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MRPO Technical Approach. “Nearer” Term Overview For: Emissions Modeling Meteorological Modeling Photochemical Modeling & Domain Model Performance Evaluation Regulatory Support
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MRPO Technical Approach “Nearer” Term Overview For: • Emissions Modeling • Meteorological Modeling • Photochemical Modeling & Domain • Model Performance Evaluation • Regulatory Support These approaches are dynamic and will change as emissions, met, chemistry, and deposition processes evolve and hopefully improve
Currently 1999 NEI v2 MOBILE6 BEIS3/BIOME3* CMU Ammonia 1995 Canadian anthropogenic Moving Toward 2002 Emissions submitted from the States MOBILE6** BEIS3/BIOME3* CMU Ammonia Newer Canadian Inventory Emissions *Day Specific **Day Specific for Summer Months
Current Setup Explicit Moisture: Simple ice PBL: Pleim-Xiu Multi-Layer Soil Model: Pleim-Xiu Radiation: RRTM Cumulus: Kain-Fritsch 4-D Data Assimilation: Analysis nudging on; only above PBL Future Obtain annual 2002 simulation using latest version of MM5 and with water phase mixing ratios explicitly output Obtain EPA annual 2001 simulation MM5
Other Model Inputs • Initial and Boundary conditions: • Currently: profile (v6) released with CMAQ • Switching to GEOS-CHEM output when available • Simulations spin up 2 weeks to minimize impact • Landuse (11 categories): • USGS landuse • Ozone Column: • Daily TOMS ozone column data • Albedo: • Monthly albedo based on 10 years of TOMS reflectivity data • Photolysis Rates: • TUV4.0 processor using the discrete ordinate algorithm; • daily rates files based on daily O3 column and monthly albedo
CAMx4 • CB4 gas-phase chemistry • Semi-volatile secondary organic aerosol module • ISORROPIA thermodynamics module • PPM horizontal transport, implicit vertical transport • RADM based aqueous phase chemistry (same as CMAQ) • Sub-grid plume treatment: TBD • Platform • RedHat Linux PCs • Portland Group Fortran Compiler *Plan to apply CMAQ and REMSAD to specific episodes as a QA step
MM5 Domain (light yellow) • 165 X, 129 Y, 35 Z • 36 km cells • CAMx Domain (dark yellow) • 97 X, 90 Y, 14 Z • 36 km cells • Lambert projection • Center (-97,40) • True latitudes (33,45)
Model Performance • IMPROVE • 24 hr samples every 3 days • PM2.5 Speciation • Super Sites & Special Studies • Hourly gases and meteorology • Hourly/daily PM2.5 Speciation • EPA Speciation • 24 hr samples every 3 days • PM2.5 Speciation • March Midwest • daily 24 hr samples • PM2.5 Speciation • NH3, HNO3, HNO2, SO2 • AIRS -- not shown • Hourly criteria pollutants • TDL U.S. Airways – not shown • Hourly meteorological data
Source Apportionment • Focusing on source apportionment runs to support strategy development • De-emphasizing VOC, NOX, SO2, NH3 “generalized” emissions adjustments 1. Biogenics 2. Other Area 3. Point 4. Nonroad 5. Onroad 6. Ammonia
Summary • Transition this year from 1999 to 2002 based anthropogenic emissions • Continue to use our 2002 MM5 36km simulation; may seek an updated 2002 MM5 36km run from another RPO • Continual model performance for 2002 and other select episodes as emissions and meteorology change • Iterative modeling process: continually updating emissions, met, and photochemical modeling until we essentially “run out of time” for SIP • Strategy formulation process will be supported with source apportionment modeling rather than zero out runs or across the board emissions adjustments
