Predicting Individual Preparedness & Assistance: Sandy and Irene Experiences

1. Predicting Individual Preparedness & Assistance: Sandy and Irene Experiences Michael Greenberg June 2013

2. Four Research Questions • 1. What proportion of the NJ’s population supports risk-reducing land use and building policies in flood prone areas? And why? • 2. What impact has Superstorm Sandy had on public perception of global climate change? And why? • 3. How were transit, energy delivery, and other infrastructure impacted by the storm? What are public perceptions of those impacts? And why? • 4. Can we predict assistance and how is it associated with preparedness, situation, needs and constraints?

3. Survey • 1750 samples • 65% landline, 35% cell phone • February 13-March 27, 2013 • Sample divided into two groups with 875 receiving land use/building management questions and global climate change questions and the other 875 receiving the infrastructure and preparedness-outcome questions. • All received key predictor questions about global climate change, trust, cost, and demographics

4. Question • Can we predict assistance and how is it associated with preparedness, situation, needs and constraints?

5. TABLE 1—Proportion of Respondents Who Provided Assistance During Irene or Sandy

6. Predicting Assistance (59%) • Preparedness by far strongest predictor (OR=1.37) • Preparedness 0 -– Assistance 23% • 1 -- 42% • 2 -- 56% • 3-6 -- 70% (asymptotic) • Situational variables: • Age 35-64 (OR=1.57) • Persons in home with a pre-existing condition (OR=1.46) • Rates personal health as not excellent (OR=0.64) • Experienced data of family, friend during Sandy (OR=2.86)

7. Preparedness, Assistance & Group Membership • Almost 60% of those who provided assistance were also part of a group that provided assistance. • Persons who belonged to an organized religious group or another group such as Red Cross, Salvation Army were the most prepared and provided assistance for longer period of time. • Those who belonged to secular community groups provided a similar number of types of aid but for a shorter period of time.

8. Implications & Next Steps • How efficacious is the assistance provided by individuals during and after an event? • How can it be made more effective, that is, responsive to needs of neighbors, relatives and friends and consistent with needs of public health and emergency response community? • What kinds of risk communication and training is needed toward this end? • Seniors are at much higher risk. Yet, how many seniors provide assistance during these events?

9. Levels of Preparedness • 6 types measured: • Have fire extinguisher (77%) • Have a family communication plan (47%) • Have an extended stay at home plan (42%) • Have a emergency supply kit (45%) • Have a place to meet (35%) • Have a generator (29%) • Average is 2.7 • 25% have 0 or 1 • 33% have 4-6

10. Predicting Preparedness • Experiences: • Impacted by Irene • Death or injury to family member or friend • Flashbulb memories of Katrina, Irene, Sandy • Values and Preferences: • 2+ children in the home • Multiple automobiles • Excellent self-rated health & age 35-64 • People rely on gov’t to do things that they should do for themselves and distrust gov’t, including local.