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Ocean variability to ecosystem links in the Northern California Current. The PDO and salmon survival correlate in the NCC. Slide: W.T. Peterson. Copepod species composition shifts seasonally with interannual anomalies:. Hooff and Peterson 2006. Oregon “Copepod Community Index” = CCI

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slide1

Ocean variability to ecosystem

links in the Northern California Current

slide2

The PDO and

salmon survival correlate in the NCC

Slide: W.T. Peterson

slide3

Copepod species composition shifts seasonally with interannual anomalies:

Hooff and Peterson 2006

slide4

Oregon “Copepod Community Index” = CCI

Ordination Axis 1 scores

PC1 of copepods

2

1

CCI Timeseries

0

CCI score

-1

2

Warm

Cold

Cold

Warm

-2

1

Monthly anomalies

0

2000

2000

1996

1996

2002

2002

2006

2006

2008

2008

2004

2004

1998

1998

CCI score

-1

-2

PDO:CCI correlation R = 0.5, p<0.01

slide6

Vancouver Island

Anomalies in zooplankton species groups show coherence along the Pacific US coast:

Central Oregon

Central California

Southern California

slide7

Synchrony among North East Pacific time series

(Mackas and Beaugrand 2010)

Arrows indicate timing of major shifts within each region

CalCOFI stratification from McGowan et al. 2003

BC/OR (British Columbia/Oregon) from Mackas et al. 2004

CA (California) from Rebstock (2002) and Lavaniegos & Ohman (2003)

Kuroshio region (KUR) from Nakata & Hidaka (2003)

KOR (Korean coastal water) from Rebstock & Kang (2003

slide8

6

5

6

5

6

0

6

0

5

5

5

5

5

0

5

0

4

5

4

5

4

0

4

0

3

5

3

5

3

0

3

0

2

5

2

5

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

110

170

160

150

140

130

120

Climate-Forcing Hypothesis:

Basin-scale circulation links the PDO to local ecosystem change.

PDO - Cold Phase

PDO - Warm Phase

Strub, modification of

Cheltonand Davis, 1982

slide9

Basin-scale control of ecosystems?

E. Di Lorenzo

J. Keister

A. Thomas

PT Strub

WT Peterson

S. Bograd

P. Franks

F. Schwing

K. Chaak

A. Bracco

International collaborators:

Japanese: (Chiba, Sasai, Sagaki, Tagushi, Ishidi, Nonaha),

Chilean: (Escribano, Hormazabal, Pizarro, Rutllait, Montecino); Canadian (Mackas, Foreman, Pena, Crawford)

slide10

The test of the transport hypothesis

Compare modeled transport to zoop. observations

  • Nested ROMS model http://www.myroms.org/)
    • 10 km resolution
    • 30 vertical layers
    • boundary conditions from World Ocean Atlas climatology
    • nudged at open boundaries
    • forced by NCEP winds and SST
    • 1950-2008
  • Passive tracers released continuously along the 4 regional domain boundaries (NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST) with 12-month decay scales.
  • Time series integrated over 1x2 degree region centered on zooplankton observations.
slide11

Passive tracers capture the seasonality in advection:

Winter Spring Summer Fall

East

West

South

North

particle concentration

slide12

Passive Tracer Time Series

4

From

NORTH

3

2

1

0

-1

Model hindcast CCI =

NORTH tracer

+

SOUTH tracer

+

EAST tracer

+

WEST tracer

+ ε

From

WEST

3

2

1

0

-1

From

EAST

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

From

SOUTH

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

Keister et al. 2011

slide13

Advective control of zooplankton communities?

R = 0.36

Model hindcast CCI

Observed CCI

R = 0.95

Model hindcast CCI

Observed CCI

(5 year

lowpass)

R = 0.9

Model hindcast CCI

Model PDO

1998

2000

2002

2002

2004

2004

2006

2006

2008

2008

1998

2000

(5 year

lowpass)

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Keister et al. 2011

1 diapause transport in the ccs
1. Diapause transport in the CCS

Data re-analysis

  • Divided Northeast Pacific into 6 ‘natural’ regions
  • Investigated patterns of retention and export between these regions

Gulf of Alaska

British Columbia Coast

Washington Coast

Oregon Coast

Northern California Coast

California Coast

1 diapause transport in the ccs1
1. Diapause transport in the CCS

Connectivity Plot for All Diapausing Copepods, 1996-2007

Diapause Emergence Latitude

Seed Latitude

1 diapause transport in the ccs2
1. Diapause transport in the CCS

Connectivity Plot for Particles left year round at 10m depth, 1996-2007

Diapause Emergence Latitude

Seed Latitude