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Nuclear Power

Nuclear Power. Akira OMOTO DIR-NENP a.omoto@iaea.org. Global trend on nuclear power Nuclear Power Reactors Characteristics of nuclear power option Future projections Introducing Nuclear Power Summary. Trend on Nuclear Power. Current worldwide nuclear generating capacity

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Nuclear Power

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  1. Nuclear Power Akira OMOTO DIR-NENP a.omoto@iaea.org

  2. Global trend on nuclear power Nuclear Power Reactors Characteristics of nuclear power option Future projections Introducing Nuclear Power Summary Seminar 6Feb2007

  3. Trend on Nuclear Power • Current worldwide nuclear generating capacity • Commercial NPPs in Operation 435 (367.8 GWe) • Share of nuclear electricity 16% • Slowdown of capacity addition since late 80’s • Electricity market deregulation • Slow growth of electricity demand in advanced countries • Public Perception • Economic reforms in Russia and EE countries • Nuclear electricity increased due to availability increase • Best practice prevailing • Consolidation to those who perform best • Risk-informed regulation • Plant life extension and power uprating • Current expansion in Asia • Rising expectation to the role of nuclear power Seminar 6Feb2007

  4. Developing countries Japan / ROK FSU / EE Western Europe North America Current expansion is in Asia and Eastern Europe • 17/29 in Asia • India 7 • China 4 (+2 in Taiwan, China) • Japan 1 • ROK 1 • Pakistan 1 • Iran 1 • Russia 5 • Ukraine 2 • Bulgaria 2 • Romania 1 • Finland 1 • Argentina 1 Seminar 6Feb2007

  5. From 1990 through 2004, global nuclear electricity production increased ~40% Seminar 6Feb2007

  6. Age distribution (327/435 over or equal to 20) Seminar 6Feb2007

  7. Capacity with 100% license renewal 120,000 Current licensed capacity (w/o license renewal) 100,000 Megawatts 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2040 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2045 2050 1960 2055 Long-term operation • Life = Components specific (degradation, obsoleteness) • Monitoring and replacement • “License Renewal” (US), “Periodic Safety Review” (Europe) • Coupled with power uprating, enhancing capacity US projection Seminar 6Feb2007

  8. Long-term operation Projection in France Source : EDF, ENC 2002 Seminar 6Feb2007

  9. Support to informed decision-making on Plant Life Management Guideline for PLiM Guideline for aging management Support to Informed decision-making on PLiM by Member States TC Monitoring, Inspection & Maintenance Assessment method on Integrity of Structure, System and Components Database Seminar 6Feb2007

  10. Global trend on nuclear power Nuclear Power Reactors Characteristics of nuclear power option Future projections Introducing Nuclear Power Seminar 6Feb2007

  11. Typical Nuclear Power Plant • Nuclear Island • Nuclear Reaction • Fuel • Controls • Heat transport • Pumps & Valves • Heat Exchangers • Electrical, Controls • Safety Systems • (for key safety functions) Turbine Island Power conversion system - Turbine & Generator - Pumps, heat exchangers - Controls Seminar 6Feb2007

  12. Reactor types • Classification by neutron energy spectrum • Fast neutron reactor • Thermal neutron reactor • Classification bycoolant • Gas-cooled (CO2, Helium) • Water-cooled (Heavy water, Light water) • Liquid Metal-cooled (Sodium, Lead, Lead-Bismuth etc) • Molten salt-cooled • 435 commercial reactor in operation (as of today) • 264 PWR, 93 BWR, 42 PHWR, 18 GCR, 16 LWGR(RBMK), 2 FR • Non-conventional concepts • Gas-core reactor • Accelerator Driven System (sub-critical) Seminar 6Feb2007

  13. Nuclear Fuel • Fuel style • pellets in rods • coated particle • molten-salt etc. • Fissile Material • Uranium • Thorium • Plutonium etc. pellet Fuel Assembly Reactor LWR (Light Water Reactor) fuel One pellet (1cm x 1cm) can produce 3000 KWhr (0.8 x yearly consumption in one household in Japan) Coated particle fuel Seminar 6Feb2007

