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Understanding Global Warming Dynamics: Insights and Solutions

Delve into the complexities of global warming, CO2 variations, feedback loops, and scientific data to comprehend climatic shifts. Explore the role of CO2 in climate change and potential ramifications. Unravel the link between CO2 buildup and rising temperatures, ponder on future scenarios, and examine hurricanes as a diagnostic tool for climate change. This enlightening resource offers a comprehensive overview of critical climate issues and their implications. Discover the intricate relationship between CO2 levels, temperature changes, and atmospheric dynamics.

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Understanding Global Warming Dynamics: Insights and Solutions

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Global Warming Continued Some final clarifying thoughts

  2. Time Resolution Problem • http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/571_Lecture_3_Ice_Core_Note.pdf (a good source) • Ice at depth is under lots of pressure and the annual layers all blend together; time resolution is therefore a function of depth • At depth, ice flows and shears so depth is not monotonically related to time

  3. The Lag Problem • What comes first, CO2 change or temperature change; evidence is limited by time resolution problem at depth (800-1200 years)

  4. Role of CO2 Variations • Does it trigger or regulate climate change? • Scientific data exists to equally support both claims • What does seem clear is that lower CO2 does lead to cooling but its easier for atmosphere to cool than warm and this is a strongly non-linear process that we do not scientifically fully understand.

  5. Most Importantly • There is no past climate record available to us with high time resolution (e.g. annual) that shows the climate when the CO2 level was 370 ppm.

  6. Possible Feedback Amplification • CO2 rises; lower atmosphere warms slightly  increased humidity at tropical latitudes  increased warming; This is the water vapor feedback loop (current situation) • Further CO2 buildup will then activate the phase lagged CO2 temperature response further elevating temperatures. • Effect is largest at high latitudes where most of the methane is stored in permafrost leading to methane amplified global warming. • This feedback scenario would operate over a timescale of about 200 years.

  7. Bottom Scientific Line • CO2 build up is real and increasing due to rising economies in India and China • No scientific link or theory is available to predict annualchanges in global temperature or sea surface temperature as a function of annual increase in CO2  we only know this relation on coarser timescales • We are probably in the more benign water vapor feedback loop now and therefore it will eventually (soon?) get much worse much faster

  8. Hurricanes as a Diagnostic? • Central pressure  directly related to SST • Duration indirectly related to SST • Frequency  not related to SST • Wind radius  non-linearly related to SST • Total Power estimate  best diagnostic but extremely difficult to measure

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