LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS Arun K Sinha Markandey Rai & Ashbindu Singh IAOS Conference 2010, Santiago, Chile, Oct. 20-22, 2010
LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE… • There are eight United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). • Its seventh goal aims to ensure environmental sustainability, which is of interest for the present investigation. • It consists of four targets that include target 7.A, 7.B, 7.C, and 7.D . 2
LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON DIOXIDE… • Target 7.Aconsists of ten indicators that include proportion of land area covered by forest and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. • The address for the MDGs Indicators is http://mdgs.un.org or http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Data.aspx . 3
LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON … • The site presents the official data, definitions, methodologies and sources for the 48 indicators for measuring progress made towards the Millennium Development Goals. • Analyses point out to the excessive carbon dioxide emissions as one of the main factors of climate change across the world. 4
LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON … • With this view a trend analysis of the emission is conducted. • There are two main sources for the data of the carbon dioxide emission. 5
LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON … • The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). • For the present investigation the data set provided by the CDIAC is used because it gives data sets for a larger number of countries / areas as compared with the UNFCCC. 6
LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON … • The used data set was last updated on 23 June 2010. • The unit of emission value is in thousand metric tons of CO2. • Only 210 out of 216 countries / areas have values of emissions for 1998-2007. 7
LEVELS AND TRENDS OF CARBON … • But 209 places are considered after excluding “Niue” because its value is “4” for each of the ten years under investigation. 8
TREND ANALYSISOF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION … • For understanding the trends of the carbon dioxide emissions a linear trend equation based on the last ten years data is obtained for each country / area. • The investigation is based on the data of 1998 to 2007.
TREND ANALYSISOF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION … • The assumption of linear trend is justified because of smaller number of observations. • This assumption appears to be more reasonable for understanding the annual growth rate.
TREND ANALYSISOF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION … • Out of the two hundred nine thirty four countries / areas (16.3%) reveal negative annual growth rates (showing decreasing emission). • The linear trend equations disclose that China has the highest annual growth rate (394016) while Germany has its lowest value (-7488).
TREND ANALYSISOF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION … • This shows that the emission over the years has decreased in Germany. • The descriptive statistics of the two countries are obtained.
Figure 1. A pie chart depicting the sign of the annual growth rates of the carbon dioxide emissions
Figure2. Boxplots of carbon dioxide in China and Germany during 1998-2007
References • Levin, Richard I. and Rubin, David S. (2004). Statistics for Management. Seventh Edition. Pearson Education, (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Indian Branch, Delhi 110092, India. • Levine, D. M., Stephan, D., Krehbiel T. C. and Berenson, M. L (2006). Statistics for Mangers, Fourth Edition. Prentice- Hall of India Private Limited, New Delhi-110 001,India
Table1. Countries / areas with linear trend equations and annual growth rates during 1998-2007