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Climate Change Goals for the Metropolitan Washington Area

Climate Change Goals for the Metropolitan Washington Area. Climate Change Steering Committee February 27, 2008 Joan Rohlfs, MWCOG/DEP. Regional Goals & Ways to Get There. Propose Short-Term Goal (2012) Low Hanging Fruit Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below 2005 Actions to Reach Goal

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Climate Change Goals for the Metropolitan Washington Area

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  1. Climate Change Goals for the Metropolitan Washington Area Climate Change Steering Committee February 27, 2008 Joan Rohlfs, MWCOG/DEP

  2. Regional Goals & Ways to Get There • Propose Short-Term Goal (2012) • Low Hanging Fruit • Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below 2005 • Actions to Reach Goal • Adoption of Long Term Goals (2050) • Policies to Reach Goal

  3. Regional Short Term Goal: 2012

  4. Long Term and Short Term Goals • Long Term Goals Needed to Stabilize Climate • Spur investment in new technology • Incentive for technological innovation • Short Term Goalsto Insure Immediate Progress • Analyze strategies using existing technology • Nearer term year is easier to comprehend, anticipate

  5. Local Government Short Term Goals • Cool Counties agreement : Stop emissions growth in 2010 • Mayors’ Agreement: Reduce 7% below 1990 by 2012

  6. Proposed Short Term Goal: 2012 • Proposed goal: Reduce 7% by 2012 • 2005-2012 Emissions expected to increase by 7% • Achievement of 7% reduction goal by 2012 would return regional emissions to 2005 levels

  7. Low Hanging Fruit

  8. Individual Actions • Individuals contribute an estimated 7 tons CO2e per year • Residential energy use (37%) • Appliance use, AC and heating • Transportation (63%) • Personal car use, mass transit, air travel Source: M. Vandenbergh, “Carbon Neutral Individual,” 2007

  9. Individual Contribution to GHG Emissions

  10. Individual GHG Emissions • Individuals contribute about 1/3 of CO2 emissions in the U.S. • Individuals can play an important role in achieving short and long term targets • Some behaviors can be modified to generate large emission reductions (“low hanging fruit”)

  11. Buy more efficient car Carpool w/ 2 others Cut shopping trips in ½ Alter driving habits Get frequent tune-ups Maintain tire pressure Subtotal: 20% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 31% Transportation Reduction

  12. Weatherize house Install efficient HVAC Reduce inside temp to 68o Install efficient water heater, reduce by 20o Install efficient appliances Change bulbs to CFL 10% 8% 4% 3% 2.5% 1.0% Household Energy Reduction Reduction SUBTOTAL: 28.5%

  13. Impact of 60% Reduction in Consumer Emissions by 2012 /

  14. 60% Reductions from Consumers • Assumes 2012 BAU emissions • 33 percent are consumers • Consumers can reduce by 60% • BAU is 82.3 million MT • Reductions would be 16.3 million MT • Equivalent to about 20 percent from overall BAU.

  15. Midterm Goal: 2020How to get there…

  16. Example: Transportation Scenario for 2020 • Transportation Emissions • 2005 to 2020 Increase 24.6% • Reduction Goal: Reduce: 20% below 2005 • Reduction Measures • CAFÉ Standards Reduce 20.0% • 55 mpg by 2020 Reduce 5.1% • VMT limit (?)

  17. Measures to Reduce Regional GHG % Assumption Measure

  18. How to Get 20 % Reduction by 2020

  19. Long Term Goal: 2050

  20. IPCC Stabilization Scenario- 2050 • IPCC recommends reduction in global CO2 emissions in 2050 of 50-85% (of 2000 emissions • Stabilization defined as CO2-eq concentration at 445-490 ppm, • Global mean temperature increase kept at 2.0-2.4o C

  21. Proposed Long Term Regional GHG Reduction Goal • Based on science in IPCC Report and consistent with the Warner Lieberman bill’s reduction goals 70% below 2005 by 2050

  22. Regional Greenhouse Emissions (2005) Source: MWCOG estimates.

  23. Estimated Washington Region CO2 Emissions, 2005-2030 (Business As Usual) MWCOG Dept. of Environmental Programs, Sept. 2007

  24. List of Actual and Potential Government Programs to Reduce GHG Emissions • Federal Measures • Energy Bill of 2007 (CAFÉ standards, EEE) • Energy Efficient appliance standards • Establish price and trading for carbon emissions • Limit CO2 emissions from power plants, motor vehicles • Invest in Renewable energy technology (solar, wind, hydro) • Support nuclear energy research • State Measures: • CAL LEV limits on mobile CO2 emissions • RGGI • Renewable Porfolio Standards (RE as % of Energy Efficiency goals) • Require GHG emissions analysis as part of Environmental Impact analyses • Local • Purchase of alternative/renewable energy • Increase tree canopy • LED traffic lights • Incentives to build to LEED standards (green buildings) • Education and Outreach Federal State Local

  25. Recommendations • Adopt Regional Climate Change Goals: • 2012 Reduce GHG emissions by 7% • 2020 Reduce GHG emissions by 20% below 2005 • 2050 Reduce GHG emission by 70% below 2005

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