STARMAP YEAR 4

1. STARMAPYEAR 4 N. Scott Urquhart STARMAP Director Department of Statistics Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877

2. This research is funded by U.S.EPA – Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Program Cooperative Agreement # CR - 829095 STARMAP FUNDINGSpace-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis Program The work reported here today and tomorrow was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. These presentations have not been formally reviewed by EPA.  The views expressed here are solely those of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they represent. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentations.

3. TODAY’S COMMENTS ABOUT STARMAP • Background Comments • Research • Outputs • Publications/presentations • Training – future generations of environmental statisticians • Extension/Outreach/Cooperation • Meetings • Learning Materials • Recruiting • Plans for the year ahead • Research • Meetings • Data

4. PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:STARMAP RESEARCH - A FOCUS • EPA released the report,Response of Surface Water Chemistry to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (EPA/620/R-02/004) • Was submitted to Congress in January, 2003 • Statistical techniques available for it were severely limited in several dimensions • Good illustration of tools we need to develop • Used as presentation illustration • STARMAP investigators are using • The context for model assumptions • Data on which this report was based

5. PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 1 • Combining/analyzing environmental data • Bayesian Methods • Extension of contingency table methods for aquatic data • Devin Johnson and Jennifer Hoeting; papers submitted and in progress • Habitat selection models to account for seasonal persistence in radio telemetry data. • Megan Dailey and Alix Gitelman: Paper to appear in EES; several talks; Dailey won runner-up for best student presentation at WNAR • Book on Computational Statistics by Givens and Hoeting; short courses • Spatial statistics • Selection and estimation for spatial models (see talk by Hoeting) • Andrew Merton, PhD student: theoretical and applied aspects of model selection for spatial models (Hoeting and Davis, advisors) • Devin Johnson, reversible jump MCMC for spatial model selection (papers & talks) • Kathi Georgitis, PhD student: estimation for spatial models, (working with Gitelman and Hoeting) • Megan Dailey (PhD student) and Julia Smith (MS student): models and methods for EPA EMAP data from WA and OR. (Hoeting, advisor) • Designing to estimate semivariograms – Kerry Ritter & Molly Leecaster • How much spatial correlation in aquatic responses? – See poster by Josh French

6. PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR: STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 2 • Local Estimation/Survey Methods • Jointly funded by STARMAP and DAMARS • Methods to improve survey summaries using auxiliary information • From design-based to model-based • Major collaboration with Jean Opsomer, Iowa State U • Giovanna Ranalli = post doc, completed, back in Italy, but here • Progress on procedures for smoothing data from estuaries • Cooperative with AED and New Hampshire DES • Two cooperating fellows from Taiwan • Nan-Jung Hsu and Hsin-Cheng Huang • Jay Breidt will expand on this during his talk • Mark Delorey and Bill Coar will give talks on their parts.

7. PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR: STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 3 • Indicator Development • GIS work & support is funded here • GIS tools relevant to statistical analysis of aquatic systems have been tested, used, and are web-available: FLoWS • SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS in GRTS-type sampling • Manuscript submitted; ESRI is interested in including this in version 9.3 • Substantial cooperation with the Oregon Plan and Western Ecology Division • Erin Peterson, completed her PhD and left for a post-doctoral position in aquatic modeling in Queensland, Australia • Andrew Merton will give a closely related talk • Cooperation: Landscape Ecology & Stat & Maryland DNR • Dave Theobald (PI) commented further yesterday & here

8. PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR: STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 4 • Extension/Outreach • Urquhart (PI) • I’ll return to this as next to the last major topic • Only opportunity to talk about outreach here

9. TRAINING - RESULTS • Governing RAF states • “… cadre of graduates would be developed who would have the expertise and experience in survey design and analysis needed to fill a gap in the expertise required to successfully monitor the condition of the Nation’s aquatic resources.” • Students & early career professionals • Students • Completed: 3 PhD + 6 Masters • Active: 6 PhD + 2 MS • Early-career professionals - 7

10. OUTPUTS • Relevant statistical research in the form of • Publications – for statisticians & others • Worked examples in the “Case studies” part of the learning materials • Reversed Randomized Quadrant-Recursive Raster (RRQRR) • Slight variant of GRTS implemented in ARCGIS • FLoWS software – see poster • Very usable and relevant set of tools • Prediction of probability of perennialness of stream traces • Hope to be able to add to sampling procedure by end of Program

