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NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues

NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues. When we review policy issues we ask: How will this policy issue affect economic growth and jobs? How will this policy issue affect the budget deficit, both now and in the future?

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NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues

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  1. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues • When we review policy issues we ask: • How will this policy issue affect economic growth and jobs? • How will this policy issue affect the budget deficit, both now and in the future? • We have spent a lot of time examining economic and jobs growth and budget issues at the national level • We started looking at the Illinois budget more in 2015 • So how is the U.S. economy doing? • How are we doing with the federal budget deficit?

  2. Fiscal and Economic Issues Discussion Group January 2017 Meeting NWSOFA Introductions of Presenters and Participants

  3. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesNWSOFA Resources http://www.nwsofa.org/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/nws4obama/ https://www.facebook.com/nwsofa/?fref=ts https://connect.barackobama.com/groups/181/ NWSOFA https://connect.barackobama.com/groups/41/ Economic Opportunity https://my.barackobama.com/page/event/search_simple?source=events-redirect To find our next meeting https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I16PAS0r42RAJXF4JH-Q0XLto-gsCLRwMl15ulYFGIs/edit?usp=sharing Analyses of presidential candidates’ policy proposals

  4. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesHow people view the direction of their personal situation 87% in Jan 2017

  5. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesPerception on Direction of the Country is not good

  6. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesWhy it isn’t full recovery yet, i.e. the U-6 Unemployment RateHistorical Range (1994-2007) vs. December 2016 Level February 2017 = 9.2%, i.e. still slack in the labor market

  7. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesWhy it isn’t full recovery yet, i.e. the U-6 Unemployment Rate

  8. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesThe graphs we usually see from the White House (and OFA). Is the country going in the right direction? Most people can’t tell from these graphs. January 2017 = +238,000 jobs; February 2017 = + 235,000 jobs

  9. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesThe graphs we should see – GDP trending up for 7.5 years, jobs for over 6.75 yearsIs the economy going in the right direction? Yes !!

  10. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesThe Federal Budget Deficit – The issue is increasing deficits in future years https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52370-outlook.pdf

  11. https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52370-outlook.pdfhttps://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52370-outlook.pdf

  12. Fiscal Year 2016 Budget Results

  13. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesFiscal Year Totals(billions of dollars)Bush Budget Years    |           Obama Budget Years            

  14. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesJob Growth in Illinois

  15. At the state level, Illinois’ spending is not high http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/per-capita-state-spending/?currentTimeframe=0&selectedDistributions=per-capita-state-spending Notes Data are for state fiscal year 2015 and include general fund, federal funds, other state funds, and bonds. Sources KCMU calculations based on adjusted data collected in the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) State Expenditure Report: Examining Fiscal 2014-2016 State Spending, November 2016; and the U.S. Census Bureau Resident Population Data, 2015.

  16. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesIllinois’ Alleged Spending Spree with the Higher Income Tax Rates

  17. Illinois SpendingHigh Spending is at the Local Level http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/state_spending_2015ILbn

  18. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesThe 5th most regressive state and local tax structure in the country

  19. Governor’s Plan vs. Civic Federation Plan

  20. Illinois Policy Institute Recommendations

  21. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues 2014 job growth was +87,200. 2015 job growth was +81,600. 2016 job growth was +18,900.

  22. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic IssuesThe IL economy that Rauner wanted to “turnaround” In 2014, the year before Governor Rauner took office, Illinois added 87,200 jobs per the Establishment survey, unemployment declined by 2.1% and employment increased by 94,701 per the Household Survey. The job gains were the 2nd best year since 1998, trailing only 2012. The employment gains were the best since 2006.For 2015 under Governor Rauner jobs were up 81,600, unemployment is up 0.1% and employment is up 48,203. In 2016 jobs were up 18,900, unemployment declined by 0.4% and employment increased by 45,004.So Governor Rauner is accomplishing a “turnaround”—a negative “turnaround”Our last real (negative) turnaround governor was George Ryan (Jan 1999 - Jan 2003) who presided over a 110,532 person decline in the labor force, a 252,273 person decline in employment, and a loss of 86,400 jobs in the Establishment survey. (Dec 1998 - Dec 2002)By contrast under Blagojevich and Quinn we increased the labor force by 221,523, increased employment by 234,954, and increased jobs by 46,100. (Dec 2002 - Dec 2014)

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