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Fredericksburg Regional Alliance

Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University. Mission: Grow Regional Economy Only Regional Economic Development Organization in VA that Raises its Own Money

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Fredericksburg Regional Alliance

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  1. Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

  2. Mission: Grow Regional Economy • Only Regional Economic Development Organization in VA that Raises its Own Money • Is Governed by a 16 Member Board of Directors • Business Community Leaders and Elected Officials Serve on the Same Board • One of 16 Regional Economic Development Organizations in Virginia

  3. Thank You Caroline County Stafford County City of Fredericksburg Spotsylvania County King George County And The Numerous Private Sector Businesses in the Fredericksburg Region

  4. Thank You Investors A-Long Realty Advisors Anderson & Strudwick Appian Realty Advisors BB&T Birchwood Power Partners, L.P. Carter Bank & Trust City of Fredericksburg EDA City of Fredericksburg County of Caroline Cox Business Services CVS Distribution Design Craft Homes Dickinson Equipment, Inc. Directive 63 Dominion Virginia Power ECS Mid-Atlantic, LLC English Construction Company, Inc. Fredericksburg Area Association of Realtors Freeman Beverage Company, Inc. G.L.M.G. GEICO Germanna Community College GWRC HCA Hilldrup Moving & Storage Jabberwocky Books & Albertine Prop. Johnson Realty Advisors King George County King George EDA Luck Stone Medicorp Mid-Atlantic Foam MITCO Land Development Co. M&T Bank Muvico Old Dominion Electric Cooperative P.C. Goodloe & Son, Inc. PBGH, LLP PermaTreat Inc. - Corporate Office Peoples Community Bank PNC Bank Pohanka Nissan Cadillac Quarles Petroleum, Inc. Rappahannock Electric Cooperative Robert B. Payne, Inc. Rosner Motors Sands, Anderson, Marks & Miller Silver Companies Spangler Erkert & Associates Splitsville Spotsylvania County Spotsylvania County EDA Stafford County Stafford County EDA Stellar One Thalhimer/Cushman & Wakefield The Garrett Company The Roseman Company The Wardman Companies, Inc. Tommy Mitchell Real Estate Ultimate Pontiac, Buick, GMC, Isuzu Union Bank & Trust Universal Stone & Supplies University of Mary Washington VA Commerce Bank Vanderpool, Frostick & Nishanian, P.C. Verizon Virginia Credit Union Virginia Partners Bank Virginia Community Bank W.J. Vakos & Company W.M. Jordan Company

  5. Strengths of the Fredericksburg Regional Economy • Healthcare - Destination • Government Contracting - 850 • 3 Military Bases – Unique Cluster • Federal Payroll (in addition to military) • Location – 46 miles of I-95 • Labor Force (1.2 Million) – Reverse Commute • Retail Shopping Destination – 520,000 Trade Area • Tourism and Hospitality Industry • Financial Services, Real Estate and Insurance • Growth in Higher Education • Construction • Local Government • Transportation • Utilities

  6. Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

  7. Fredericksburg Regional Alliance The Washington Area Economy and The Changing Role of the Federal Government Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University December 2, 2010

  8. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

  9. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2012 % Forecast > > > > > > > 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Global Insight

  10. The Washington Economy

  11. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

  12. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  13. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Oct 09 – Oct 10 (000s) Washington + 43,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  14. Job Change by SectorOct 2009 – Oct 2010Washington MSA Total 43,700 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. Unemployment Rate % 9.5 – DC 9.2 – U.S. 6.3 – SMD 5.9 – MSA 4.8 - NVA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

  16. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

  17. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  18. The Changing Federal Role

  19. 2000 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 14.4 % Other Federal 19.3% Federal 31.3% Procurement 12.0% Local Business 39.5% Int’l 5.0% Hosp. 2.9% Other: Health/Education,Media,Assns Other 6.9%

  20. 2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 11.8 % Other Federal 17.3 % Federal 36.7% Procurement 19.4% Local Business 38.3% Other: Health/Education,Media,Assns Other 6.7% Int’l 4.6% Hosp. 1.9%

  21. Share of Washington Area Economy1970-2008 Northern Virginia Suburban MD % of GRP D.C.

  22. Total Federal Spending Washington Metro Area Billions Current $ Total Procurement Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  23. Federal Spending By Type 1984 - 2009 $ Billions Procurement Wages & Salaries

  24. Federal Procurement Washington Metro Area, 1980 - 2009 $ Billions TOTAL = $794 B |< 80-89 = $84 B > | < 90-99 = $191B > | < 00 – 09 = $519B > |

  25. Job Change by SectorMar 2000 – Mar 2010Washington MSA Total 302,200 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  26. Federal Procurement in The Washington MSA $ Billions Annual Growth: Total = 11.1 %/yr DOD = 12.7 %/yr Total DOD Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Reports

  27. DOD Federal Procurement in MSA Projection of Sec. Gates Proposed Cuts $ Billions • - $9.5 Billion • 66,000 Jobs Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Reports

  28. Change in Federal Employment by Administration

  29. Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s Kennedy – Johnson Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Clinton Obama Eisenhower Bush 1 Bush 2 + 18 + 4 +28 - 6 + 36 + 23 - 42 + 80 - 22

  30. Annual Change in Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s | IKE | K/J |Nixon-Ford | Car | Reagan| B1 | Clinton | Bush 2| Ob.

  31. Projected Federal Job Growth* 2009 - 2012 * Full-time, permanent, non-seasonal

  32. Projected Federal Job Growth* 2009 - 2012 Annual Net New 09-12 6,500 Annual Net New 05-09 5,300 Annual Net New 99-09 3,550 * Full-time, permanent, non-seasonal

  33. Future Job Change by Sector2010 – 2020Washington MSA Total 469,800 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  34. Jan. 14, 2011 POLICY-CRA.GMU.EDU

  35. Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

  36. The Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Wishes You Happy Holidays! Buone Feste! Felices Fiestas! Mutlu Bayramlar! Jie Ri Yu Kuai! Vesele Praznike! Forhe Feiertage! Tanoshii kurisumasu wo! Joyeuses Fêtes!

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