Calibration Status. COCOMO Forum October 2004. A Little History. Calibration effort started in January 2002 Confusion Repository in an inconsistent state “Uncharacterized” data from many sources Process for duplicating the 2000 calibration results

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cocomo ii calibration status

COCOMO II Calibration Status

COCOMO Forum

October 2004

a little history
A Little History
  • Calibration effort started in January 2002
  • Confusion
    • Repository in an inconsistent state
    • “Uncharacterized” data from many sources
    • Process for duplicating the 2000 calibration results
    • Schedule compression rating was inconsistent
  • Expectation
    • New data had a lot of variation but…
    • Affiliates (and the user population in general) want an “Accurate” and up-to-date model – not just one that explained variation
      • PRED(.25) versus R2

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

change in approach
Change in Approach
  • Removed pre-1990 data from dataset used in calibration
    • This removed a lot of “converted” data
  • Removed “bad” data
    • Incomplete: No duration data, estimated effort, no valid SLOC size
  • Still use the Bayesian calibration approach developed by Chulani
  • Changed to a holistic analysis approach: considered effort and duration together
    • Identified data that needed review
    • Schedule compression was automatically set

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

post 1989 data using current cocomo ii values
Post-1989 Data Using Current COCOMO II Values

Effort Underestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Underestimated

Effort Underestimated

Duration Underestimated

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

effort duration error interpretation
Effort- Duration Error Interpretation

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

effort estimate error compared to size post 1989 89 projects 2000 cal
Effort Estimate Error Compared to Size (Post 1989 – 89 Projects, 2000 Cal)

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

duration estimate error compared to size post 1989 89 projects 2000 cal
Duration Estimate Error Compared to Size (Post 1989 – 89 Projects, 2000 Cal)

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

accuracy results
Accuracy Results

Effort Estimation Accuracy

Duration Estimation Accuracy

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

calibration progress
Calibration Progress
  • Reviewing new data
    • Dataset A: 8 projects
    • Dataset B: 52 projects
    • Dataset C: 13 projects
    • Dataset D: 4 projects
    • Dataset E: 10 projects
    • Dataset F: 8 projects

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

dataset a
Dataset A

Effort Underestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Underestimated

Duration Underestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Underestimated

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

dataset b
Dataset B

Effort Overestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Underestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Underestimated

Duration Underestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Underestimated

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

dataset c
Dataset C

Effort Underestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Underestimated

Duration Underestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Underestimated

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

dataset d e
Dataset D & E

Effort Underestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Underestimated

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

dataset f
Dataset F

Effort Underestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Overestimated

Effort Underestimated

Duration Underestimated

Effort Overestimated

Duration Underestimated

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

observations on new data
Observations on New Data
  • The estimation error of the new datasets lie outside the Post-1989 (Cal 2000) dataset error range
  • When each dataset is given its own (local) calibration constant, A, accuracy improves
  • There have been some suggestions on modifying the COCOMO II model
    • “Globbing” data by application domain or platform and provide different model constants for each “glob”
    • Add a Cost Driver that accounts for “spread” of data

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

proposed new driver
Proposed New Driver
  • Domain Expertise Driver
  • Definition:
    • Cumulative knowledge and experience that has been acquired through a thorough track record that comes to represent the core competencies of an organization

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

next steps
Next Steps
  • Finish Early COCOTS calibration
    • Tailoring and Glue Code activities to analyze
    • Model definition manual and tool
  • Finish COCOMO II calibration
    • Consider “Globbing” over adding a new driver
  • Start COCOMO II Driver Elaboration
    • Make some driver descriptions less subjective
    • Crisper definitions

COCOMO Forum - October 2004

for more information requests or questions
For more information, requests or questions

Brad Clark

Software Metrics, Inc.

brad@software-metrics.com

Ye Yang

USC-CSE

yey@usc.edu

COCOMO Forum - October 2004