1 / 17

Sfc cyclone ~500 km SSE of Guam. Rain and widespread clouds in the vicinity moving WNW.

Forecast Summary. Sfc cyclone ~500 km SSE of Guam. Rain and widespread clouds in the vicinity moving WNW. Showers with tops to 30kft near Guam heading towards us (about 100 nmi to the ESE).

almira
Download Presentation

Sfc cyclone ~500 km SSE of Guam. Rain and widespread clouds in the vicinity moving WNW.

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Forecast Summary • Sfc cyclone ~500 km SSE of Guam. Rain and widespread clouds in the vicinity moving WNW. • Showers with tops to 30kft near Guam heading towards us (about 100 nmi to the ESE). • The atmosphere is moister and more unstable than earlier this week (CAPE of 700 this AM, 1600 last night). • Isolated/Scattered showers and T-storms are likely in the next few days. • Progs differ substantially, with GFS developing the system aggressively, and other models dissipating it. • JTWC concludes no further development. Since the progs on the system south of us are uncertain, prog details are even less trustworthy than usual.

  2. Yesterday and This Mornings IR - Increased moisture and instability. Convection at 8N-12N 145E-155E 2-20 Thu, 5AM 2-21 Fri, 5AM Less Organized. More moisture > 10 N

  3. 11:30 AM, no deep organized convection nearby – replaced by region of instability Current picture: convection has become disorganized, but moisture and showers spreading northward Into our region.

  4. Noon radar pic Showers with tops near 30 kft 100 km moving westward, may pass south of us.

  5. Overnight at Andersen – Saturated but no precip. Thick cumulus to the SE. Calm before the storm? Pressure holding steady… No precip overnight at PGUA. Storms developed in the vicinity and moved N to the E and W of Guam.

  6. ‘current’ conditions: Last two soundings Thu 10AM Fri 10AM • Moist upper levels penetrating downward. • 12Z 20 Feb sounding has CAPE of 1593, CPT -86 (187K)

  7. Sat conditions (GFS): 1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-21, 18UTC (02-22 Sat, 04AM) ENE 10 knt • Sfc cyclone SE of Guam at 9N, 145E. New shear line developing. Strong NE’ly flow to the W.

  8. Sun conditions (GFS): 1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-22, 18UTC (02-23 Sun , 04AM) ENE 20 knt • Shear line approaching from the W as indicated by NE-SW rain band. Surface cyclone staying SE of Guam (9N, 145E).

  9. Mon conditions (GFS): 1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-23, 18UTC (02-24 Mon, 04AM) ENE 20 knt • Surface cyclone moves W but stays SSE of Guam (9N, 145E).

  10. Sat conditions (GFS): 850 hPa RH & winds on 2014-02-21, 18UTC (02-22 Sat, 04AM) • Moist unstable region over Guam

  11. Sun conditions (GFS): 850 hPa RH & winds on 2014-02-22, 18UTC (02-23 Sun , 04AM) • Moist unstable region over Guam

  12. Mon conditions (GFS): 850 hPa RH & winds on 2014-02-23, 18UTC (02-24 Mon, 04AM) • Low level cyclone moves W but stays SSE of Guam.

  13. Sunday and Monday Clouds remaining E of Guam 2-23 Sun, 10AM Conv outflow at 8N-12N 145E-155E but main Eq convection shifted back E 2-20 Thu, 5AM 2-24 Mon, 10AM 2-21 Fri, 5AM

  14. Long Range • Fate of cyclone is unknown. • Models project it to move S of Guam toward the W. • ECMWF keeps the cyclone weak as it drifts Wward • GFS develops it into a typhoon east of Yap. • Both increase moisture over the Marianas and have scattered showers likely Sun and Mon. Moister than normal conditions through middle of next week.

  15. GFS10 days

More Related