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  1. Mainstreaming Hazard Risk Assessment for Preparedness Inderjit Claire Vice President Sales, RMSI

  2. Probabilistic Framework for Risk Modeling - Earthquake Generate Stoch. Events Calculate Damage Financial Loss Apply Exposure Assess EarthquakeMotion Where? How large? How often? How strong are the ground motions? How do they attenuate? How are they amplified? Where is the exposure? What is its value? What types of buildings? How are the buildings damaged? What are the financial implications to local/provincial federal govt. stakeholders, insurers and reinsurers?

  3. Vulnerability • At what scale the vulnerability mapping needs to be done At what scale the vulnerability mapping needs to be done Vulnerability parameters

  4. Vulnerability has a Spatial Component • Which places are more vulnerable to a hazard? • Targeting geographical region, socio-economic class • Who are the vulnerable people? • Relative vulnerability among households and individuals • What should be done? • Link to intervention/ adaptation

  5. Social Vulnerability • Coping Ability • Resistance • Resilience • Social Environment • Age • Gender • Ethnicity • Household type • Economic Environment • Income and Assets • Insurance • Debts • Overlay environmental hazard maps with vulnerability maps to determine areas vulnerable to hazards • Add values, weights, factors for each variable in each layer to represent “Total Vulnerability”

  6. Case Study 1 - The India Example • Perils – Earthquakes, Tsunami, Floods, etc. • For effective risk mitigation, it is critical to undertake risk assessment studies to know what, and how much is at risk • Risk reduction can be achieved through multiple risk transfer strategies

  7. Earthquake Hazard Mapping 100 year Return period earthquake hazard map of Gujarat 100 year Return period earthquake hazard map of Maharashtra

  8. Flood Hazard Map - Mahanadi delta

  9. Block level Wind speed (Orissa 1999)

  10. Exposure Mapping

  11. Cyclone Average Annual Loss

  12. Case Study 2: Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives • Business need • Maldives was among the most severely affected countries hit by the Asian Tsunami on December 26, 2004 • UNDP initiated a study to analyze Maldives’ high level of vulnerability and to avoid the present scale of losses and damage in the future • Recovery and development planning to be based on Disaster Risk Management (DRM) strategy

  13. Hazard Assessment Historical data Tsunami Storm Earthquake SLR Hazard zones Vulnerability Analysis Exposure Physical Social Damages/Losses Affected Population Risk Profiling Weights Individual hazards and multi hazard Historical data Risk indices by island Physical Social Risk Profiling Individual hazards and multi hazard Case Study 2: Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives • Solution • Countrywide study: 200 inhabited islands out of a total of 1190 islands - completed in a challenging timeframe of 6 months • Hazards: Tsunami, Earthquake, Storms, Floods, and Climate Change • Vulnerability: Physical and Social • Exposures: Buildings, infrastructure and agriculture • GIS base map developed • GIS and CAT risk modeling integration • Hazard and risk maps developed • Assessments represented on a 5 point ordinal scale

  14. Case Study 2: Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives • Benefits • Comprehensive report and base maps generated • Government of Maldives used the report as a key input for planning developmental strategies to mitigate future disasters • First GIS base map of Maldives developed • 3-D view of bathymetry of Maldives (depth in meters)

  15. Case Study 3: Romania Earthquake Scenario • Earthquake estimation loss model to evaluate earthquake risks for better risk management • Data Model and Software Application for damage computation along the sub-crustal Vrancea zone • Compute direct and indirect potential damages following an earthquake

  16. Benefits • The software enables the users and decision makers to: • Assess damages • Prioritize and plan relief and rehabilitation requirements • Prepare and train emergency workers • Prepare action plans regarding essential and strategic facilities • Import new earthquake scenarios data and visualize their impact

  17. The Software A sample scenario

  18. Authentication The user logs in with his designated credentials

  19. Choice of Earthquake Scenario 13 precompiled events User selects the 475 yrs return earthquake

  20. Buildings Residential Commercial Industrial Essential Services - hospitals, police stations etc. Public High Risk

  21. Social Impact Casualties Death Injuries Subsistence (long & short term) Shelter Food Energy Water

  22. Lifelines Roads & Bridges Railways & Bridges Airports Ports Water Supply Systems Sewerage Systems Power Grids Communication Systems Gas & Fuel Pipelines

  23. High Risk Facilities Chemical Plants Nuclear Plants Dams Hydrotechnical Works

  24. Secondary Hazard Fire Explosion

  25. Region Selection Select single or multiple counties

  26. Choice of Maps & Reports Map Output Report Output

  27. Footprint Of An Earthquake Footprint of the ground motion of the earthquake in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) This study covers 17 counties out of the 32 counties of Romania Additional data for the other counties can be added by the user in the future

  28. Residential Buildings Collapsed In An Earthquake of Magnitude 7.4

  29. Railway Routes Affected by an Earthquake Red – Blocked Yellow – Affected Green - Not affected

  30. Intervention Priority For Commercial Buildings Priority of rescue and rehabilitation work

  31. Areas Affected By Earthquake County view

  32. Areas Affected By Earthquake Locality View

  33. Impact on Residential Buildings and Dwellings

  34. Number of Buildings Collapsed Per Locality

  35. For Commercial Buildings EarthquakeScenario County name Locality name Type of construction Number of stories Total number of buildings Number of buildings affected Number of buildings collapsed

  36. For Chemical Facilities Earthquake scenario considered County name Location name Chemical plant name Name of chemical Type of chemical Whether the facility is affected Probability of accident

  37. Essential Facilities Buildings

  38. Human Casualty Figures

  39. Subsistence Requirements

  40. Water Supply Systems Damage

  41. Effective Management of Hazard Risks • Integrate Disaster Risk Management into the national, regional, and local economic development process • Undertake detailed risk and vulnerability assessment studies to gather accurate information for ex-ante pre hazard risk management • What is the country’s hazard exposure • What is the nature of hazards and their disruptive characteristics • Where is the risk concentrated • What can be the economic and social losses • Who are the people at risk – individuals and groups • What economic activities are vulnerable

  42. The paradigm shift • Fate Choice • Reactive Proactive • Recovery Mitigation • Wait and watch Anticipate and prevent • Ex-post Ex-ante • Crisis management Risk management • Ad-hoc efforts Comprehensive approach • Development at risk Sustainable development Benefits of Risk and Vulnerability Assessments • With in-depth understanding of the potential economic losses, countries would be • Better placed to review the physical, human, and financial exposures • Determine the level of risk that can be accepted and the level of risk that should be mitigated

  43. info@rmsi.com www.rmsi.com