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The climate change program in LAC. Use of the earth simulator Walter Vergara January 17, 2008. Climate change strategy in Latin America.

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the climate change program in lac

The climate change program in LAC

Use of the earth simulator

Walter Vergara

January 17, 2008

climate change strategy in latin america
Climate change strategy in Latin America
  • a) To support low carbon economic growth, in particular for the energy and transport sectors, which represent the bulk of emissions in the region and promote avoidance of deforestation;
  • b) To support the process of adaptation, focused on key vulnerabilities as identified under the national communications process to the UNFCCC; and
  • c) to support the linkages between knowledge and capacity building and decision making.
slide4
Projected change in temperature* (1990-99) to (2090-99)

along the American Cordillera, from Alaska to Chile

Mountain peaks

Limited data

Limited data

South

North

*Mean of 8 GCM simulations from IPCC 4th Assessment

using scenario A2

Source: Bradley , Vuille, Diaz and Vergara, Science, 2006

slide5
A temperature increase of 4o C is anticipated to lead to a collapse of the Amazon Rainforest Ecosystem (Brazil, Colombia, Bolivia)
carbon finance in lac
Carbon finance in LAC
  • In Latin America:
    • Fifty two projects in preparation
    • Seventeen emission reduction contracts
    • Renewable energy (solar, eolic, geothermal)
    • Waste management (landfill gas, wastewater

treatment)

    • Transport
    • Carbon sinks (reforestation, avoided

deforestation)

    • Others (industrial gases)
access to information and linking science to development
Access to information and linking science to development
  • Support the institutional framework for the implementation of the UNFCC mandates
  • Provide a bridge between science and development
    • Meteorological Research Institute (Japan)
    • National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)
    • Pool of glaciology institutes (Insbruck, IRD, UMASS)
    • Japanese Space Agency (Japan)
    • Georgia Tech University (USA)
    • NOAA (USA)
four points on adaptation
Four points on adaptation
  • Ecosystem approach (rather than economic sectors)
  • Trends vs variability ( avoids noise and unreliability)
  • Pilots means pilots (no money for large schemes)
  • Moral hazard (borrowing for adaptation means rich energy intensive societies have passed on the bill?)
adaptation measures in coastal zones of the west indies spa us 7 m
Adaptation measures in coastal zones of the West Indies (SPA-US$7 m)
  • Measures addressing impacts of climate change on coastal areas.
    • Water water desalinization using wind energy for the Islands of Bequia and Union (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)
    • Strengthened critical coastal infrastructure in the Castries area (St. Lucia).
    • Recovery and accretion of coral reefs (St. Lucia).
    • Climate resilient management plan for national parks (Dominica)
    • Approved: Sept 6, 2006
colombia integrated national adaptation plan us 15 m spa
Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Plan (US$15 m-SPA)
  • Pilot adaptation measures focused on:
    • High altitude moorlands (water regulation, carbon storage, hydro-energy)
        • Riparian belts, reforestation, habitat conservation

Increased exposure to Malaria and Dengue

        • Strengthen detection and prevention programs and infrastructure
    • Approved: April 11, 2006
adaptation to climate impacts in glaciarized basins bolivia ecuador peru sccf 32 million
Adaptation to climate impacts in Glaciarized basins (Bolivia, Ecuador Peru)- SCCF, $32 million
  • Water supply
    • Development of alternative sources
    • Demand management
    • Engineered storage
  • Energy supply
    • Diversification of supply
  • Agriculture
    • Alternative crops,
    • Advanced irrigation systems
  • Scheduled for Board approval March 08
mexico gulf coast wetlands us 28m sccf
Mexico: Gulf Coast Wetlands– US$28m-SCCF
  • Assess climate impact on national water budget assessment
  • Address impacts from subsidence and salination on the Gulf Coast of Mexico:
    • Restoration of natural surface drainage
    • Rationalization of water use
    • Regeneration of soil cover
    • New set asides
  • Scheduled for GEF approval by

June 08

combining adaptation and mitigation
Combining adaptation and mitigation
  • Nariva ecosystem restoration in

Trinidad (CF: E$2m; CCIG: $0.5 m).

    • Restore natural drainage
    • Restore soil cover
    • Prevent fires
  • A restored coastal ecosystem:
    • Will:
      • promote carbon sinks
      • protect biodiversity
      • provide buffer to storm surges
earth simulator
Earth Simulator
  • Scope of the Cooperation.
    • training in Japan to enable

efficient use of ES data

    • technical assistance

to interpret results

    • scientific exchange
    • cooperation for dissemination

of results in scientific literature

    • data storage
    • feedback to ES for better

future simulation at regional

level

  • Architecture
    • 40 Teraflops!!!!!!!!!
    • 20 x 20 km grid resolution
    • Future 5 x 5 km grid resolution
numerical methods and runs
The unified model utilizes:

• Semi-Lagrangian integration scheme

• Short-Wave Parameterization by Shibata & Uchiyama

• Long-Wave Parameterization by Shibata & Aoki

• Cumulous Parameterization by Arakawa & Schubert

• In clouds, consideration of large-scale condensation, cumulus, and stratocumulus

• Parameterization of the boundary layer: 2-level closed system of Mellor & Yamada

Numerical methods and runs

AGCM developed jointly by the Center for Cli-mate System Research (CCSR) of the University of Tokyo and the

Japanese National Institute for Environmental Sci-ences (NIES). The particular version of the CCSR/NIES AGCM

has been used for several international modeling ef-forts, including future projections for the Intergovernmental

Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, SRES) and the Atmos-pheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP).

second stage mou with mri
Second stage MOU with MRI
  • Add Amazon basin simulation
  • Add extreme events medium term
  • Add 5 by 5 km resolution
  • Extend MOU by 5 additional years (to 2012)
  • Estimated value of MOU: US$10 million
  • Estimated Bank contributions: US$1 million
slide21
Net reduction in precipitation during winter months projected through the use of the Earth Simulator
slide26
Comparison of actual (average 1961-1990 data from 685 weather stations) vs modeled isothermals (run AM from the Earth Simulator) and future temperatures (2080-2099)

Source: (IDEAM report on activities under Partnership MRI-WB, 2006)

slide32
A comprehensive climate change program needs to tackle besides adaptation and mitigation, links between information and decision making
  • There are many science and knowledge institutions eager to work with the Bank on this issue
  • Better understanding of impacts requires of strong observational networks and a view on direction and intensity of trends
  • The use of the Earth Simulator has facilitated the visualization of these trends
  • Combined with other tools and methods, the information provided has been of support to the formulation of adaptation strategies
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