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Overview of CMAP’s Advanced Travel Model Cadre

Overview of CMAP’s Advanced Travel Model Cadre . Kermit Wies, Deputy Executive Director for Research and Analysis AMPO Modeling Group, November 2010. Why Advance the CMAP Models?. Answer modern urban planning questions How do people arrange their activities?

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Overview of CMAP’s Advanced Travel Model Cadre

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  1. Overview ofCMAP’s Advanced Travel Model Cadre Kermit Wies, Deputy Executive Director for Research and Analysis AMPO Modeling Group, November 2010

  2. Why Advance the CMAP Models? • Answer modern urban planning questions • How do people arrange their activities? • What factors affect their choices? • How sensitive are they to change? • Keep our methods “state-of-the art” • Advanced models underway at most large MPOs • Take advantage of research partnerships • Show off

  3. Who is the “CMAP Modeling Cadre”? • The (growing) team of advanced modeling experts that contribute to CMAP’s advanced model system • Original 5 members authored the “Strategic Plan for Advanced Model Development” • Two consultant contracts for Freight and Pricing have been issued • Federal research collaborations underway

  4. CMAP’s Strategic Plan for Advanced Model Development • Introduction • Model management principles • Three Chapters • Policy Response • Data Development • Computing Environment • Two Appendices • Behavioral model integration • Demand/Supply model integration

  5. CMAP’s Model Management Principles • Ultimate Goal: Complete activity and travel microsimulation • Incremental coupling : agent-based demand and supply • Persistent attention to model integration (the science) Model developers:

  6. CMAP’s Model Management Principles • Ongoing activity and travel survey program • Ongoing performance data acquisition • Regional planning indicators • Active planning priorities (the product) the customer:

  7. Chapter 1: Policy Response • Two major sections: • Policy analysis requirements • Advanced models response capabilities

  8. Policy Analysis Requirements • Regional Comprehensive Plan (Go To 2040) • Livable communities • Regionalmobility • Humancapital • Efficientgovernance • Transportation Investments and Strategies • Air quality conformity • Major capital projects • Freight

  9. Any policy analysis requiring alternatives evaluation or forecasting should start here. Advanced models response capabilities Basic computational modules Module coupling and integration

  10. Chapter 2: Data Development • Three major sections: • Data required by advanced model features • Suggested data resources • Data development program

  11. Data required by advanced model features Coded and complete Ongoing survey program Data development needed for an advanced model should start here.

  12. Data Resource Requirements • Survey Data • Household and visitor diaries • External and airport intercepts • Business enterprises, commodity flows, intermodal • Spatial Data • Base and projections for: • population, housing, employment, school, parking, hotels, tourist • Network Data • Full streets for GIS interpretation • Coded for static and dynamic assignment : • Highway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, freight • Traffic and ridership data • counts, speed, travel time, queuesfor validating: • autos, trucks,transit, pedestrian, bicycles, external, intermodal

  13. Data Development Program • Internal ongoing survey work program • Freight business models • Census • Purchase commercial datasets • Data exchange with managers and operators

  14. Chapter 3: Computing Environment • Algorithms, calculations and procedures • Effective software and hardware solutions

  15. Algorithms, calculations and procedures • Calculating activity patterns • Computationally efficient • Individual decision making and interactions • Continuous variation in coefficients • Tour-based travel modeling • Bi-directional variation • Spatial chaining behavior • Challenges remain • Practical logsum computation • Continuous network level-of-serviceand equilibrium

  16. Effective Software and Hardware Solutions • Examples of: • Common modeling framework • General software architecture • CPU distribution and threading • Hardware configurations • Staffing and qualifications

  17. Two AppendiCes on Model Integration • “Intra” Activity-based model integration • Focuses on problem of modeling simultaneous or sequence-independent choices within different AB frameworks • “Inter” demand – supply model integration • Focuses on problem of exchange of valid level-of-service and activity-based information between demand and supply frameworks.

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