Summary of WMO 1 st Meeting of the CAeM Expert Team on New Terminal Weather Forecast

1. Summary of WMO 1st Meeting of the CAeM Expert Team on New Terminal Weather Forecast

2. Terms of Reference of WMO Expert Team on New Ternminal Forecast (ET/NTF) • The Expert Team on New Terminal Weather Forecast was established by WMO following the adoption of Resolution 3 (CAeM-XIII) with the following Terms of Reference: • “To establish a number of small and focussed Expert Teams, an Expert Network, and a Rapporteur, to tackle specific issues, with the following terms of reference: • To develop in close cooperation with the relevant bodies of ICAO proposals for a new terminal weather forecast adapted to the needs of the 21st Century; • To develop guidance on the provision of new and tailored services for all aviation stakeholders including airlines, commercial and general aviation, national and regional air traffic management and airport operators.

3. Limitation of standard OPMET data • Existing MET products: TAF, TREND, take-off forecast etc.  Annex 3 standard MET products • Limitations and Gap: • Crosswind, headwind, gusts, windshear, turbulence, change group criteria • TAF -- Limited for aerodrome area (~5 km around HKIA)

4. Different countries develop different products to cater for the gap • Similarity • More details between 0-2 hours  nowcasting products • Probabilistic forecast • Use of graphical/tabular form with alerting criteria • Lead times exceed the 2-hour limitation of TREND forecast • Weather briefing in plane language • Collaborative Decision Making products (all partners share the information)

5. Weather Briefing Sydney Airport Weather Briefing (Australia) Issued at 0450Z on 01/01/04 Sydney TAF TAF YSSY 010436Z 0606 03015KT CAVOKFM18 01010KT CAVOKFM02 03015KT CAVOKT 27 25 23 21 Q 1009 1009 1009 1010 TAF SummaryA high in the Tasman is directing a northerly flow over Sydney. The fresh northeast winds will ease this evening and tend northerly overnight. The northeast sea breeze will return again tomorrow around mid morning. There was a thunderstorm 45nm north-northwest of Sydney airport this afternoon, however it moved slowly to the east. There is the chance of some thunderstorm activity about the ranges west of Sydney again tomorrow. Thunderstorm Potential There is a slight chance of thunderstorms occurring within 20nm of Sydney Airport tomorrow. Other Possibilities20% chance there will be more than 20 knots crosswind gusts on runway 16/34-tomorrow afternoon. 10% chance thunderstorms will develop overnight. A Code Grey has been issued (see below). Sydney Outlook Saturday: City min 22, max 30. Fine, mostly sunny. N/NE winds, freshening near the coast in the afternoon. Sunday: City min 21, max 32. Fine. N/NE winds. CODE GREY10% chance of 3000m in TS between 14-24Z. Regards Richard until 7pm, then Chris. Sydney Airport Meteorological Unit

6. Weather Briefing Weather Summary Page (HK) Provide assessment of the latest weather situation Additional information beyond TAF, e.g. likelihood of strong crosswinds, windshear, low visibility Outlook for up to 48 hours

7. Nowcasting Automated Thunderstorm Alert Service (Australia)

8. Nowcasting Nowcasting of thunderstorms for terminal area (HK)

9. Probabilistic forecast generation... Deterministic Forecast Initial Condition Uncertainty X Analysis Climatology Forecast uncertainty time

10. Probability forecast (Canada) • Ensemble Prediction Systems are able to convey information about the uncertainty that is inherent in meteorology.

11. Probability Maps (Canada)

12. http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ensemble/index_naefs_e.html

13. Tabular form with alerting thresholds Observation board (France): 1st WMO New Terminal area Weather Forecast ET, Hong-Kong, China, 12-16 march 2007

14. Tabular form with alerting thresholds Forecasting board (France): Includes nowcasting, short and medium range forecasting for CDG 1st WMO New Terminal area Weather Forecast ET, Hong-Kong, China, 12-16 march 2007

15. Tabular form with alerting thresholds « Atmogramme » (France) : All codes, symbols and colours have been defined in collaboration with users 1st WMO New Terminal area Weather Forecast ET, Hong-Kong, China, 12-16 march 2007

16. Tabular form with alerting thresholds Extended take-off forecast (HK) Extended forecast up to 18 hrs Updated every half-hour Crosswind rounded to nearest knot (error ± 5 kt) Crosswind highlighted > 25kt (1-3 hr -> red 4-18 hr -> amber)

17. NowcastingTactical Decision Aid for Terminal (USA) • Corner posts are “entrances in the sky” surrounding major airports, 50-70 miles away. • Air traffic is sequenced through these posts. • Location of posts is fixed, and each has its own unique weather limitations. Map of northeastern Texas, showing gridded data values valid for the gridpoints closest to Fort Worth airport (center) and its four surrounding corner posts.

18. Tabular form with alerting thresholds Tactical Decision Aid for Terminal (USA) • For each corner post and time projection... • Time series with appropriate color. • allows decision makers to quickly assess the current and future capacity of each corner post. Decision makers can then efficiently plan and direct traffic flow. In this example, the BYP corner post at Fort Worth is showing a high probability of Thunderstorms in the 19-20z timeframe.

19. Use of internet • AMIDS • Facilitate sharing of information between different user groups • SMS

20. Aerodrome area • 5 km range

21. Effect of weather on Arrivals07L ILS Approach

22. Effect of weather on Departures • DEP Flow Control

23. Terminal Area definition • Based on IATA (ATM Implementation Roadmap – Short and Medium Term (release version 1.0 2004-10-15): • The Terminal Area is defined as that portion of the airspace within the proximity of a controlled aerodrome within which arriving and departing aircraft are managed to provide separation, assurance, appropriate arrival spacing, appropriate departure spacing and final approach sequencing.

24. Workplan • Briefing to user groups • User consultation • Perception of gaps in the current service • Seek inputs, comments and requirements • Perform gap analysis • Current ICAO standards and recommended practices • Current activities related to terminal area • Existing meteorological applications • Current and future capabilities ( in space and time) • review and analyse data • Report to AMOS Study Group meeting – Apr 2008

25. Thank you