The Road Ahead: Strategic Trends and Emerging Technologies

1. The Road Ahead:Strategic Trends and Emerging Technologies David Cearley VP & Gartner Fellow

2. "The future isalready here, it's just not evenly distributed." — William Gibson Photo: Midnightzulu

3. Top 10 Strategic Emerging Trends Technology/Trend Mainstream Adoption • Cloud Computing .......................... Now - 2020 • Social Software ............................. Now - 2020 • Next Generation Analytics ............. 2 – 10 years • Mobile & Real World Web ............. Now - 2020 • Context Aware Computing ............ 5-10 (pieces now) • Augmented Reality ........................ 2-5 & >10 • Future User Interfaces .................. 2 – 10 years • 3d Printing ..................................... 5-10 years • Mobile Robots ............................... > 10 years • Fabric Computing .......................... 5 – 10+ years

4. Cloud Computing - Everything is a Service 5 Business Services A Consuming Cloud Services 4 Information B Implementing Cloud Computing Environments 3 Applications (SaaS) 5 Broad Categories of Services 3 Focal Points for Cloud Projects C 2 App. Infra. (PaaS) Developing Cloud-Based Applications and Solutions 1 System Infra. (IaaS) Gartner defines cloud computing as "a style of computing wherescalable and elastic IT-related capabilities are provided'as a service' to customers* using Internet technologies." * Private cloud computing exists when cloud services are delivered to a limited set of customers In public cloud computing services are delivered to an open and undifferentiated set of customers

5. Cloud-Computing Implementation Models VirtualPrivate Cloud Open Public Closed Private Company A Company A Company B Company A Company A Provider X User Z Company A Company B CustomPrivate Cloud Managed Private Cloud PublicCloud CommunityPrivate Cloud

6. Reference Model for Cloud Service Brokerage Cloud Brokerage Business Services Delivery Services Enrichment Deliver Supplier Mgmt. … BPU BPO PS MS Billing … Analytics Cloud Brokerage Functions (CBF) Broker Customization Enhancement Governance Aggregation Insurance Integration Arbitrage Context Cloud Brokerage Enabling Technology (CBET) Community Mgmt. Governance Management Integration Development • Policy/Rules • Reg./Rep. • Reporting • Monitoring • SLA • Compliance • Connectors • Adapters • Messaging • Routing • Mediation • Flow • Caching • Bandwidth Mgmt. • Autoscaling • Load Mgmt. • Offloading • Compliance • Platform • Tools • APIs • Expertise Enable • Provisioning • Operations • Life Cycle • Catalog Who Does CSB? • Application Integration Providers • Ecosystem or Marketplace owners • B2B cloud providers • SaaS system integrators • Cloud API managers • Backup and recovery providers • And more…

7. Social Software: The Next Stages of the Journey • Internal collaboration • Consumer-led innovation and adoption continues • Social Communication & Collaboration • Crowdsourcing and collective Intelligence • Knowledge management reborn • Tacit knowledge captured as a side-effect of communication • Social Analysis Create Collaborate Capture Use Organize Access

8. What Happened? Why Did it Happen? What Will Happen? Next Generation Analytics: Collaborative, Predictive, Real-Time & Embedded In-line/embeddedanalytics Enabling Trends Social/BI Convergence BI Search Data Mashups In-Memory Analysis Columnar database Cloud Analytic Services Combining & Collaborating Traditionaloffline analytics Explanatory Simple Consumption Predictive Through 2012, 20% of organizations will have the skills and maturity necessary to fully exploit next generation analytics

9. Predictive Analytics: New Sources, New Insights Information Products and Services Relevance Topic Source Quality Location Quality Owner Status • Passive data capture: sensors, cameras • New data sources of massive scale • Automated discovery of new attributes • New sources for task automation • Perfect recall, privacy andtransparency People Places Quality Navigation Who's there What's around Mood Location Availability Preferences

10. The Future is Mobile • How Does It Affect You? • Mobile is becoming a major design point for more applications • Tablet use will explode • Mobile apps are a critical enabler of B2C interactions • Context Aware Computing enters your planning through location based services • Application delivery, management and support complexity increases • The rise of the “App Store” Harbinger: Many tens of thousandsof new and more powerful applications are coming online. This will accelerate.

