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John Curtin Institute of Public Policy. Housing Australians : The Challenges Ahead. Shane Goodwin Managing Director Housing Industry Association 1 July 2010. Changing Demographic Profile.

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housing australians the challenges ahead

John Curtin Institute of Public Policy

Housing Australians :The Challenges Ahead

Shane Goodwin

Managing Director

Housing Industry Association

1 July 2010

changing demographic profile
Changing Demographic Profile

“In respect to ageing, between now and 2050, people aged 65 to 84 years will more than double and the number of people aged 85 and over will more than quadruple. By 2050, there will be only 2.7 people of working age for every person aged 65 and over. Today there is five.”

Wayne Swan, Treasurer

australian population projections
Australian Population Projections

Low and Base case

2050

Percentage of total population

2010

2050 - Low

2050 - Base

0-14

19.1

15.1

17.2

15-64

67.4

58.9

60.2

65-84

11.7

20.0

17.6

85 and over

1.8

6.0

5.1

Low = popn. growth of 0.8% p.a.

Base = popn. growth of 1.2% p.a.

Source: Treasury projections

slide6

Acknowledgement : Bernard Salt - Address to HIA National Policy Congress, Gold Coast, May 2010

dwelling requirements
Dwelling Requirements

New Dwelling Requirements to 2020

Source: HIA

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

Number

100,000

50,000

0

Current projections

Small Australia

Big Australia

Current trend

Average annual starts required

Housing Starts based on current trend

dwelling requirements1
Dwelling Requirements

Total Dwelling Requirements to 2020

Source: ABS,

HIA

2,750,000

2,419,811

2,500,000

Current Trend

2,250,000

2,059,811

1,920,000

1,819,811

2,000,000

1,750,000

1,500,000

1,250,000

Number

1,000,000

750,000

500,000

250,000

0

Current projections

Small Australia

Big Australia

Current trend

Total new dwellings required

Current Capacity

Potential Capacity

obstacles to boosting supply
Obstacles to boosting supply

Systemic obstacles to boosting Australia’s supply of

housing stock:

Lack of readily available land

Planning delays

Infrastructure tax and charges

Finance constraints

capping of levies in nsw
Capping of Levies in NSW

Example of Reduction in Section 94 Charges

Pre December 2008

December 2008 to June 2010

After 7 June 2010

Local Council (s94)

$58,970

$58,970

$20,000

State Infrastructure

Up to $33,000

$11,000

$11,000

Water Charges

$18,000

$0

$0

Total

$109,970

$69,970

$31,000

Notes:

1. No exemptions existed prior to December 2008

2. The state Infrastructure Charge (SIC) of $33,000 was reduced to $11,000 in the December 2008 announcement. (HIA is currently

lobbying to retain this cap beyond July 2011.)

3. The water charge was also removed in the December 2008 announcement

4. The majority of councils in the SW growth area were granted an exemption to the December 2008 ($20,000) cap

infrastructure backlogs
Infrastructure Backlogs

Significant infrastructure investment backlogs (2005):

Electricity has an under-investment of $1.15 billion

Gas has an under-investment of $2.6 billion

Road has an under-investment of $10 billion

Rail has an under-investment of $8.06 billion

Water has a potential under-investment of $3 billion

The total estimated under-investment is $24.81 billion

Source : 2005 Australian Infrastructure, Report Card, Institution of Engineers Australia

trade non trade commencements
Trade & Non-Trade Commencements

Seasonally adjusted, 1999-2009 (‘000)

commonwealth skilled occupation list
Commonwealth Skilled Occupation List

Skills Shortages 1 July 2010

Air-conditioning mechanic

Architect

Bricklayer

Carpenter

Carpenter & Joiner

Construction project manager

Drainer

Electrician

Fibrous plasterer

Gasfitter

Geotechnical engineer

Glazier

Joiner

Painter

Plumber

Project builder

Quantity surveyor

Roof plumber

Solid plasterer

Stonemason

Structural engineer

Wall & floor tiler