  14. Fission process and released energy Neutron Fissile material Scattered Absorbed - capture - fission Neutron Fission Products 1 fission releases 200 MeV 1 D-D fusion reaction releases 3.27 MeV 1 chemical reaction (burning fossil) releases several eV LWR power density in the reactor core : 50-100 KWth/liter Solar power : use 1.3 kwth/sq. meter Seminar 6Feb2007

  15. What produces energy in LWR? Fissile material composition changes with burnup Uranium fuel produces Plutonium by U238 absorbing neutron. Seminar 6Feb2007

  16. Neutron interaction with fissile material depends on neutron energy Higher potential for fission in lower neutron energy region High potential of capture by U238 between fast and thermal Seminar 6Feb2007

  17. Distribution of neutron energy in nuclear reactor Neutron energy U235 neutron interaction capability in thermal neutron region Pu239 RED = fission BLUE = absorption Pu241 Seminar 6Feb2007

  18. Potential for producing more fuel than is consumed • Condition for breeding : more than 2 neutron produced • Possible for • Fast neutron (U235, Pu239 , U233) (Fast reactor) • Thermal neutron (U233) (Use Th as fertile) Nr. of neutrons produced by fission Neutron Energy [eV] Seminar 6Feb2007

  19. MOST ELECTRICITY IS PRODUCED BY TURNING AN ELECTRIC GENERATOR Seminar 6Feb2007

  20. Evolution of reactor technology-US classification of reactor technology by generation- Seminar 6Feb2007

  21. Current trends in reactor design evolution • Designed considering “User requirements” • Design considering 60 years life • Design for maintenance – online or during outage • Design for easier & shorter construction • Use modern technologies - digital control, modern man-machine interface, - computer-aided design - safety system design guided by Probabilistic Safety assessment etc. • Simplicity by reducing Nr. & rotating components • Build safety into the design - increased margins - severe accident measures • Complete and standardized designs with pre-licensing Seminar 6Feb2007

  22. Simplicity - case of BWR steam generating system- Evolutionary with Active Safety Innovative with Passive Safety Generation 3 & 3+ Current or Generation 1 & 2 Seminar 6Feb2007

  23. Shorter construction period Seminar 6Feb2007

  24. Modern man-machine interface • Modern Control Room • Large mimic display • Trend display • Operating console with touch screen • - Other ergonomic considerations Old Control Rooms Seminar 6Feb2007

  25. Global trend on nuclear power Nuclear Power Reactors Characteristics of nuclear power option - Resources - GHG emission - Potential for non-electric application - Economics Future projections Introducing Nuclear Power Seminar 6Feb2007

  26. 1. Resources Uranium resources • “Uranium 2005” by OECD/NEA and IAEA • Total identified 4.7 Million Ton (<USD130/Kg U) • Total undiscovered (Prognosticated & speculative) • 10 Million Ton (<USD130/Kg U) • Current consumption = 68,000 Ton/year for 360GWe • R/P with comfortable margin • Closed fuel cycle using FR further extends this margin • R/P (total conventional) R/P (conventional & phosphate) • LWR 270 years 675 years • Fast Reactor 8000 years ~20,000 years • Seawater 4500 Million Tons Source: Uranium 2005 Seminar 6Feb2007

  27. 2. GHG emission CO2 emission rates from electricity generation [SOURCE] EC, External Costs – Research Results on Socio-Environmental Damages due to Electricity and Transport, EC Study EUR 20198, Brussels, 2003 CCS: Carbon Capture & Storage Seminar 6Feb2007

  28. Stabilizing CO2 emission rates from Diversifying generation source TEPCO, Japan [SOURCE] TEPCO Environmental Report Seminar 6Feb2007

