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  1. Independent Petroleum Association of America “Mid-Year Meeting and Executive Conference” India and the Global Energy Market An Overview Presented by Juli A. MacDonald Naples, Florida June 14, 2006 Client Logo

  2. Road Map India’s Energy Situation Indian Initiatives to Address its Energy Situation Strategic Significance of India’s Actions Commercial Opportunities in India Filename/RPS Number

  3. India and the Global Energy Market India’s Energy Situation 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 1972 1974 1976 1978 Coal Oil Gas Hydro Comb. Renew & Waste India is a nation of a billion people and gross domestic product of 720 Billion USD in 2005 that still relies on traditional fuels such as wood and waste for about 40% of its primary energy supply. India Population (Millions) and GDP (Billions 2000 USD) (1990-2003) India Total Primary Energy Supply* (Ktoe) (1972-2002) CAGR (Pop): 1.89% (GDP): 5.57% Population GDP Source: Population & GDP—EIA International Energy Annual 2003; Primary Energy Supply—IEA Energy Statistics 2004

  4. India and the Global Energy Market India’s Energy Situation Demand for hydrocarbons increase as the Indian economy modernizes and adds capacity. India Hydrocarbon Consumption (1015 BTU) 1990-2003 India Vehicle Sales (Thousand Sales) 1990-2004 India “Golden Quadrilateral” Interstate Highway (Scheduled 2007) Gas Oil Coal India Installed Electric Capacity (Million Kilowatts) 1990-2003 India Industrial Production Index (1993=100) 1993-2004 Share of Manufacturing in Total Economic Output 2005 16% 35% Manufacturing Only Industrial Production India China 29% 31% Korea Malaysia Source: Consumption & Electric Capacity—EIA International Energy Annual 2003; Vehicle Sales-Government of India Ministry of Roads and Transport; Industrial Production Indiex—India Info Online (www. indiainfoline.com) -

  5. India and the Global Energy Market India’s Energy Situation India’s energy efficiency per dollar of GDP is below Western standards. Domestic fuel subsidies are falling but price controls limit efficiency gains at the expense of India’s state-owned refiners. Energy Intensity per GDP (BTU / year 2000 USD) 1990-2003 Annual Fuel Subsidies (Million Rupees) 2000-2004 Reported Loss per Liter (year 2000 USD) 2005 2.5 Combined Loss: 51 Million USD/Day Note: * LPG loss reported as per cylinder, not liter. Source: Energy Intensity—International Energy Agency International Energy Outlook 2005; Fuel Subsidies—Government of IndiaMinistry of Petroleum; Reported Loss—”Burnout: Oil Cos Lose $51m per day” Economic Times (May 18, 2006)

  6. India and the Global Energy Market India’s Energy Situation Production Reserves Consumption Moderate increases in India’s domestic production of hydrocarbons have not kept pace with increased consumption. India Oil Reserves and Production & Consumption (Billion Barrels and Thousand Barrels /Day)1990-2003 India Natural Gas Reserves and Production & Consumption (Trillion Cubic Feet) 1990-2004 Source: EIA International Energy Annual 2003; Reserves estimates from Oil & Gas Journal

  7. India and the Global Energy Market Indian Initiatives to Address its Energy Situation The Indian Government is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy to address its energy security concerns. • Attract foreign investment to increase domestic production • Pursue internal and external measures to become a regional supplier of refined products • Promote oil diplomacy as part of national foreign policy agenda • Reconfigure state-owned companies to pursue oil diplomacy objectives • Secure supply through investments in oil and gas projects around the world

  8. India and the Global Energy Market Indian Initiatives to Address its Energy Situation India seeks to attract private investors to increase domestic production of oil and natural gas. Investors in India’s Oil and Gas Sector Through NELP India inducted the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) in 1999 to attract greater private investment in the exploration & production of oil and natural gas • Awarding NELP blocks to technically capable companies that offer the best terms for production sharing agreements • Allowing 100% foreign ownership and offering new tax incentives to investors • Attracting private investors to develop oil and gas resources (see Table) • Paying off for investors--Cairn Energy and Niklko Resources both reported major discoveries from early investments 48 Source: NELP investor data compiled from India’s Directorate General of Hydrocarbon’s website: http://www.dghindia.org/index.htm

  9. India and the Global Energy Market Indian Initiatives to Address its Energy Situation India seeks to increase competition in its domestic retail markets for refined products and to establish itself as a regional supplier of refined products. Reliance Industries • Introducing competition in domestic retail market • Increasing domestic refining capacity to supply regional markets through private and state-funded investments • Pursuing interests in refining projects in Algeria, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia • Jamnagar Refinery: 680,000 b/d capacity in the process of adding 580,000 b/d new capacity. • Added 600 new domestic retail locations to existing 1,300 locations • Ras Issa Refinery (Yemen): 60,000 b/d refinery on Red Sea India Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Million Barrels / Day) 1990-2006 State-Owned Companies • Operate 17 of India’s 18 refineries • Will add 3,200 new retail locations in 2006. Already own 29,300 locations (94% of the market) • ONGC likely to invest in Algeria’s Sonatrach refinery • Saudi Arabia may acquire stakes in Visakh and Paradip facilities 269,700 b/d of refined product exports in 2002 Source: Distillation Capacity—EIA Compilation of Oil & Gas Journal Reports; Reliance—Reuters News (May 2006); State-Owned—India Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas http://petroleum.nic.in/

