2 nd VAAC Best Practices Seminar – report to IVATF/4

1. 2nd VAAC Best Practices Seminar – report to IVATF/4 ICAO Headquarters, Montreal 12-13 June 2012

2. Review: themes from 1st Seminar “Visible Ash” and how an area of ash is analysed (or forecast) in Volcanic Ash Advisories. Data exchange, the role of the ‘Lead VAAC’, collaborative decision-making, and forecast validation Articulating forecast confidence/uncertainty • Increased mutual understanding • Better outcomes

3. Example Confidence Chart – from Wellington

4. From Argentina’s presentation • VULNERABILITY TO MONITOR VOLCANIC ASH • GOES-SA Cancellation: There is a great concern about cancellation of GOES-SA. Currently the image reception is very erratic in response to the satellite present situation which will end up in its total cancellation in the near future. • Alternative is GOES-E which covers the whole area of responsibility only every 3 hours and up to 45° South (approx.) every 30 min. Nevertheless, this smaller sector is canceled every time GOES-E is requested to monitor severe weather events over the US. The lack of an appropriate channel to detect volcanic ash is the main source of vulnerability in the ability of Buenos Aires VAAC to monitor VA in its area of responsibility (CH5 instead of CH6 is needed!). Since May 5th, we began to receive and process satellite imagery of GOES-E

5. NO DATA IN THIS REGION NO DATA IN THIS REGION NO DATA IN THIS REGION

6. Agreement on Southern Hemisphere coordination test – 4 VAAC circumpolar

7. Tokyo VAAC case study 7 • Eruptions of Mt.KLIUCHEVSKOI and Mt.SHEVELUCH • in the part of North of Kamchatkan Peninsula • on October 27th and 28th in 2010

8. Record of the eruptions 8

9. Record of handover Tokyo VAAC sent a FAX to Anchorage VAAC. Tokyo VAAC sent a FAX Sheets to request handover to Anchorage VAAC. Tokyo VAAC issued VAA for the ash cloud in our area of responsibility. Tokyo Anchorage Anchorage VAAC issued VAA for the ash cloud in their area of responsibility. Tokyo:VAA100 Anchorage:VAA002 9

10. HRS(Handover Request Sheet) 10 VAGIshows latest area of ash clouds. • Tokyo VAAC uses the preformed fax-sheet that called HRS written in Japanese and English to bridge language gap. • Tokyo VAAC sends HRS with issued VAA, VAG and VAGI.

11. Part covered with meteorological clouds Difficult to determine the covered area by meteorological clouds 11 Thick black line – Prediction & Observation Aqua line – Covered areas by meteorological clouds

12. Confidence Levels More than 2/3 of polygon contains identified ash cloud -> High Between one third and two thirds of ash cloud's edges discernible -> Mid Ash cloud top reported or measured objectively -> High In this case, Confidence Level defines as Mid. Thick black line – Prediction & Observation Aqua line – Covered areas by meteorological clouds 12

13. Confidence Levels In this case, Confidence Level define as Mid. 13

14. Approach of Darwin VAAC for Confidence Levels The confidence level of a polygon edge 14 Black line – High confidence Blue line – Med confidence Red line – Low conficence

15. Approach of Darwin VAAC for Confidence Levels Black line – High confidence Blue line – Med confidence Red line – Low confidence 15

16. London VAAC – hands on case study

17. Discussion….

22. Produced by Fred Prata.

24. Some insights… VAAC best practice is... The expert evaluation of the best available sources of meteorological and vulcanological information: qualititative and quantitative satellite data model output ground and airborne based in-situ and remotely sensed observations pilot reports ‪using (where possible) collaborative approaches, to derive authoritative, high quality, evidence based and globally consistent analysis and forecasts.

25. CDM CDAF = Collaborative Decision Analysis and Forecasting Output from the CDAF becomes the input to “real” CDM. Need to establish rules for CDAF and document these rules in either the Handbook or other document. Focus of CDAF includes the ash cloud at the VAAC boundaries, as well as tops, bases and horizontal extent. No CDAF during the initial eruption, but rather occur once the event is ongoing, but certainly within 24 hours. Define a common library of English terms to be used, so that all VAACs, regardless of their native language, can collaborate and exchange information.

26. CDM Need a collaborative tool (visualization and interactive tool) to achieve good results. Tool can be used to share information, consult with others, and used by others to follow the process. Membership: Keep the size small for analysis of ash cloud (perhaps 2-3 VAACs and Met Watch Offices)

27. OBS VA CLD(T=0) for Confidence levels Expand to incorporate nil ash – may have to be treated differently Include temporal considerations Decision on when the ash has dissipated below ‘discernability’ More discussion of evidence (pilot reports, strength of animation, qualitiative versus quantitative Input from VASAG on new technologies (ref discussion in IVATF) 27 Excerpt from BPS/1

28. Volcanic ash confidence level for time T+0 The forecaster should analyse both single and multi-spectral satellite imagery Consideration of “good” real-time observations. A decision amongst VAACs could take place to define the term “good”. The forecaster should consider the effect that the presence of poorly predicted meteorology (e.g. tropical weather) has on volcanic ash analysis. There should be “strong agreement” between observations sources. A decision amongst VAACs could take place to define “strong agreement”. The forecaster should have a thorough understanding of the VAAC’s observational sources, including the limitations. Standardised guidelines detailing how a VAAC goes about deciding upon confidence levels is required.

29. Analysis process Consultation should occur with end users to ensure that confidence levels are fully understood by the wider aviation community. Confidence levels could be affected by which volcano observatory is issuing the required VONA. The steps that a forecaster would follow when deciding upon certain confidence levels should be transparent. Trialling of agreed processes involving end users should occur before inclusion as part of official VAAC operations. A further comment was made about potentially using the RMK section of the VAA to convey the associated confidence level in the required text format. Concern around the additional workload that deciding on confidence levels may bring to operations. VAACs should possess the same operational abilities as those VAACs for which they provide backup.

30. Volcanic ash graphic presentation • Education is essential • only 2 levels of confidence are necessaryo High (black)o Low (red) • horizontal and Vertical extent should be considered • No obvious problems to using colour • Technically achievable if VAG is available in XML/GML o Rapid progress/implementation is possible as colour version doesn’t contradict Annex 3 • Black & white version is what we have now , colour would be an Enhancement only

31. Resourcing Issue: The funding of the IAVW, its operations and development, is becoming increasingly difficult. Future: There is expected to be increasing pressure for more sophisticated VAAC operations, remote sensing systems, and the funding of a “primary aviation” volcano observing network.

32. Notes on funding The contemporary aviation meteorological system is suffering increasing opportunity cost losses in funding comparatively new IAVW responsibilities within reducing resources. Governments are unlikely to redress this situation. Other funding mechanisms and related management systems need to be explored. There is experience to be drawn from in areas such as SADIS funding. There are other international initiatives that are funded and managed by international bodies that should be investigated (eg: World Bank operations). The risk in any global system of funding will need to deal with aggregated business risk.

33. The way forward - funding

34. The future in VAAC science/operations… Strong need to push the leading edge Best practices  WMO Workshop process Quality management / continuous improvement