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Car restraining in Beijing:Evaluating the factors that impede or facilitate Jiang Kejun, Huang Liya Energy Research Institute Transport Planning and Research Institute 1 December 2006
Contents • Background • Policy challenges in Beijing • Future transport scenarios • Policies and measures newly adopted or planned • Strategic analysis
Chapter 1:Background Rapid economic growth Urbanization process Beijing Huge Immigration Private carsincrease Rising transport and environmental problems
Chapter 1:Background • The development of Transport in Beijing
Chapter 2: Policy challenges in Beijing • Factors analysis: Which ones promote vehicle growth in Beijing? • Problems analysis: What are caused by growth of vehicles?
2.1 Factors promoting vehicle growth In recent years in Beijing: Private carsincrease dramatically : -more than 80% of newly increased vehicles in Beijing are carssince 2000 Income increase Car industry promotion Car Price fall Diversification of car fashion Easier financing or loan for affording a car Deficient public transport Rising transport and environmental problems
2.2 Problems caused by growth of vehicles Rising transport and environmental problems Traffic congestions • urban congestion areas increased noise pollution • average traffic noisy level is 69.6, where 68.1 in urban and 70.3 in suburb in 2004 Air pollution • the heaviest NOx pollution among all north cities
BaU: Government Promotion TG: Technology Progress CF: Clean Future Chapter 3: Future transport scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Chapter 3: Future transport scenarios Scenario 1: Government promotion (BaU) Present transportation policies will continue; Present vehicles with lower energy use will become gradually more popular.
Chapter 3: Future transport scenarios Scenario 2: Technology Progress (TG) • Additional environment-friendly policies will be introduced e.g.emission standard, public transport promotion policies; • Present vehicles with lower energy use will soon become more popular e.g. high fuel economy gasoline vehicle , new diesel vehicles.
Chapter 3: Future transport scenarios Scenario 3: Clean future (CF) • the introduction of advanced cars (e.g. hybrid cars, fuel-cell cars) • policies to encourage mini cars Additional policies and measures : to improve the environmental performance of transport system • integrated design of transportation system and city function areas • top priority given to public transit • use of bio-gasoline • public involvement
Chapter 4: Policies and measures newly adopted or planned 1 Environmental policies 2 Economic policies 3Urban planningpolicies
Chapter 4: Policies and measures newly adopted or planned 1 Environmental policies: vehicle emission control • Emission standards Began to implement Europe Emission Standard III in 2005; Plan to implement National Emission Standard IV by 2008. • Promote high efficiency vehicles Vehicle fuel tax will be adopted in near future, to replace existing road construction fee. • Improve fuel quality standard High quality fuel standard was announced, and fuel provider was asked to produce cleaner (sulphur content less than 150ppmv) gasoline and diesel before 2007.
Chapter 4: Policies and measures newly adopted or planned 2 Economic policies • Vehicle consumption tax The tax rate was revised to promote compact carsin 2006 • Parking fees The fee standards in Beijingwere increased in 2002,they are differed by region, parking time and vehicle type • Gasoline and diesel consumption tax 0.2yuan/litter for unleaded vehicle use gasoline 0.1yuan/litter for diesel • Subsidy for public transport In 2005, subsidy from government on bus system is 1billion yuan, and 0.5billion yuan on subway
Chapter 4: Policies and measures newly adopted or planned 3Urban planningpolicies • “Public transport first” Planning By 2008, 18,000 fleets of transit buses will number , 650 public transport lines By 2010, 13 subway lines and 2 extension lines, totalling 408 kilometres. By 2020, 20 subway lines, totalling 700 kilometres. There will be more than 1000km mass railway transport system in Beijing Additional 360 kilometres of MRTS will link the central downtown core with the 14 satellite towns located on Beijing’s outskirts • Intelligence transport system development Beijing Olympic intelligence transport system
Car restraining policies Roles in policy making process implementation problems Cross-sector impact Chapter 5: Strategic analysis Strategic analysis Uncertainties on key assumptions
Chapter 5: Strategic analysis • The key policies for restrainingcar-using in Beijing • Fuel tax-1to 1.5 yuan/litter for gasoline and diesel before 2010, then increase it to be near European level by 2020 • Road pricing (also named as traffic jam fee)-implement road fee for area within second ring road • Public transport development-by 2020, share of public transport will increase to more than 50% • No-entry regulation -vehicles in some areas are forbidden to get, e.g. Wangfujing Commercial area • Road network development-better design for bicycle lane and sideway • Public awareness-involvement of public for their choice on travel
Chapter 5: Strategic analysis • Roles in policy making process in Beijing National government agencies Research teams Beijing government agencies policies Public involvement
Chapter 5: Strategic analysis • Uncertainties on key assumptions • Fuel tax, uncertainties on: • Effect of reducing car use • Effect of increasing sales of energy-saving cars • Road pricing • uncertainty on cost-benefit balance
Chapter 5: Strategic analysis implementation problems
Chapter 5: Strategic analysis • Cross-sectorimpact