  29. 3. Non-electric applications • Most of the world’s energy consumption : heat and transportation. • Nuclear Energy has potential for use in these energy sectors currently served by fossil fuels (price volatility and finite supply) without emitting GHG. • Applications • High temperature (900-1100 deg C) • Hydrogen (energy carrier) production • Coal liquefaction • Medium temperature (400-600 deg C) • Recovery of oil from tar sand • Chemical processing • Low temperature (less than 200 deg C) • Desalination • District heating Energy consumption by application Seminar 6Feb2007

  30. 4. Economics of nuclear power • New plants • Levelized cost study : OECD/NEA and IAEA (2005) • least cost optionby levelized cost (25-40 years) in recent European country studies (Finland, UK, Belgium, France) • Before amortization, not necessarily a preferred option • University of Chicago Study (August 2004) proposed federal financial policies for new nuclear plan • Energy Policy Act of 2005 (USA) • “External” cost • Nuclear power: most ‘external’ costs are internalized • Comparative Assessment including externality • Climate change • Energy security Seminar 6Feb2007

  31. U.S. Electricity “Production Costs”(amortization not included)1995-2005 (Averages in 2005 cents per kilowatt-hour) Capacity factor (up) Refueling outage duration (down) Forced outage rate (down) Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Seminar 6Feb2007

  32. The impact of the emission trading on the electricity generation cost (Prof. Voß , Univ. of Stuttgart) Seminar 6Feb2007

  33. Global trend on nuclear power Nuclear Power Reactors Characteristics of nuclear power option Future projections Introducing Nuclear Power Seminar 6Feb2007

  34. IAEA’s high projections Seminar 6Feb2007

  35. Nuclear Power in IPCC-SRES 4 storylines by 2050 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) Convergence among regions Heterogeneous world Local solution Emphasis on global social & environmental sustainability Seminar 6Feb2007

  36. Ambitious near-term expansion plans Declared near-term deployment plans(different in various sources ) • CURRENT (% of total production)NEAR-TERM EXPANSIONPLAN • (Asia) China 6.6 GWe (2.03%) 40 GWe (4%) by 2020 x 6 …2x 1000 MWe plant/year India 3.0 GWe (2.8%) 29.5 GWe (10%) by 2022 x 9 ROK 16.8 GWe (44.7%) 26.6 GWe by 2015 x 1.6 Pakistan 0.4 GWe (2.8%) 8.5 GWe by 2030 x 20 • (Eastern Europe) Russia 21.7 GWe (15.8%) 40 GWe (25%) by 2020 x 2 Ukraine: 13.1 GWe (48.5%) 20-22 GWe by 2030 x 1.5 Seminar 6Feb2007

  37. NuStart—Bellefonte (AL) Hearing Progress Energy—Harris (NC) Hearing Duke—Cherokee (SC) Hearing South Carolina E&G—Summer Hearing Progress Energy—TBD (FL) Hearing Hearing Vogtle ESP Southern—Vogtle (GA) Hearing North Anna ESP Hearing Dominion—North Anna (VA) Hearing Hearing Grand Gulf ESP NuStart—Grand Gulf (MS) Hearing Entergy—River Bend (LA) Hearing Amarillo Power Hearing Unannounced Applicant ESP Hearing FPL No Site or Vendor Specified Hearing NRG Energy—South Texas Project Hearing Duke ESP Hearing Duke ESP Hearing Unannounced Applicant COL Hearing US New Reactor Licensing Applications 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Design Cert AP 1000 Program Review Design Certification ESBWR Program Review Design Certification UniStar—Calvert Cliffs (MD) Hearing UniStar—EPR—COL 3 Hearing EPR Program Review UniStar—EPR—COL 4 Hearing UniStar—EPR—COL 5 Hearing UniStar—Nine Mile Pt (NY) Hearing ABWR Program Review Unspecified Clinton ESP Hearing Courtesy of Mr. Wang, Bechtel Seminar 6Feb2007