11. The Emergence of the “Apptrepreneure” Etymology: Application Developer Entrepreneur Definition: One who authors applications and then delivers them through virtual, context-specific application stores and marketplaces rather than traditional software distribution channels. Apptrepreneure Distribution Channels Mobile Device Browser Social Network Application Platform

12. This is Already Happening Facebook Linked-In Web/Cloud Platforms iPhone and iPad

13. Apptrepreneureship –The Government/Enterprise Perspective Gov/Enterprise has three interests – Acquiring software themselves in a manner similar to consumers Enabling internal programmers and Citizen Developers to build and deliver proprietary solutions using the tools of the Apptrepreneur. Engaging contituents in the marketplaces where Apptrepreneurs play – putting them in competition with the Apptrepreneur; Expose business data and processes, and let the community take over Leverage the ecosystem: Launch a WOA API Not as simple as “build it and they will come”

14. Real World Web: Unifying the Digital and Physical Worlds Location identification and geo-tagging Object identification: RFID, QR bar code, image recognition Sensor networks: temperature, humidity, acceleration, light Consumer services Environmental monitoring Supply chain improvements Collective sensing Source: Violet Source: Sensor Wireless Source: Sensor Wireless

15. The Emerging Architecture of Context-Aware Computing Pre-context Simple systems and walled gardens Open systems and federations Presence,PIM ... +Location,Identity,Simple behavior and habits,Social networksSimple proactive alerts ... +Sensors, bio sensorsAdjacent devices and people,Complex anticipatory behavior,Complex federated services,Complex communities 2009 2010-2012 2015-2020

16. Information in Context: Augmented Reality Source: MIT Media Lab Source: Nokia • Context-based information at point of decision/action • Mobile devices with location information at leading edge of augmented reality • Emerging wearable and "glanceable" interfaces • Leveraging "learnable moments": Accenture Personal Performance Coach, views of future self • Long term human augmentation trend

17. The Z Factor:Computing in Three Dimensions Source: Microsoft Source: Sony Source: NextEngine Source: MIT Input 3D scanners3D camerasGesture controlDigital clay Processing 3D design toolsVirtual worlds Output 3D displays3D printersMobile AR Future Programmable matter

18. 2015-2020: The Fluid User Experience • Ensemble interactions involving many devices • Interactions that shift to the most appropriate device • Contextual interactions • New sensors and control mechanisms, including emotion, gesture ... • Emotionally aware interactions • "Wow factor" The Environment Is The Computer

19. 2011-2015: The User Experience Platform • Next step for portal and mashup markets • Tools to build and validate usability are inherent. • User Experience Plaform (UXP) is not a market — yet. • New players from complementary markets • Roll-your-own UXP • UX Design is more important than UXP User Experience Platform Collab. Context Content Analytics UXP Mobile Portal Search Mashup E-Commerce BIDash-boards RIA Social UX Mgmt. SOA/BPM/Web/Cloud Platform

20. Industrial prototyping and 3-D faxing — product design, production prototyping, architectural models, medical modeling 3-D printing bureaus, home printing of replacement parts Scanning and replication Challenge — range and combination of materials DARPA programmable matter program 3-D Printing: From $200K to $20K Source: NextEngine Source: Programmable Matter Research in Daniela Rus's Laboratory at CSAIL MIT Source: Z Corporation

21. Traditional applications: telepresence in hostile environments, autonomous vehicles, cleaning, delivery, toys, companions, humanoids Emerging applications in mobile infrastructure: telepresence, RFID, warehousing R&D in carrying, lifting and rescue: military, emergency response, home healthcare Human augmentation: exoskeletons, walking aids Mobile Robots Drive Mobile Infrastructure Source: In-Touch Health Source: Kiva Systems Source: Honda News Release

22. Computing FabricsFrom Converged to Decomposed Infrastructure A C Rack 1 B Rack 2 I/O Processor Memory

23. "When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened." — John M. Richardson, Jr.

24. Emerging Trends Radar Screen David Cearley VP & Gartner Fellow