1 / 67

Transitioning from the Age of Fossil Fuels

Transitioning from the Age of Fossil Fuels. Feb 27, 2007 Bill Blackwell Harvard (MA) Local: Solutions for a Sustainable Community www.harvardlocal.org. Acknowledgment of ideas, data and slides:. Richard Heinberg, New College, respected author on Peak Oil

afra
Download Presentation

Transitioning from the Age of Fossil Fuels

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Transitioning from the Age of Fossil Fuels Feb 27, 2007 Bill Blackwell Harvard (MA) Local: Solutions for a Sustainable Community www.harvardlocal.org

  2. Acknowledgmentof ideas, data and slides: • Richard Heinberg, New College, respected author on Peak Oil • Cutler Cleveland, BU Professor of Geography and Environment • Charlie Hall, SUNY-ESF • Arthur Smith, CEO John S. Herold, Inc. • Matthew Simmons, Chairman Simmons & Company International • Lawrence Livermore Natl Labs • Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture • Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute • Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC; Roger Bezdek & Robert Wendling, MISI • Kelly Sims Gallagher, JFK School of Government • M. King Hubbert, USGS Geophysicist • Kenneth Deffeyes, Geologist • Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review • Khebab, The Oil Drum • Stuart Staniford, Editor The Oil Drum • BP Statistical Review of World Energy • US-DOE Energy Information Agency (EIA) • ISO-NE • The New York Times • Colin Campbell, Geologist • Cameron Wake, UNH Paleoclimatologist • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Union of Concerned Scientists • J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada • Mark Archambault, Nashua River Watershed Assn. • US Census Bureau • Widmeyer Research & Polling • Richard Lawrence, ASPO-USA, Intel

  3. The 100 Year Energy Transition

  4. Composition of U.S. Energy Use From renewable fuels to non-renewable fuels in 200 years Cutler J. Cleveland, Prof. Geography and Environment, Boston University ASPO-USA Boston, MA October 27, 2006

  5. Arthur L. Smith, CEO John S. Herold, Inc., ASPO Boston 2006

  6. http://transitionculture.org/

  7. Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute www.rmi.org

  8. What’s so great about oil? • Incredibly energy dense • One gallon of oil produces energy equivalent to 45 people toiling all day. • Stable at room temperature • Easily stored and transported • Low cost of extraction (initially) • Versatile • Abundant http://transitionculture.org/

  9. How do we use oil? Mainly in transportation and space heating (65%) • World uses 84 million barrels/day • U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25%) Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC; Roger Bezdek, MISI; Robert Wendling, MISI February 2005

  10. Kelly Sims Gallagher, JFK School of Government, ASPO-USA 2006 Boston

  11. Dr. M. King HubbertUSGS Research GeophysicistShell Oil Geologist • In 1956, Hubbert predicted that US-48 oil production would peak in 1970. • Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from 1956.

  12. Hubbert’s Production Curve Production curve for a region = sum of the production of individual wells in the region.

  13. In most oil regions, production lags discovery by about 40 years

  14. Worldwide discovery peaked in 1964 Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after Exxon-Mobil 3yr moving average

  15. Worldwide production and demand

  16. Another way to look at global peak oil • The linearization of Hubbert’s curve. • P/Q vs. Q • P=Annual production • Q=Cumulative production • World reserves are predicted to be 2.1 trillion bbl, by following the line to P=0. • We have used half. Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil (2005) p 43, world oil production

  17. US oil productionHubbert linearization Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil (2005) p 38, US oil production

  18. What does Hubbert’s theory mean? • The oil production rate depends linearly on the fraction of the total oil that remains to be produced. • The same is true for any other finite resource. The ease of catching fish depends mostly on how many fish remain in the pond. Kenneth Deffeyes

  19. So what is ‘Peak Oil’? • It is the point when further expansion of oil production becomes impossible because: • New production flows are fully offset by production declines (depletion) • You never run out of oil • You do run out of incremental flows • The world depends on oil products to support growth Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review, ASPO 2005 Conference Denver

  20. There is much uncertainty about the size of global oil reserves and depletion rates. Roger H. Bezdek, ASPO-USA Boston 2006

  21. World production forecasts Graph made by Khebab of The Oil Drum, http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/13/225447/79

  22. World Production Stopped Increasing in late 2004 Stuart Staniford, ASPO-USA Boston 2006 Source - IEA.

  23. World productionas ofFebruary 2007 Peak Oil Update - February 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers Khebab, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2300

