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Jack is currently performing travel demand model forecasting for Florida’s Turnpike. Specifically he works on toll road project forecasting to produce traffic and revenue estimates which are in turn utilized by Turnpike’s finance department to conclude feasibility of a proposed project. Project levels range from a basic feasibility analysis to an investment grade level study.
Analysis Tool for Model Output to Evaluate Express Toll Lanes Feasibility Jack Klodzinski, PhDFlorida’s Turnpike Enterprise Tom Adler, PhD Resource Systems Group, Inc. William T. Olsen, PE, PhD Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise
Introduction • Regional models used for producing travel demand forecasts • Interpretation of traffic volume estimates • Daily Vs. Time of Day • Estimating toll rates and traffic for a proposed toll facility • By section • By hour
Methodology INPUT:Run Travel Demand Network Model to Produce Estimated Corridor Volumes INPUT:Hourly Traffic & Distribution, Facility Geometry, Max/Min Toll Rates. OUTPUT:Estimated Hourly Traffic and Toll Rates ELTOD Spreadsheet Application
Development • Estimate of split between General Use (GU) & Toll lanes using a supply/demand equilibrium process • Supply: Akcelik curves for travel time estimates • Demand: Toll Choice Model
Volume/Delay Curves The Akcelik curve has been found to better represent traffic in corridors with over capacity conditions.
Development • Hourly toll rates by V/C ratio & specified limits • Determined by a power curve, exponent (input parameter), and travel times • Limits are pre-determined minimum & maximum rates • Easily modified to represent alternative dynamic tolling policies
Example of Pricing Policy Curves These curves are defined by the selected EXP value. Revenue Potential increases Traffic Volume Served Increases Parameters with min/max toll rates with selected EXP values and LOS E limit
Development: Primary Input • Total daily traffic, hourly distribution (by direction), geometry of facility • Geometry includes: section lengths, free flow speed, lane capacity, PCE factor, # of lanes (GU & Toll), max/min toll rates • Secondary Input are scale factors • Spreadsheet format with calculations between supply & demand done iteratively to achieve user equilibrium
Example of Hourly Distribution by Roadway Segment and Direction These curves represent a section of I-75 for one direction. Plot shows ADT for 24 hourly intervals for each count station on a portion of the Interstate 75 corridor.
Application Florida District 1: Lee & Collier County Express Lanes on Interstate 75
Lee/Collier County Networks To Tampa Toll Collection Location Successful Application! I-75 Corridor Gulf of Mexico To Miami
Application: Input Toll Choice Model Pricing Curve Values V/C and Other Values
Application: Input O-D Table from Demand Model
Application: Hourly Output by Section • Traffic Volumes (also by time period) • V/C Ratios • Toll Rates & Projected Revenue • Travel Times • Link Speeds • Cost per Trip Summary • Results Display (network layout) • Model Run Summary
Application: Sample Output - XL Peak Periods of Hourly Volume and toll rates. Hourly Volume and toll rates, by section & direction
Application: Sample Output - XL NORTHBOUND VOLUME Graphical Representation of Hourly Volume and toll rates, by section
Sample Network Display of Results Local Streets Slip Ramps General Use Lanes Express Toll Lanes
Example of a Potential Project Complete Network Model Runs Needed 21 INITIAL MODEL RUNS 3 YEARS 7 ALTERNATIVES
Example of a Potential Project Model Runs Needed to Estimate an Optimal Toll Rate for OneAlternative NETWORK MODELING (4 periods) SPREADSHEET MODELING (24 hour periods) OR 1 YEAR 9 SECTIONS 1 YEAR 9 SECTIONS 117 MODEL RUNS 1 MODEL RUN 13 TOLL RATES …and this doesn’t consider the pricing policy available in the ELTOD!
Express Lanes Time of Day (ELTOD) Model Future Enhancements • Validation Update • Expanded O/D matrix input • Toll Choice Model update • Additional parameter control • Peak Spreading • Feedback loop with network model • Reporting options • Additional output data
Thank You Jack.Klodzinski@dot.state.fl.us TRB CD Paper # 10-2397 Turnpike’s Northern Coin System