Change of program

1. Change of program • Implementation Plan. T. Satomura • Current status of and contribution by NICAM. T. Matsuno & T. Nasuno (~ 20 min) • Comments. J. Shukla • Discussion • Break

2. Implementation Plan for the AMY modeling activity- summary and missing items in draft- T. Satomura

3. AMY objectives related to model • Coordinated efforts on modeling and prediction experiments are required. • Target area (anywhere?) and period (when IOP?) • Related AMY objectives are • Determining the predictability of the Asian monsoon on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales. • Determining the roles of land initialization in prediction of warm season precipitation especially over the land. • Development of a hydro-meteorological prediction system (with lead time up to a season) in Southeast Asia. • Better understanding of O-A-L-B interaction: multi-time-scale interaction from diurnal to inter-annual

4. Modeling activity is grouped into • AGCM/CGCM prediction of MISO • Seasonal prediction/predictability • High-resolution model and development of hydro-met prediction system • Regional reanalysis: with data group?

5. AGCM/CGCM prediction of MISO • We should focus on improved representation of convection in models, design diagnostic studies for the behavior of convection in models, with appropriate observations to support model improvement of convection. • In order to determine predictability and predictive skills of the Asian monsoon on intraseasonal time scales, monitoring and assessment of real time medium/extended range (1-30 days) predictions of the MJO using CGCM will be continued (BMR). • Short-term simulations up to seasonal change using a global cloud resolving model will be accomplished and help understanding roles of convection in monsoon ISO including MJO and tropical cyclogenesis. • Taking advantage of metrics for diagnostic analysis. • Encouraging an organized effort to pursue prediction of monsoon ISO. For boreal summer and winter monsoon onset, active/break phases and retreat, both AGCMs and coupled GCMs can be used. Both hindcast and real time prediction are encouraged. • Efforts to encourage operation centers doing organized prediction experiments of MJO and MISO.

6. Seasonal prediction/predictability • Improve atmosphere-ocean initial conditions and develop coupled ocean-atmosphere-land data assimilation. • Improve and develop new reanalysis datasets that use new satellite observations and Argo observations. (Global & regional) • Promote model and observation studies for understanding of predictability of monsoon. Particular importance is to examine impact of land-ocean initialization on monthly to seasonal prediction. • Consider making an organized analysis of existing hindcast datasets through APCC/CliPAS project and the planned WCRP Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), identifying a range of suitable metrics relating to the AAM for application to the outputs • To assess seasonal prediction skills and identify common weakness of the current dynamic predictions of the Asian monsoon • To determine the predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole which is an objective of the Indian Ocean Panel • To study the role of the MJO in the onset of the (1997) El Niño, which is a joint effort between AAMP and Pacific Panel (PP).

7. continued • To propose of a coordinated hindcast experiment within the Asian monsoon community on the impact of land surface initialization and land-atmosphere interaction on the prediction of Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the continental regions to determine the roles of land initialization in continental seasonal rainfall prediction. • Using CGCMs, predictability of coupled variability in Indian Ocean (including IOD, oceanic ENSO teleconnections, and monsoon/ENSO interaction) and its sensitivity to ocean and land initial conditions will be determined. Impact of ocean assimilation system on prediction of ENSO, IOD, ENSO-monsoon interaction and monsoon onset will be also studied. The engaged models in this direction are POAMA, MRI-CGCM and so on. Regional modeling activity in the same direction will be also continued.

8. High-resolution models and hydro-met pred. system • Process studies on geographical variation of monsoon rainfall in time scales from diurnal to intraseasonal ranges by RM and HR-GCM. • Mechanisms and processes for the onset and maintenance of the summer monsoon. • Diurnal variations of summer convection. • Short-term climate simulation of summer rainfall. • Climate change scenarios for summer rainfall. • Mechanisms and processes for the winter monsoon over South China, South Asia and Southeast Asia. • Local climate and its connections to ENSO and Indian dipole mode. • MJO and its interaction with shorter/smaller scales over maritime continent. • By using very high resolution AGCMs • Extreme event projection and evaluation and reduction of uncertainty in global warming projection • Prediction and evaluatation of disaster environment • Assessment climate-change impacts on flood risk and its reduction measures on global and local scales • Using a global cloud-resolving model (ex. NICAM), short-term simulations up to season will be accomplished to understand hydro-meteorological systems.

9. continued • It is recommended that coordinated multi-high resolution model ensemble experiments be organized to investigate sub-seasonal to interannual factors that influence extreme events, such as tropical cyclones, severe droughts, devastating floods. The propose by S. Schubert at NASA forms a very useful starting point for developing high resolution modeling activity. • Encourage application of regional models to sensitivity studies of parameterization schemes and to the monsoon prediction problem and monsoon climate change issues. • Utilize regional climate models to generating local information from seasonal prediction and climate change projection products of global coarse-resolution models for use in impact assessment • Study impacts of aerosols on radiation budget and regional climate • Direct impacts of aerosols to the monsoon • Smoke haze model for Asian monsoon region

10. Summary of missing items in planning part • Target areas (SEA? EA? SA?) and periods (summer? winter? 2008? hindcast?) and themes (diurnal to ISV?, all time scales?) for coordinated modeling activity • Better understanding of O-A-L-B interaction: multi-time-scale interaction from diurnal to inter-annual: now it is difficult. (Possible: among limited time-scales or in some regions or by piecewisey) • Concrete plan to develop hydro-met prediction system • Global and regional reanalysis group is not included (Will Shukla talk?)

11. Cooperation wit data analysis groups

13. Comments by Shukla • Muti-time scale interaction: difficult • Need dynamical prediction system • Need tuning for NICAM

14. Analysis of operational NWP (~10d) products • Onset predictability • Predictability of disturbances • Case study using NICAM • Same for monthly & seasonal products • Predictability of MJO and ISO (operational, TFSP) • HR 45d forecasts (NASA, APCC)

15. Coordinated seasonal monsoon hindcast experiments with coupled O-L-A-Chemistry models (MRI, IAP, Korea, CCSR can) • Land, vegetation, snow initialization • Ocean, sea-ice initialization • Green house gas, aerosol initialization • Coordinated decadal monsoon predictability experiments • Relative importance of internal climate dynamics versus GHG forcing • Analysis of AR4 and CMIP mode outputs