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Sea Wind Europe

Sea Wind Europe. Helen Snodin. BWEA Offshore 2004. Contents. 1. Background 2. Scope 3. Findings 4. What does it mean?. Background. Greenpeace Question. Could offshore wind energy become a core part of Europe’s energy supplies? Could this be achieved by the end of the next decade?

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Sea Wind Europe

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  1. Sea Wind Europe Helen Snodin BWEA Offshore 2004 1044\BT\## 1

  2. Contents 1. Background 2. Scope 3. Findings 4. What does it mean? 1044\BT\## 2

  3. Background 1044\BT\## 3

  4. Greenpeace Question • Could offshore wind energy become a core part of Europe’s energy supplies? • Could this be achieved by the end of the next decade? • As well as the global environmental benefits, would it bring other benefits to Europe? • What would need to happen along the way? • A focus on identifying, and overcoming, obstacles 1044\BT\## 4

  5. Premise • Why is it not already obvious? • Global environmental benefits accepted • Sceptics not convinced it can make it in the real world • ….so, work through challenges one by one • Show by example and logic 1044\BT\## 5

  6. Approach • Deliberately bold • Start with a target – 30% - and work back • Tease out challenges and actions • Result – if this is what we want, it will not be possible unlesss…. 1044\BT\## 6

  7. Scope 1044\BT\## 7

  8. Chapters • What are the implications for… • Growth rates • Sea-bed take / scale of development • Investment • Technology • Costs • Grid • Social issues 1044\BT\## 8

  9. Findings 1044\BT\## 9

  10. Growth Rates SeaWind Europe postulated offshore wind growth BTM predictions IEA predictions Wind energy to-date 1044\BT\## 10

  11. Growth Rates • Growth in wind energy terms looks achiveable • In offshore terms, it is very ambitious • Installation volumes are very large at steeper parts of curve • Major constraint is the number of projects coming through the permitting system 1044\BT\## 11

  12. Scale of development 1044\BT\## 12

  13. Where will the investment come from? 1044\BT\## 13

  14. Investment: current • In today’s markets, commercial-sector investment a necessity • With exception of Middelgrunden, investment to-date has been on balance sheet. Private equity structures emerging for some German projects. • Traditional model for wind is project finance. • Commercial banks will invest as financial risks defined. • There is a gap where uncertainty remains, which will be repeated as projects move into deeper/ more exposed environments and as technology develops. 1044\BT\## 14

  15. Investment: future • On average, would require €14-24 Billion per year capital investment (wind is capital intensive) • SeaWind Europe would represent a significant proportion of all project finance deals, but is comparable to the scale of investment in energy sectors. • New finance structures (for wind sector) for offshore wind? • Other sectors have momentum. There needs to be a “belief” that there will always be a market for offshore wind. • A clear role for institutional banks to bridge some of the investment gaps 1044\BT\## 15

  16. Technology Reinforced plastics Everyday use in manufactured goods, esp. similar to composition in aerospace and boat-building. SeaWind Europe would require growth in specialist wind industry suppliers. If C-reinforced blades grow, longer lead-times required. Steel Predominant in heavy engineering, high recycled component. World steel suppliers & manufacturers need new markets – ready-made facilities Steel and/or concrete 1044\BT\## 16

  17. Making use of existing skills and facilities Sif Shipyard, Holland A2Sea, Nysted Isleburn, Scotland Burmeister & Wain Shipyard, Denmark 1044\BT\## 17

  18. Investment: future • On average, would require €14-24 Billion per year capital investment (wind is capital intensive) • SeaWind Europe would represent a significant proportion of all project finance deals, but is comparable to the scale of investment in energy sectors. • New finance structures (for wind sector) for offshore wind? • Other sectors have momentum. There needs to be a “belief” that there will always be a market for offshore wind. • A clear role for institutional banks to bridge some of the investment gaps 1044\BT\## 18

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