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Trends in Agricultural Trade. Peter S Liapis Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD. Joint ICTSD-FAO expert meeting Geneva Switzerland, March 25-26 2010. Agricultural Exports (1995-2008). Includes Intra EU. Excludes Intra EU. Total Merchandise Export (1995-2008). Includes Intra EU.

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trends in agricultural trade

Trends in Agricultural Trade

Peter S Liapis

Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD

Joint ICTSD-FAO expert meeting Geneva Switzerland, March 25-26 2010

agricultural exports 1995 2008
Agricultural Exports (1995-2008)

Includes Intra EU

Excludes Intra EU

total merchandise export 1995 2008
Total Merchandise Export (1995-2008)

Includes Intra EU

Excludes Intra EU

income level and share of agricultural exports

06-08

95-97

51.0

46.6

23.9

22.6

22.0

19.6

High income

OECD

7.4

6.8

60.6

59.2

21.1

20.4

High income

Non OECD

14.5

13.3

5.7

5.2

36.3

34.1

29.7

28.4

22.2

21.1

Upper middle

income

15.1

13.0

30.1

30.1

29.0

28.1

25.3

22.5

17.6

17.3

Lower middle

income

68.3

56.2

16.4

16.1

15.3

11.3

10.1

6.4

Low income

Income Level and Share of Agricultural Exports

Process products

Semi-Process products

Horticultural products

Bulk products

06-08

06-08

95-97

95-97

06-08

95-97

income level and share of agricultural imports

44.7

36.9

24.7

23.6

21.9

17.4

16.0

14.8

52.3

50.9

22.1

19.3

18.3

16.7

10.3

10.1

45.9

44.7

25.2

22.9

22.4

21.7

10.0

7.3

35.4

34.6

33.4

31.2

28.1

27.9

5.5

3.9

36.2

33.8

32.7

31.7

29.6

29.0

4.4

2.6

Income Level and Share of Agricultural Imports

Process products

Semi-Process products

Horticultural products

Bulk products

06-08

06-08

06-08

95-97

95-97

95-97

06-08

95-97

High income

OECD

High income

Non OECD

Upper middle

income

Lower middle

income

Low income

agricultural imports share of gdp
Agricultural Imports share of GDP

Average 1995-97

Average 2006-08

key macroeconomic assumptions
Key macroeconomic assumptions

2009 global economic recession

2010 global economic recovery

2% annual inflation in OECD; higher in BRICs

stronger US dollar

stable policy regime

slide17

Main outlook messages

  • Agriculture more resilient to global economic crisis
  • Real prices to remain at or above 1997-2006 levels
  • Production increases in the 10 to 40% range
  • Developing countries driving demand and export growth
  • Expansion of biofuels – largely driven by mandates
real prices at or above historical levels
Real prices at or above historical levels

% change relative to 1997-2006 average

steady growth of global production
Steady growth of global production

Production Growth from 2006-08 average to 2018

Growth realised until 2008

Growth from 2008 to 2018

output growth from 2004 08 to 2018
Output growth from 2004-08 to 2018

Output Growth is largest in non-OECD area

demand growth from 2004 08 to 2018
Demand growth from 2004-08 to 2018

Demand growth is largest in non-OECD area

slide23

Export growth in developing countries

Export growth from 2006-08 average to 2018

summing up future prospects
Summing Up Future Prospects…
  • Global demand has been strong, with

… higher growth outside the OECD area, and

… for higher value food and non-food products.

  • Increased price volatility is expected.
  • The impact of the economic crisis is unclear,

… as are future policy directions.

slide28

Policy responses to Food Security Concerns

  • Rely on objective information & analysis
  • Provide humanitarian aid and short-term support to increase output in developing countries
  • Keep import and export markets open; conclude ambitious DDA agreement
  • Review/reform biofuel support policies
  • Monitor/address balance of payments situation
slide29

Medium & long term policy responses…

  • Improve the purchasing power of the poor in developing countries – economy wide growth is needed to contribute to poverty reduction
  • Improve the productivity of global agriculture, particularly in developing countries - education, infrastructure, research and development, technology transfer and innovation are essential
slide30

Conclusion

  • Short term measures are vital to address food security today, but medium & long term actions are also needed
  • More open markets are necessary, but insufficient
  • An increased, long term, sustained commitment to development, both within and outside agriculture, is essential
conclusion
Conclusion
  • The fundamental factor is – supply response
    • Price transmission to local markets
    • Technological progress
    • Need to address climate change/water availability/sustainability
  • Food affordability (poverty reduction) is the key food security issue
thank you
Thank You

Trade and Agriculture Directorate

Visit our website:

www.oecd.org/agriculture

Contact us:

Pete.liapis@oecd.org