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OwlSim : Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology

OwlSim : Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology. COMP 410 in Collaboration with Citizens for Affordable Energy. Overview. Introduction Simulation Framework Energy Model and Plans Advanced Features Conclusion Questions. Overview. Introduction The Class: COMP 410

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OwlSim : Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology

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  1. OwlSim: Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology COMP 410 in Collaboration with Citizens for Affordable Energy

  2. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

  3. Overview • Introduction • The Class: COMP 410 • The Customer: Citizens for Affordable Energy • Project Motivation • The Mission • The Team • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

  4. The Class: COMP 410 • “Software Engineering Methodology” • Design class satisfying computer science Bachelors of Science degree capstone requirement • Warm-up project during first 3 weeks, then semester-long project … with a real customer! • Student driven – no problem sets or lectures

  5. The Customer:Citizens for Affordable Energy • CFAE is a national not-for-profit membership association • Goal is to educate citizens and policymakers about non-partisan national energy solutions • Leadership • John Hofmeister, Founder and CEO • Karen Hofmeister, Executive Director • www.citizensforaffordableenergy.org

  6. Project Motivation • CFAE is concerned with the lack of a long-term national energy policy Current policy may result in serious shortfalls in energy availability, affordability and sustainability • CFAE wants a public software tool to simulate the long-term effects of national policies

  7. The Mission • Develop a simulation framework to predict the effects of policies • Model U.S. electric power generation and distribution • Create plans corresponding to best, average, and worst case scenarios • Make the results accessible to the public

  8. The Team • User Interface Team • Jesus Cortez, Team Leader • Robyn Moscowitz • Tung Nguyen • Narae Kim • Simulation Team • AshrithPillarisetti, Team Leader • Linge Dai • Mina Yao

  9. The Team • Modeling Team • Irina Patrikeeva, Team Leader • Elizabeth Fudge • Ace Emil • Framework Team • Weibo He, Team Leader • Jarred Payne • Yunming Zhang • XiangjinZou

  10. Management and Support • Robert Brockman II – Project Manager • James Morgensen – Architect • Daniel Podder – Integration Master • Elizabeth Fudge – Organization Master

  11. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Theoretical Design • System Capabilities • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

  12. Theoretical Design • Modeling complex systems with mathematical functions • Functions represented as modular “circuit elements” with inputs and outputs • Functional modules can be “composited” • Encapsulate components of model • Allows composite modules with other modules inside. • Arbitrarily complicated models can be created

  13. System Capabilities • Scalability & Elasticity • Scaling up and down according to loads • Possible Parallel and distributed simulation instances • Possible Load Balancing • Flexibility • Supporting multiple Use Cases • Easy Maintenance , low cost • Stability • Handling hardware failures • Handling software failures

  14. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Model Implementation • Viewing the Results • Worst, Average and Best Case Scenarios • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

  15. Model Implementation • Four main components drive the simulation • Producer Module • Consumer Module • Infrastructure Module • Environment Module

  16. The Model Details • Producer simulates • Production of electricity from 8 sources • Coal • Natural Gas • Nuclear • Hydroelectric • Wind • Solar • Geothermal • Other (fuel cells, hydrogen, etc.) • Production of transportation fuel from 2 sources • Oil (petroleum) • Biofuels

  17. The Model Details • Infrastructure module simulates • Transport of electricity and fuel • Exchanges the price with Producer module • Consumer module simulates • Electricity and fuel demand from consumers • Environmental module simulates • The net pollution emitted by Producer, infrastructure and consumer modules

  18. Simulation Design • The system starts at 2010 with a list of initial values or assumptions • Based on the assumptions Producer calculates net production of electricity and fuel • User can provide events that change assumptions and affect the energy future generation

  19. User Assumptions • User has the ability to change many aspects of simulation, including (but not limited to): • How much electricity and fuel is produced from each source • Net electricity and pollution produced from each source (by changing power plants capacity) • Electricity lost due to transmission • Cost of production from each source • Population growth rate

  20. Worst-Case Plan • Simulation runs with default values (2010 data) • No new power plants are built • Nothing is done to reduce pollution • Population and energy demand grows while supply decreases due to decommission of old power plants

  21. Average-Case Plan • User builds new energy sources • Producing more electricity from cleaner renewable energy reduces the gap between supply and demand • Environmental pollution is reduced • No technological breakthroughs (capacity and cost of production do not drastically change)

  22. Best-Case Plan • Supply meets demand • Energy is produced from clean renewable sources at affordable price • Pollution is reduced

  23. Comparison with Other Models • No complicated equations • Directly shows user changes • Easy to use and test various assumptions • Unbiased

  24. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Changing the Plans • Changing the Model • System Administration • Conclusion • Questions

  25. Changing the Plans • User logs in using a Windows Live ID • Edit plan • Change inputs to simulation • Adding, changing events • Save plan • Simulate model with modified plan

  26. Changing the Model • Allows completely customized models using XML format

  27. System Administration • Used by CFAE administrators • Adding Users • Changing Privileges

  28. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Implications for Energy Policy Development • Acknowledgements • Questions

  29. Implications for Energy Policy Development • Ability to model new policies rapidly • Lots of flexibility • Common ground to model different policies with same framework • Education of public • Public forum for discussion on energy policy

  30. Acknowledgements • CFAE • John Hofmeister, Karen Hofmeister • Professors • Dr. Stephen Wong, Dr. Scott Rixner • TAs • Dennis Qian, Max Grossman, MilindChabbi, Rahul Kumar • Oshman Engineering Design Kitchen staff • Microsoft

  31. Acknowledgements • Smalley Institute: • Dr. Wade Adams • Dr. Carter Kittrell • Dr. Richard Johnson • Steven Wolff • Others • Jeffrey Bridge, Jeffrey Hokanson, Stamatios George Mastrogiannis

  32. Questions

  33. References • EIA etc.

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