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Is Sugarcane a new driver of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Brazilian Savanna?

Is Sugarcane a new driver of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Brazilian Savanna?. Gabriel Granco Department of Geography. Goals. Brief description of the drivers of Sugarcane expansion to the Brazilian Savanna

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Is Sugarcane a new driver of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Brazilian Savanna?

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  1. Is Sugarcane a new driver of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Brazilian Savanna? Gabriel Granco Department of Geography

  2. Goals • Brief description of the drivers of Sugarcane expansion to the Brazilian Savanna • Demonstration of Sugarcane expansion and Land Use Change on the Brazilian Savanna

  3. Overview • Part I • Problem • Methods and Sources • Part II • Drivers • Land Use • Preliminary Conclusions

  4. Problem: Alternative to Fossil Fuel • Use of fossil fuel has serious consequences • Need to find alternative fuel • Sugarcane ethanol is the best alternative at the moment! • Reduces 60% - 80% of greenhouse gases compared to gasoline • Price competitive • Established production in Brazil • Brazil has land to expand its production • New problem: Does the expansion of sugarcane affect the Land Use and Land Cover of the Brazilian Savanna?

  5. Method and Sources • Method: • Literature Review and Data Analysis. • Data sources: • Key informant interview (CEO of Mills, Farmers, CEO of COOP) • Agricultural Census (IBGE) • Remote Sensing – Imagery Interpretation Canasat Project, INPE

  6. Sugarcane Ethanol in Brazil is not new!!! • First Blend Mandate in Brazil – 1933. Thousand m3 • Oil Crisis • Proalcool • Ethanol Car Source: Ipeadata; ANP; UNICA. Elaborated: Author

  7. São Paulo Consolidation • Technology • Market • Mills • Flex-Fuel Cars 2012 21% ofStatearea Source: Agricultural Census, IBGE.

  8. Socio-Environmental Problems

  9. Mechanization • Only operates with slopes <12% • Expensive • Rural unemployment • São Paulo State intent to eliminate burning practice until 2017 Mechanization and the competition for land increased operational cost

  10. Solution: New Frontier • Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul States • Part of the Brazilian Savanna • Traditional producers of soybeans, corn, and cattle

  11. Attractiveness of the New Frontier • Investments in roads and ethanol pipeline • Fiscal Incentives: tax postponement or exemption • Land Prices per hectare, 2012 Source: Agrianual, 2013

  12. Expansion Goiás Source: Canasat

  13. Land Use

  14. Expansion Mato Grosso do Sul Source: Canasat

  15. Land Use

  16. Preliminary conclusions: • Is Sugarcane a driver of LUC? Yes! Sugarcane is changing the land use on Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul • What is driving Sugarcane expansion: • Consolidation of São Paulo; • Land price; • Flat land; • Technology development; • Growing market

  17. Questions More information: ggranco@ksu.edu Acknowledgement: NSF project Collaborative Research: Land Change in Brazil's Cerrado: Ethanol and Sugarcane Expansion at the Farm and Industry Scale

  18. Expansion Goiás Source: Canasat

  19. Expansion Mato Grosso do Sul Source: Canasat

  20. County level data Fiscal incentives Source: Agricultural Census, IBGE

  21. County level data Fiscal incentives Source: Agricultural Census, IBGE

  22. Understanding dLUC dynamic for sugarcane expansion in the South-central region of Brazil over the period of 2000 – 2009. Adami et al. 2012

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