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New Sources of Global Risk

New Sources of Global Risk. WRMA June 26, 2006. Weather data issues in developing countries . Availability of historical data Cleaning historical data Reliability/availability of settlement data

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New Sources of Global Risk

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  1. New Sources of Global Risk WRMA June 26, 2006

  2. Weather data issues in developing countries • Availability of historical data • Cleaning historical data • Reliability/availability of settlement data • EarthSat/RMS have significant experience working with problematic data and can help provide market-ready data solutions Confidential

  3. Availability of historical data • Data acquisition for developing countries can be difficult • Requires assistance from other parties (Ethiopia - WFP) • Hard-copy historical data may need to be digitized • START EARLY – Solving data problems can take a significant amount of time Confidential

  4. Cleaning historical data • Historical weather data from developing countries will likely have many missing and/or clearly erroneous values • Cleaning data for a target station requires data from neighboring stations in similar climate zone • Create synthetic data for complete history of each station • Use synthetic data to identify erroneous values and replace missing values Confidential

  5. Ethiopian data cleaning specifics • Historical data for 162 stations used to create cleaned historical data for 42 stations • Limitations – Intended to clean 44 stations, but only able to clean 42 • 2 locations had nearest neighbor over 90 miles away • Replaced 37 consecutive months of historical data for one station Confidential

  6. Reliability/Availability of Settlement data • Reliable, timely settlement data can be a problem • ‘Certified’ settlement data from independent third party • CME • Ethiopia • Installation of weather stations for verification or official reporting • Malawi (World Bank) • Satellite monitoring of weather stations Confidential

  7. Confidential

  8. Contact information Jeff Hamlin Risk Management Solutions 510-505-2564 jeffh@rms.com Dave Whitehead MDA Federal (formerly EarthSat) 240-833-8233 david.whitehead@MDAFederal.com Confidential

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