Objectives Predict the Response of a Facility to Attack by Military or Terrorist Weapons

2. Facility Vulnerability Analysis • Objectives • Predict the Response of a Facility to Attack by Military or Terrorist Weapons • Develop Response Models for use as Targeting Aids • Program Started in 1995 • Primary Sponsor DTRA • Other Current Sponsors: • DIA • NRC

3. Visual Interactive Site Analysis CodeVISAC Integrates the Following Functions in one Code • Facility Kill Probability • Facility Core Melt Probability • Facility Downtime Estimates • Facility Model Editor • Event/Fault Tree Editor • Provides: • Facility Damage/Consequence Contour Maps • VERY FAST “what if”Analysis for Various Accident/Incident Scenarios

4. VISAC – Truck Bomb

5. Aerial Attack

6. Terrorist Attacks Against American Targets Using Car-Bomb Technology

7. Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code for Facility Vulnerability Analysis

8. User Describes Attack (Incidents) • Defined Accident – specific systems fail • Component Damage – individual components fail with specified probabilities • Region Damage – all components in an area fail • Quick Blast – place any size charge, weapon, truck bomb, etc. inside or outside of a building using TNT, C4,, etc. • Multiple incidents can be specified with any combination or timing

9. Facility Models – Basic and Detailed • Geometry • Based on BRL-CAD format • Facilities consist of buildings made of concrete walls • Critical components inside or outside buildings • Logic • Critical components grouped together into fault trees for each system • Event trees group together the systems and evaluate consequences • Multiple aspects can be examined at once (facility kill, core damage, fire, etc)

10. Current Facilities – Basic Models

11. Current Facilities – Detailed Models

12. Midsize Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

13. Reprocessing Plant MBLM Code Aerosol Release Resulting Temperatures and Pressures

14. Russian Designed Power Reactor

15. A Detailed Facility

16. VISAC Output • Consequence probabilities for each event tree • Failure probabilities for each fault tree system • Facility downtime estimate • Release information (for HPAC) • Lists of walls broken and hole size estimates An Example • 3500 lbs TNT truck bomb outside of control room • 97.7% probability of a large early release • Facility would be unable to operate for 4 months

17. Graphical Presentation of VISAC Output

18. Grids of Blast Points – Threat Contours • Each library facility has 3 pre-calculated grids • User can search grids for specific outcomes • User can generate new grids for his own plants • Grid points can be used as incidents (attack points) • VISAC has automated grid creation for new plants

19. Three Ways To Use VISAC • View library facilities and their pre-calculated grids of blast points • use viewers to explore the geometry and logic • search grids for specific outcomes • Run “what-if” scenarios using different attacks on the library facilities • accidents, component damage, bomb blasts • find release probabilities, facility kill & downtime • Create a new facility based on the library model and add new buildings • model any aspect of facility operation • calculate grids of blast points • use just like a library facility

20. Facility Vulnerability Program Bob Morris Oak Ridge National Laboratory P.O. Box 2008 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6363 Phone: 865-576-5878 Fax: 865-574-9619 MorrisRH@ORNL.gov

21. BACK UP Slides

22. Model Fidelity Effect on Facility Vulnerability Results Building Level vs. Component Level Models Building Level Component Level

24. PWR Transient Event Tree

25. PWR LOCA Event Tree

26. PWR LOOP Event Tree

27. PWR LPLA Event Tree

28. Fault Trees for Calculating Core Melt Probabilities