Two Views of Space Tourism – A New Perspective

1. Two Views of Space Tourism – A New Perspective Presentation to the RLV Working Group Michael S. Kelly

2. Burt Rutan’s Seminal Observations • “The markets for a future Personal Spaceflight industry (access to flight above the atmosphere by the public) will likely take on two basic forms: • “The first is a scenario in which commercial companies develop lower-cost versions of the classic government booster and spacecraft concepts and then conduct commercial flights that are funded by passenger ticket sales. This first scenario's approach will result in a very limited market whose size will depend somewhat on the ticket prices.  • “The second is a scenario in which the players do not find the dangers of space flight acceptable and recognize that extensive improvements in safety are more important than extensive improvements in affordability. . . It is likely that systems that come from this approach will be more like airplanes and will operate more like airplanes than the historic systems used for government manned spaceflight.”

3. The “Adventure” Approach Intended to Jump Start the Industry Will it Really Do So? Is the (High?) Risk “Adventure” Market Large Enough, at a Sufficient Price Point, to Get Things Started? Is (High?) Risk Adventure the Way the Industry Wishes to Portray Itself? Perpetuates the “Right Stuff” Image of Space Flight, Albeit Opening it to the General Public The “Airline” Approach Intended to Start the Industry as “Safety Mature” From the Outset Is That Possible? Is the Investment Base Sufficient to Support the Larger Up-Front Cost of Providing Safety Maturity Is Airline-like Safety Possible for Space Flight? Is it Necessary? Does the Public Require This Level of Safety, or are People Willing to Take Calculated Risk (as They do Every Single Day. . .)? Comparisons and Issues Raised