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DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting: Perspectives, Challenges, and Opportunities --2 nd International Conference on Volcano and Ash Forecasting. Mr. Alan R. Shaffer June 21, 2004 Director, Plans & Programs Office Defense Research and Engineering.

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DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting:

Perspectives, Challenges, and Opportunities

--2nd International Conference on Volcano and Ash Forecasting

Mr. Alan R. Shaffer

June 21, 2004

Director, Plans & Programs Office

Defense Research and Engineering

operational support system
Air Force Weather Agency serves as DoD focal point for global volcanic ash cloud forecasts; 24/7 global coverage

Text Bulletins

Satellite Analysis

Graphical Forecast Products

Takes Advantage of Advanced MetSat Applications at Air Force Weather Agency

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Data Process and Handling Center

Forecast based on ”PUFF” Model

PUFF is Advective Model using Point Source and Gridded Wind Fields

Military Model can be run with higher resolution (45km grid vice 191-km)

Navy Centers also issue tailored ash forecasts; e.g. NEMOC issues routine Mt. Etna forecasts for Sigoniela, Italy

Ash Forecast Driver Different for DoD compared to Commercial

Mission vice Economic Drivers

Operational Support System

For Official Use Only

operational support system air force weather agency
Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency--
  • AFWA Issues Graphic Problems as Required—example at right is the forecast for Tungurahua in Ecuador (June 17, 2004)
  • Includes flight level, ash density
  • Products updated daily—or more often if serious event occurs
  • Also issue an animation product for forecast evolution over time

For Official Use Only

operational support system air force weather agency1
Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency--

18 June 0300Z

18 June 0600Z

  • Expansion of panels for Tunguruhura, in Ecuador (June 17, 2004)
  • Panel shows +3, +6 hour forecast over a altitude width
  • For specialized missions, it is possible to provide high resolution tailored forecasts

For Official Use Only

national weather service product vaftad
National Weather Service Product--VAFTAD--
  • Basis is the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD)
  • Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS model
  • VAFTAD is advection / diffusion model
    • 191 Km AVN fields
    • Navy developing 45 km version using NOGAPS Sky-high model

For Official Use Only

operational dod text bulletincs
Operational DoD Text Bulletincs
  • Issued by AGFWA

WEATHER BULLETINS

FVAW1 KGWC 180000 GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION SUMMARY BULLETIN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS PAST 24 HOURS

1. EUROPE, AFRICA, AND ICELAND (A) NONE. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE CURRENT FVAF LFPW BULLETIN—

2. AMERICAS (CANADA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH AMERICA) (A)VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-08 LOCATION: 1.46S 78.44W AREA: ECUADOR SUMMIT ELEVATION: 16480 FT (5023 M)) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 17/1745Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH/STEAM TO FL230 MOVG WEST AT 15-20 KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVXX KWBC BULLETIN—

3. NORTH PACIFIC (ALASKA, KAMCHATKA, JAPAN, PHILIPPINES) (A)VOLCANO: KARYMSKY 1000-13 LOCATION: 54.05N 159.43E AREA: KAMCHATKA SUMMIT ELEVATION: 4874 FT (1486 M) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION REPORTED AT 17/2223Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH TO FL090 MVG EAST AT 15-20KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVFE RJTD BULLETIN–

4. SOUTH PACIFIC (AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, INDONESIA) (A) NONE. FOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PUFF MODEL FORECASTS BASED ON GFS DATA SEE: HTTPS ://WEATHER.AFWA.AF.MIL/ENVIRONMENTAL(UNDERSCORE)EVENTS.HTML (LOWER-CASE ONLY). PREPARED BY MARTINEZ

Created: 01:48:59 Z on Fri 18 Jun 2004.

For Official Use Only

current state of supporting research
Air Force

Air Force Does in-house development of products and graphics by Satellite Applications Branch

Has supported the development of PUFF, with the University of Alaska Geophysics Institute

AF Funded efforts included:

Creating the ability to ingest (high resolution) AFWA forecast model fields

Developing graphical user interface

Further Development not funded

Navy: Ingestion of NOGAPS Sky Hi (45km) fields into PUFF

Army: Jointly funded early University Partnering for Operational Support

Other Applicable Research

Sensing

DoD spending ~$300M/year in advanced sensors and applicatrions, including advanced IR resolution and uncooled IR focal planes, as well as multispectral and hyperspectral sensors

DoD again funding (minimally) seismology research

Propulsion: DoD investing ~ $125M / year in Integrated High-Performance Turbine Engine Research; including advanced componsites and metals

Current State of Supporting Research

For Official Use Only

puff characteristics
PUFF is used by Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, Air Fore Weather Agency and University of Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Center

Deficiencies:

Detection

Sensing initial ash eruption density

Characterizing ash cloud density and distribution

Plume Transport

Characterizing upper level variability in wind field

Integrating model with high resolution winds

Future proposed research includes real time graphical user interface

PUFF Characteristics

For Official Use Only

research opportunities
Apply other DoD tools to Volcanic Ash model

High Resolution Terrain Data: Worldwide terrain / topographic data available at 100m post spacing—many areas 3 to 5 meters

Novel Sensors:

Multi and Hyperspectral, Long Wave IR

DoD experimenting with Hyperspectral high resolution—

Question: Are there unique spectral characteristics in volcanic ash cloud?

How does Met Community Leverage other opportunities?

Navy SPY-1 Radar became solid weather radar for Navy Aegis Cruiser

Use of multiple sensors

Research Opportunities

For Official Use Only

possible application hyperspectral imagery adaptive spectral reconnaissance program
Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--

Target

Airborne Platform

  • Hyperspectral Sensor
  • 140-300 bands
  • 1m Scale Spatial Res
  • RealTime Processor
  • Detects Targets
  • Cues EO/TIR Imagery
  • High Spatial Res
  • EO/TIR Camera
  • NIIRS 7.5/6.5

Target

Target

RGB from HS datacube

  • Hyperspectral detection of camouflaged and concealed mobile tactical vehicles
  • Algorithm-based detection processing
  • Detection-cued high resolution imagery

Actual Image Pending Security Review

Output from SEM

detection algorithm

Cued High-Resolution Image Chip

slide11

Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--

Ground Truth Testing Regions

Training Classes

Water

Surf

Grass

Shrub

Dry

sand

Wet

sand

Compact

Sand

Algorithm Performance Comparison

Littoral Radiance II

Camp Pendleton CA, June 14, 1997

Classification Map

Confusion Matrix (SAM)

hypersonic sensors
Hypersonic Sensors

Goes 12

For Official Use Only

research questions
Research Questions

Goes 12

For Official Use Only

operational support system navy forecast philosophy
Operational Support System--Navy Forecast Philosophy--
  • Navy Research Lab is investigating: Improvement in the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD) and PUFF
  • Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS model
  • Again, Looking at higher resolution models

For Official Use Only