  24. Roger H. Bezdek, ASPO-USA Boston 2006

  25. Where is it? Regular Oil http://transitionculture.org/

  26. Is it really there? Middle East reserves “jumped” in the 1980’s, after OPEC established production quotas based on reserves. • Middle East reserves may be overstated by 300 billion barrels (Salameh 2004) • Only 20% of increased reserves are genuine (Deffeyes 2005) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

  27. We import 66% of our oil What are the top 4 countries from which the US imports oil? http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/crudebycountry.htm

  28. US Four Main Suppliers61% of imports, 40% of total • Canada peaked in 1973 • Will rely increasingly on Alberta oil sands, which require natural gas to produce (natural gas peaked in 2001). • Mexico peaked in 2004 • Cantarell, its largest oilfield, went into irreversible decline in 2006. Mexican imported oil to US dropped 16% in 2006. • Saudi Arabia may be at peak now • When its largest field (Ghawar) peaks, KSA will peak (Matt Simmons, Simmons International, oil investment banker) • Venezuela • Producing more heavy crude each year (expensive to refine) • Nationalizing its energy industries

  29. Living the Oil Age in an Irish pub 1900 2000 2100 http://transitionculture.org/

  30. New York Times editorial March 1, 2006 “The concept of peak oil has not been widely written about. But people are talking about it now. It deserves a careful look—largely because it is almost certainly correct.”

  31. Why does Peak Oil matter? • 80-95% of all transport on the planet is fueled by oil products and transport accounts for 70% of oil use • All petrochemicals are produced from oil • 99% of all lubrication is done with oil products • 95% of all goods in our stores get there using oil • 99% of our food involves oil or gas for fertilizers, agrochemicals, tilling, cultivation and transport. Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review, ASPO 2005 Conference Denver

  32. Challenges to the food system • Declining supply of fossil fuels • Fewer farmers • Only 1/7 of the human labor is required today as compared to 1900 (because of fossil fuels), therefore fewer people know how to farm. • Water • Snowpack in the Sierras is declining, reducing CA irrigation water. • Non-renewable aquifers are being depleted. • Will bring pressure on other regions to compensate. • Climate instability • Droughts, floods and stronger storms due to climate change • Land and topsoil availability • Soil depletion and development pressures • Decreasing genetic diversity of crops • Limits natural adaptability to the above stresses • These problems are all related to one another. The common factor is availability of cheap energy.

  33. Substitutes for conventional oil? All are important. Together they will not deliver the flows required by current & future demand at reasonable price. We must reduce demand through efficiency and using less. • Oil sands • Oil shale • Coal & CTL • Natural gas • Wind • Solar PV & thermal • Nuclear • Hydro • Biomass • Landfills

  34. How serious a problem is this?

  35. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk ManagementRobert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader(commissioned by US Department of Energy, February 2005) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

  36. No single fuel can replace oil “Oil has the greatest energy density of any fuel known to man, apart from nuclear. This means all alternatives are inferior.” Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review “Peak oil is a turning point in history of unparalleled magnitude, for never before has a resource as critical as oil become headed into decline from natural depletion without sight of a better substitute.” Dr. Colin Campbell, renowned oil geologist

  37. How should we face this? • Collectively, Humanity is: • Very clever, very ingenious, very adaptable • So it is reasonable to be optimistic. • It is reasonable to anticipate technical solutions we cannot currently envisage. • But humanity is also greedy, competitive, short-sighted and tribal. • Concern & apprehension are appropriate. Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review, ASPO 2005 Conference Denver

  38. A Look at Climate ChangeWhy reducing fossil fuel use is essential now

  39. Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006

  40. Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006

  41. Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006

  42. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Average temperatures from a range of IPCC energy scenarios short of deep cuts in fossil fuel use Threshold of severe danger: 2oC above pre-industrial average temperature (EU target not to exceed) Departures oC from the 1961 – 1990 avge.

  43. Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006

  44. Moving south Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006 Union of Concerned Scientists, Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast

  45. Natural Gas Resources • U.S natural gas peaked in 2001. • Drilling has doubled in 5 years. • Production is declining. J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada, ASPO-USA Boston 2006

  46. Falling behind on the treadmill If we stopped drilling gas wells, production would drop at 25% per year. J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada, ASPO-USA Boston 2006

  47. The gas we use is primarily from U.S. and Canada J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada, ASPO-USA Boston 2006

  48. New England generates 29% of its electricity from natural gas Source: ISO-NE

More Related