Decision Support Systems (DSS)

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# Decision Support Systems (DSS) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Decision Support Systems (DSS). Dr. Merle P. Martin MIS Department CSU Sacramento. Agenda. Ski Resort Planning What is a DSS? Unstructured Problems DSS Components DSS Examples Group DSS. Ski Area Planning. Ski area designs require same input same decision model

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Decision Support Systems (DSS)

Dr. Merle P. Martin

MIS Department

CSU Sacramento

Agenda
• Ski Resort Planning
• What is a DSS?
• Unstructured Problems
• DSS Components
• DSS Examples
• Group DSS
Ski Area Planning
• Ski area designs require
• same input
• same decision model
• Each resort offers :
• different types of trails
• to different skill levels
• Long-range objective: maximize profits for given terrain & market mix

Ski Area Planning

• Optimum design concentrates on balancing downhill / uphill capacities
• System of trails cannot easily be changed once carved
• Summer activities complicate design
• Industry is capital intensive
Ski Resort PlanningPrimary Objective

Downhill Capacity

(Trails)

Uphill Capacity

(Lifts)

=

Production Capacity

Market Demand

Ski Area Planning

Terrain Capacity Analysis:

• Examine physical attributes of mountain
• Create initial set of trails
• Determine mountain's downhill capacity (i.e., trail system)

Ski Area Planning

Terrain Capacity Analysis:

• Examine physical attributes of the mountain
• Create initial set of trails
• Determine mountain's downhill capacity (i.e., trail system)

Market Analysis:

• Match trail system to market mix
Topography Map (Terrain)

Steep slope

Gentle slope

Novice & beginner trail

Lifts

Physical Design
• Physical terrain and constraints
• Slope of mountain sides
• Physical obstacles (e.g., cliffs, boulders, creeks, etc.)
• Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery)
• Designer selects initial layout
• Initial set of trails
Physical Design
• Downhill capacity of skiers calculated
• Number of skiers per acre (judgmental)
• Type of skier (i.e., skill level)
• Regional density
Market Analysis
• Objective: match trail system to market demands
• Seven skier skill levels:
• Beginner
• Novice
• Low intermediate
• Intermediate
• High intermediate
• Expert

Market Mix: Percentage from each category

Decision Support System
• Calculates trail capacity
• Matches skill levels to trail via slope grades
• Takes into account skier density per acre by skill level
• Calculates market mix of skier skill levels
• Provides expected numbers from a given market mix distribution
Decision Support System
• Balances trail system to market mix
• Changes input parameters:
• Trail attributes
• Density levels
• Market mix distribution
• Examines uphill capacity
Market Display:Design for 3837 Skiers

Market percent estimated by the planner

Computed by the DSS

What is a DSS?

Sprague / Carlson:

“Computer-based system that

helps the decision maker

confront ill-structured problems

through direct interaction with

data and analysis models.”

DSS Philosophy
• Aid decision maker
• not replace (ES)
• Decision maker remains in control
• Not always best decision
• Change / flexibility
• Quick response
DSS Characteristics
• Large amounts of data
• Different data sources
• Tailored to decision maker:
• judgment
• knowledge
• intuition
• style
• personal traits
DSS Characteristics
• Graphically oriented
• Optimize / heuristics
• “What if”(sensitivity) analysis
• Goal-seeking analysis
• Unstructured problems
Major Components of a DSS

Model Base

DSS

Software

• Models
• Financial
• Statistical analysis
• Graphical
• Project mgmt

Data Base

GraphicalInterface

Decision Maker

Model Base
• Financial
• Statistical Analysis
• Graphical
• Project Management
• Management Science
• Operations research
Financial Models
• Cash Flow
• e.g., discounted payback
• Internal ROI
• Portfolio Analysis
• stock market
Statistical Analysis
• Descriptive (summary)
• Trend projection
• Hypothesis testing
• Regression analysis
Management Science
• Inventory
• Queuing (Line)
• Network
• Search
DSS Examples
• American Airlines
• Price / rate selection
• Frito-Lay
• Juniper Lumber
• Production scheduling
DSS Examples
• Kmart
• Price evaluation
• Southern Railway
• Train dispatching and forecasting
• Texas Oil & Gas
• Potential drilling sites
Issue

• How?
• How could your firm use a DSS?
• What problems do you see with DSS?
Group Decision Support System (GDSS)

interactive computer-based system facilitating solution of unstructured problems by a set of decision makers working together as a group.

GDSS Components

Database

GDSS

Processor

Groupware

Model Base

Dialogue

Manager

User

Groupware
• Brainstorming tools
• Idea organization
• Prioritization / voting
• Electronic questionnaires
• pre-meeting
• Group Dictionary
• Stakeholder identification
GDSS Layout

Projection Screen

Facilitator Console & Network Server

Workstations

Projector

GDSS Benefits
• Efficiency of group meetings
• Quality of decisions reached
• alternatives examined
• participation / contribution
• those who would otherwise be silent
• decision outcomes
• Leverage (way meetings run)
• e.g., human parallel processing
Factors Affecting GDSS Outcomes
• Anonymity
• provides sense of equality
• encourages participation by all
• reduces:
• problems with “group think”
• dominance by strong personalities
• heightens conflict / impoliteness
GDSS Factors
• Facility Design
• lighting and layout
• Multiple public screens
• Knowledge bases / databases
• Network speed
GDSS Factors
• Fixed versus customized tools
• Software design
• ease of use
• Group size / composition
• individual satisfaction increases with group size
• Satisfaction
• participants not blocked out of group
Groupware Matrix

same time

Face-to-Face Meetings

(electronic copyboards)

Teams in Place

(team room tools)

same place

Cross-Distance Meetings

(audio/video conferencing)

Ongoing

Coordination

(voice mail, e-mail)

different places

different times

Issue

GDSS is based on the assumption that anonymity is desired. How important is anonymity in groups?

• at work?
• in class?
• in distance-learning?

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Points to Remember
• What is a DSS?
• DSS Components
• DSS Examples
• Group DSS