  38. rising expectation : background and prospect Background; Recognition of nuclear power as an important option in the nation’s future energy portfolio • Confidence from operational trend (Stable and competitive in many places around the world) • Growing need for energy in developing countries • Environmental concern (GHG emission, air pollution) • Concern over energy supply security Expansion will depend on; • Diligence and vigilance in safe operation of current fleet • Continued vigilance in safeguard • Economic competitiveness, Financing arrangement • Implementation of waste disposal • Public perception • Individual nation’s policy on environment, security etc. Seminar 6Feb2007

  39. Agency’s approach in providing support • Recommend comprehensive assessment of infrastructure preparedness to avoid missing factors for effective implementation of NE plan to achieve the use of NE in safe, secure, technically sound manner • Recommend the use of relevant Agency’s document • Recommend regional approach for efficiency • Through TCP (if TC recipient country) • Inter-departmental coordinated response Nuclear Power Support Group (NPSG) • To ensure coordinated response to MS request for support • To share information in the Agency etc. Seminar 6Feb2007

  40. Agency’s ongoing/planned activities • Guidance documents • Released “Basic infrastructure for a nuclear power projects” (TECDOC 1513, June 2006) • Released “Potential for sharing nuclear power infrastructure between countries(TECDOC 1522, October 2006) • Preparing publication of new documents • Planning for the first NPP (yet-to-be-published) • Milestone document (yet-to-be-drafted) and associated measuring index • Assessment of all previously developed Agency documentation & update : ongoing Seminar 6Feb2007

  41. Milestones in the matrix form By the time of: • Formal Intention To Implement Nuclear Power Program • Ready to issue Invitation To Bid • Ready for Commercial Operation Expected preparedness and competency in key areas of; • Legal Framework/Regulatory Framework • Managing Organization • Training and Human Resources • Sites & Supporting Facilities • Financial arrangement • Public understanding/Public involvement in decision-making • Grid • Fuel cycle • Safeguards and security applications etc. • Use : MS’s self-assessment & review by international experts for assessment of the preparedness, prioritization & identification • of areas for further work/Agency’s cooperation Seminar 6Feb2007

  42. Agency’s ongoing/planned activities • TCP (Technical Cooperation Project) for new build • Current : 6 TCP including coupling with desalination • 2007-8 : 12 countries plus 2 regional projects • Response to specific requests • Workshops and Conferences • “Issues for the Introduction of Nuclear Power” (Dec2006) • Similar workshop planned for 2007 w/focus on milestone doc. • Regional workshops planned • Participation to regional conferences on NE • 2nd Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century • Institutional arrangements • International cooperation in Fuel cycle, Licensing, Financing … Seminar 6Feb2007

  43. SUMMARY • New capacity addition dwindled after mid 80’s • Increased availability • Active programme for plant life management and power uprating • Technology evolution continues • Globally growing interest to the role of nuclear power • Agency’s support to developing country’s infrastructure building through; • Guidance documents and review/support missions • Workshops and Conferences • TCP under inter-departmental coordination Seminar 6Feb2007

  44. …Thank you for your attention Seminar 6Feb2007

  45. Guideline documents to assist the first NPP Plan • Already published in the last 20+ years, but needs updating • TRS 224 “Interaction of Grid Characteristics with Design and performance of NPPs (1983) • TRS-392 “Design Features to Facilitate Safeguards at Future Water Cooled NPPS” (1981) • TRS 200 “Manpower Development for Nuclear Power: (1980). • Introduction of Nuclear Power: A Guidebook, TRS No. 217 (1982) • Promotion and Financing of Nuclear Power Programmes in Developing Countries, (1987) • TRS 281 “Developing Industrial Infrastructures to Support a Programme of Nuclear Power” (1988) • Policy Planning for Nuclear Power: An Overview of the Main Issues and Requirements (1993) • Choosing the Nuclear Power Option: Factors to be considered (1996) • TRS No. 396 “Economic Evaluation of Bids for NPPs” ( 1999) • TecDoc 1259 “Nuclear Power Programme Planning : An Integrated Approach “ (2001) Seminar 6Feb2007

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