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Seasonal Outlook & NWS Resources. Latah LEPC January 14, 2013 Andy Brown. El Ni ño vs La N i ña. ‘Neutral’ Conditions are around average SSTs. Ni ño Indices: Historical Evolution. Ni ño Indices: Recent Evolution. Transition from La Nina to El Nino early last summer.

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Seasonal outlook nws resources

Seasonal Outlook&NWS Resources

Latah LEPC

January 14, 2013

Andy Brown


El ni o vs la n i a
El Niño vs La Niña

‘Neutral’ Conditions are around average SSTs


Ni o indices historical evolution
Niño Indices: Historical Evolution


Ni o indices recent evolution
Niño Indices: Recent Evolution

  • Transition from La Nina to El Nino early last summer

  • Weak El Nino to Neutral conditions persisting the last several months


Tropical pacific status
Tropical Pacific Status

  • Neutral conditions are present across the eastern equatorial Pacific

  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) about 0.4 degree above average

  • SSTs are showing a moderating or slowing trend right now



Bottom line
Bottom Line…

El Nino watch has been…

  • Instead, Neutral to very weak El Nino conditions expected



Seasonal snowfall
Seasonal Snowfall

  • 35.2” as of February 12

  • Average approximately another 10” mid February through April

  • 3 out of the last 4 years measured at least 12” in March and April


Full season temperature outlooks
Full Season Temperature Outlooks

Mar/Apr/May

Feb/Mar/Apr


Full season precipitation outlooks
Full Season Precipitation Outlooks

Mar/Apr/May

Feb/Mar/Apr


8 14 day outlook feb 21 27
8-14 Day Outlook (Feb 21-27)

Precipitation

Temperature


NWS Resources:

Insuring Decision MakersKnow

How to Get the Information They Need


NWS Spokane Webpage:

Point and Click Forecast Map


Hazardous

Weather

Outlook

A more general description of potential weather hazards

(Especially Days 2-7)


Winter Weather Advisory

Detailed Highlight

What

When

Where

Impacts


Short Term Forecast (NOW Cast)

  • Used to convey rapidly evolving hazards

    • Heavy snow bands

    • Dense fog

    • Thunderstorms


Resources:

Detailed Hazards

Interactive map highlighting exactly where the hazards/impacts are expected

weather.gov/spokane


Weather Story

Event driven

Highlight the expected impacts

All hazards (severe weather, flooding, pattern changes, etc)


Stay in touch

All NWS Forecast Offices have Facebook, Twitter, and now Youtube!

Follow, Like, and Subscribe for the latest information.

Stay in Touch!

National Weather Service Spokane

@NWSSpokane

NWS Spokane


Survey Youtube!

We Need YOUR Help!

  • NWS Wants Your Comments on a Proposed Alternative to Simplify Winter Hazard Headlines

  • nws.weather.gov/haz_simp/

“THE NWS HAS ISSUED A __________ WATCH”

Will be converted to…

“THE NWS FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ______ “


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