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Scenario Planning Process RSENR University of Vermont

Scenario Planning Process RSENR University of Vermont. “There is this totally absurd notion that knowledge proceeds in neat steps from known facts through logical deduction.” Edward de Bono. August 6, 2019 Susan Stickley Stratus, Inc. Susan Stickley Stratus, Inc.

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Scenario Planning Process RSENR University of Vermont

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  1. Scenario Planning Process RSENR University of Vermont “There is this totally absurd notion that knowledge proceeds in neat steps from known facts through logical deduction.” Edward de Bono August 6, 2019 Susan Stickley Stratus, Inc. Susan Stickley Stratus, Inc.

  2. The Elements of Strategy Who We Are Success Formula: Distinctive Competencies Where We Have to Work Scenarios: The Business Environment Who We Want to Be Vision: Strategic Intent Kees van der Heijden Stratus, Inc. 2017

  3. Defining Scenarios • “Scenarios are stories about the ways that the world might turn out tomorrow… • …that can help us recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our current environment” • Peter Schwartz Stratus, Inc. 2017

  4. Benefits of Scenario Planning Leads to robust decisions in the face of uncertainty; Allows for more flexibility in a changing world; Provides a means to imagine and plan for risks (risk mitigation); Encourages creativity and innovation; Allows for the creation of a common vision; Helps divergent views come into alignment. Stratus, Inc. 2017

  5. Scenarios are Not Forecasts Planning for A Range of Futures Planning for One Future Viewpoint: Multiple forces can affect future Viewpoint: Past largely determines future Source: Global Business Network

  6. Strategic Focus • Core Strategic Question that is the basis for scenario exploration. • Developed from strategic themes that emerge through data gathering. • Unique, Distinctive Capability • Strategic Challenges and Opportunities • Growth • Sustainability • … • Visions of Success • Relevancy filter for scenario content development Stratus, Inc. 2017

  7. Scenarios employ “Outside-In” Thinking • Vision • Strategies • Competencies High OrgInfluence Scenario thinking starts in the outer circle –the contextual environment that will shape your choices. • STEM Advancements • Innovation in Environmental Education • Tech Enablers • Higher Education • University of Vermont • Stakeholders (students, faculty, alumni…) RSENR & its Strategic Focus Some Org Influence THE TRANSACTONAL ENVIRONMENT • Social • Technological • Economic • Environment • Political Less or NoOrg Influence CONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENT Stratus, Inc. 2017

  8. Planning and Data Gathering (1+ month) • Map out Strategic Planning Process • Orient Ourselves: Data Gathering • - Interviews, Survey and Analysis • - Identify Key Strategic Themes and Critical Uncertainties • - Frame Strategic Focus (question) • Output: Strategic Context Summary Document, Strategic Focus • Critical Uncertainties • - Compiled and brought into the first workshop • Scenario and Strategy Development (2+ months) • Create the Scenarios - Scenario Development Workshop (Oct) • 1 day workshop over 2, ½ days • Write the Stories - Scenario Narrative Writing and Research • Output: Scenario Narrative Package • Explore the Scenarios - Strategic Implications Workshop (Dec) • 1 ½ day workshop over 2, consecutive days • Output: First Draft Strategic Plan Basic Work Flow Stratus, Inc. 2017

  9. Basic Work Flow • Finalize Strategic Plan (1+ months) • (internally driven, collaboratively finalized) • Flesh-Out Strategies - Session and additional task work • Create scope/focus, measures to track progress) • Finalize Strategic Plan (1st Quarter, 2020) • Output: Strategic Plan Document Update • Transition to Implementation • Build Adaptive Capability(optional) • Design Process and Implement within RSENR for Ongoing Strategic Vigilance • Monitoring Process of External Environment • Codified Process for Strategic Dialogue Sessions • Output: Process to maintain a living, adaptive Strategic Plan Stratus, Inc. 2017

  10. Roles and Responsibilities RSENR Leadership • Creator and Owner of Strategy Content • Preparatory work prior to workshops (up to 2 hours) • Participate in Strategic Planning Workshops • Lead Implementation of the Strategic Plan • Participate in Strategic Planning Workshops Core Team (3 to 5 individuals and Susan) • Overseer of the Scenario Planning Process • Participate in Strategic Planning Workshops • Focused on work to be done between sessions (primary writers/editors of scenarios and Strategic Plan content) • Participate in Strategic Planning Workshops • Glue of overall process • RECOMMENDATION: clarify individual roles and responsibilities Stratus, Inc. 2017

  11. What does success look like at the end of this process? Stratus, Inc. 2017

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