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Read more about Economic Survey 2018 crucial findings, projections: Mixing caution & optimism on Business Standard. Economic Survey 2018 seeking to improve Indian economy. Pegging GDP growth for FY19 at 7-7.5%. Know more about Economic survey 2017-18 or Budget session of Parliament.
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projections: Mixing caution & optimism
From GDP growth estimates to climate change, Business Standard brings you
all the key points raised in the Economic Survey 2018
Cautious, optimistic, or both? Either way, the Economic Survey 2018 has been described
as "a must-read for all seeking to improve their understanding of the Indian
economy". Pegging GDP growth for FY19 at 7-7.5 per cent, the survey also flagged
various hurdles the economy and its sectors would face, including the threat from rising
oil prices and climate change.
Budget 2018 : For the "first time in India's history", as stated by the survey, state-wise
data on international exports was dwelt upon in the document. The data indicate a
strong correlation between export performance and the standard of living in states.
Further, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian said in the Economic Survey,
presented in Parliament on Monday, that the government cannot rule out a pause in its
fiscal consolidation plan in the coming financial year.
Other issues, such as the health of Indian markets, the impact of oil prices on growth,
climate change, and the impact of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and other reforms,
etc, were also discussed in the survey.
Here are the key details the survey presented:
1) Optimistic about growth
Writing for the Business Standard, Mihir S Sharma says that Subramanian struck
an optimistic note about economic growth going forward. The survey said that in
the second half of the financial year, there were "robust signs of growth". It predicted
that growth for the full 2017-18 financial year would be higher than the Central Statistics
Office's prediction of 6.5 per cent at 6.75 per cent year on year. Further, it projected that
growth in FY19 would be between 7-7.5 per cent, having received a boost from the fading
of the disruption caused by demonetisation, a recovery in global demand, and select
domestic policy actions. If the survey is accurate, India will reclaim the tag of the fastest-
growing large economy in the world.
However, Sharma writes that the survey has gone with an optimistic view of growth,
based on certain aspects of its analysis of the ongoing financial year. The survey noted
the "higher than expected" fiscal deficits, current account deficit, and inflation in 2017-
18. It added that the manufacturing sector continued to struggle, with the ratio of
factory exports to GDP and the manufacturing trade balance declining. The survey also
noted that the agriculture sector has not witnessed an increase in real value added for
the past four years.