11. OUTPUTS in YEAR 4 • PUBLICATIONS • 20 professional publications – in print or accepted • Including a book • 20 in various stages of submission and review • 15+ manuscripts in various stages of development • Presentations • 51 completed • 2 more by end of year 4 (Sept 30, 2005) • To a variety of audiences, domestic and international • 27 venues • Statistically oriented - 14 • Other kinds of audiences - 13

12. OUTPUTS in YEAR 4continued • STUDENT PROGRESS • PhDs • One in geoscience completed; one completed in stat at ISU • Six others • Three Stat in nearing completion (CSU) • Two in mid-program (1@CSU), & (1@OSU) • One Stat starting (CSU) • Masters • One completed this year • @ CSU • Two more in progress

13. MEETINGS • Graybill Conference (2004) – success • Proceedings will be published in two issues of Environmental and Ecological Statistics • Friendly outlet for young environmental statisticians • Professional meetings of statisticians: • Western North America Region – Biometric Society & Institute of Mathematical Statistics - Fairbanks • Joint Statistical Meetings - Minneapolis • STARMAP personnel organized sessions and gave presentations at both of these and other meetings • Investigators are already planning for next year’s involvement

14. MEETINGS - OUTREACH • User communities • National Park Service – Theobald and others; multiple times • ESRI (ArcGIS firm) Theobald • EPA: Eastern Ecology Division – Ranalli • EPA: Western Ecology Division – Stevens, Theobald and Urquhart • EPA – Ecology Review – Urquhart • International – Stevens • Australia • Pacific Basin Salmon • Oregon Project – Stevens & Theobald • Maryland Stream Symposium – Urquhart • Making statisticians aware of unique features of aquatic systems • Many contexts and all investigators – international to local

15. RECRUITING • Post-doctoral fellows • Actively recruiting one right now • Director will continue to be active in recruiting • Students for the CSU statistics graduate program • In high school advanced placement statistics • We need undergraduate majors in relevant areas to recruit for future graduate students • Urquhart visited AP classes in high schools last year

16. LEARNING MATERIALS • Jointly funded by STARMAP & DAMARS • Browser based (web access NOT needed) • To be delivered via CD ROM • Substantial opportunities for individualization • Perspective • Senior administrator to • Implementer to • Researcher • Landscape setting • We have moved to implementation as pdf files linked to video and sound

17. CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALSPROGRESS • Why Monitor? - Draft completed and tested • Where to Monitor? Draft completed and tested • What to monitor = Indicators • Nothing started on this yet • How to Monitor? (= Field Operations) • Major progress – Stacey Hancock gave a talk on this yesterday – She has combined: • EPA Field Operations Manuals • Training videotaped in May 2004 • And PowerPoint presentations from training • Another student (MS) is working on a different level of this

18. CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALSPROGRESS(continued) • … • How to summarize. • Student has done some started on this • Case studies • Several current efforts will be turned into these • Distribution of completed materials • Preliminary discussions with the Council of State Governments have been very encouraging.

19. PLANS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD • Project 1 - continue present work • Expand work on selection of spatial models • Modeling aquatic data from EMAP-type OR & WA • Explore wetlands data relative to plot size • Project 2 – continue developments • Emphasize small area (local) estimation • Expand work on uncertainty related to spatial LASSO • Project 3 - complete GRTS sampling in GIS • Expand information and scope of FLoWS • Major cooperation with DAMARS on Oregon Plan analyses • Outreach – continue development of cooperation • Case studies – nsu’s time from meetings & editorial things • Continue implementation & testing • At any suitable venue

20. ACCUMULATING AQUATIC SPATIAL DATA • How much spatial correlation really is present in aquatic responses, after accounting for habitat features? • Urquhart has been seeking data sets to look at this: • Streams in Virginia – too few points to see much pattern • Ohio River – about 400 points – Josh French used for MS report • Estuaries – one in northeast = Great Bay, NH - Ranalli • Near coastal – San Diego Project – Ritter & Urquhart • Wetlands – Cooperative with Minnesota DNR – nsu • See Josh French’s poster related to this • Includes bibliography • New data: San Diego near-shore; Maryland • Need time to finish work on these; includes map accuracy