  10. India and the Global Energy Market Indian Initiatives to Address its Energy Situation Active oil diplomacy is a central component of India’s energy security policy and an instrument of Indian national power. • National champions pursue oil diplomacy with major producers and Asian consumers • ONGC’s international subsidiary state-owned ONGC Videsh actively investing worldwide • Indian government created a new international subsidiary for the state-owned company OIL in December 2005 • Energy diplomacy features MOUs/high-level agreements with major suppliers and consumers and multilateral approaches • MOUs signed with Iran, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Nigeria • Energy agreement with China (December 2005) to promote cooperation in the market • Promoter of Asian grid for energy flows • Convener of multilateral fora to discuss Asian energy markets and contracts “Oil diplomacy is currently seen as a major tool for ensuring India’s energy security along with acquisition of equity oil & gas overseas.” Government of India Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy Draft Report (December 2005) Source: OIL Videsh—The Economic Times (November 28, 2005); Oil Diplomacy—Financial Express (March 12, 2005)

  11. India and the Global Energy Market Indian Initiatives to Address its Energy Situation ONGC Videsh Ltd. OIL Videsh Ltd. Reliance Industries Indian companies are investing globally to explore and develop oil and natural gas assets. India Overseas E&P Assets 2006 Source: Company Websites

  12. India and the Global Energy Market Strategic Significance of India’s Actions India’s activities conflict with United States and European interests in some regions. Investments in Pariah States India Investment in U.S. Designated “Pariah” States • Indian companies investing in states subject to U.S. sanctions • Attractive due to lack of competition from major international oil companies • India’s foreign policy interests at odds with the United States’ in some regions Cuba, Sudan, Iran, Myanmar Asian Market Power Middle East Oil Exports by Region (Million Barrels /Day) 2002 & 2030 • Vocal advocate of bundling market power of Asian consumers to increase their influence with Middle East suppliers and avoid paying premium • As Middle East importance grows as source of supply in long-term, competition for access to Middle East crude represents potential source of tension between East and West North America North America 10 2 Europe 3 12 7 28 Europe Asia Asia Source: Investments—Company Websites; Exports by Region-- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004.

  13. India and the Global Energy Market Strategic Significance of India’s Actions In contrast to China’s perceived mercantilist approach, Indian companies tend to rely on rather than distrust international markets. • India’s initiatives are market-oriented and official positions suggest comfort with the market • Actions suggest faith in contracts and current system • New futures market in Mumbai to provide instruments to hedge price risks • Oil diplomacy often contract based (e.g., in Saudi Arabia) • Approach to overseas investments based on commercial interests • Policy-makers stress bottom line and set profit requirement • Recommended target of 66% of overseas projects financed with private capital • Recommend policy of securitization of overseas assets to private investors to ensure investments are commercially sound “To the extent that India owns that oil abroad, whether it is brought to India or sold in the international market, the value remains the same. Thus obtaining equity oil abroad should be mainly looked upon as a commercial investment decision.” Government of India Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy Draft Report (December 2005)

  14. India and the Global Energy Market Commercial Opportunities Oil Natural Gas India’s market-orientation presents opportunities for foreign companies in Indian market. Investors, Enhanced Oil Recovery, Offshore Recent Major Oil and Gas Discoveries • India seeks bidders for its domestic industry. • Investor Road Show stopped in London, Houston, Dubai, Perth, and Calgary in early 2006. • Indian companies seek to improve average oil recovery rate of 25%. • India seeks to develop its offshore resources. Cairn Energy operates Rajasthan exploration discovered 380-700 million recoverable barrels in 2005. NELP VI • PFC Energy rated India a bright prospect for E&P • Creation of a new petroleum and natural gas regulatory board • Promising gas and petroleum discoveries. • Attracting interest of companies such as British Gas, Shell, and Premiere Oil Reliance operates exploration (Niko Resources partner) of Krishna-Godavari discovered 14 trillion cubic feet natural gas in 2002 Source: Company Interest—Lloyd’s List (April 11, 2006); Discoveries—India’s Directorate General of Hydrocarbon’s website http://www.dghindia.org; Oil Recovery—Lloyd’s List (October 22, 2004); Offshore—Oil&Gas Journal (January 16, 2006)

  15. Back-up Filename/RPS Number

  16. India and the Global Energy Market Indian Initiatives to Address its Energy Situation State-Owned Companies Private Companies 48 53 India seeks to attract private investors to enhance domestic production of oil and natural gas. India inducted the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) in 1999 to attract greater private investment in the exploration & production of oil and natural gas Operators of NELP Issued Blocks Source: NELP investor data compiled from India’s Directorate General of Hydrocarbon’s website: http://www.dghindia.org/index.htm

  17. India and the Global Energy Market Indian Initiatives to Address its Energy Situation ONGC Videsh Ltd. OIL Videsh Ltd. Reliance Industries Indian companies operate overseas in the exploration and development of oil and natural gas assets. Sakhalin 1: ONGC development (Exxon Operator)—250,000 b/d in 2006 India Overseas E&P Assets 2006 Iran: ONGC operates Farsi Offshore exploration—540MMbbls estimated Syria: ONGC development (Al Farat Operator)—220,000 b/d in 2005 Myanmar: ONGC exploration (Daewoo Operator)—4 TCF Natural Gas discovered 2004 Ivory Coast: ONGC exploration (Sinopec Operates) Qatar: ONGC operates Najwat Najem exploration Cuba:ONGC exploration (Repsol Operates) 6 Blocks Sudan: ONGC development (CNPC Operates)—3 MM barrels/day Yemen: Reliance development (CalValley Operates) Block 9 Venezuela:ONGC development (PdVSA Operates) San Cristobal Libya:ONGC exploration (TPAO Operates) NC188-89 Libya:IOC & OIL operate exploration of Sirte Basin block Vietnam: ONGC exploration (British Gas Operator))—2 TCF Natural Gas discovered 2000 Oman: Reliance operates exploration Block 18 Iraq: ONGC operates exploration in Block 8 Source: Company Websites