SCO IRAN: Iranian Security Dream Abbas Maleki - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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SCO IRAN: Iranian Security Dream Abbas Maleki

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    1. SCO & IRAN: Iranian Security Dream Abbas Maleki

    2. SCO and its successes War against Terrorism Ethnic Violence Narcotics Border Conflicts Challenges to unipolar system

    3. SCO and its failures Disability on playing world class role Lack of consensus on political development Strengthening of authoritarian regimes Expansion of radicalism, separatism

    4. What is Irans goal to join SCO? Islamic Revolutions perception on convergent activities Strengthening Irans geopolitical role Looking to the East Reduce US treats against Iran More economic ties with Russia, China and India Integrated Energy Market in Asia

    5. Islamic Revolutions perception on convergent activities Mahdaviat: Doctrine of Hope in Shiia, United World Order in Future The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes clear Irans preferences in foreign policy. (1) Irans neighbours; (2) Muslim countries; (3) Third World countries; (4) countries that furnish political, economic, social and/or military needs of Iran.

    6. Islamic Revolutions perception on convergent activities (2) In search of ways to expand its interests, Tehran looked towards cooperation with neighbors, with other nearby and Muslim states Iran became a major player in regional and International organizations as ECO OIC OPEC SCO D8

    7. Iran and Initiated Regional Organization Persian States Countries: Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan Caspian Cooperation Organization: Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan Shia Nations Rim: 1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain 2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Afghanistan

    8. Strengthening Irans geopolitical role Irans Subregions: Middle East Persian Gulf South West Asia Central Asia, Caucasus, and Afghanistan Caspian Basin

    9. Middle East Sub Region

    10. Asian Identity

    11. Irans advantages Irans geographical position, culture Political hierarchy Economic stature Military muscle give it the potential to play a leading or pivotal role in a number of regional configurations: -Persian Gulf -Central Asia -Caspian Basin

    12. What can Iran do? Critical tools: Dialogue with other nations Economic and technological advancement; Regional positioning; Irans response in foreign relations has mainly focused on 3 levels; Consolidating Irans regional position and relations In Middle East Deepening the relations with the European Union as a leverage against potential future US domination in the region; Seeking a new strategic relationship with Asian Countries

    13. Looking to the East Iran has 1% of the worlds population, 7% of the worlds natural reserves including -10% of the global proven oil reserves -16% of the worlds natural gas resources. 130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons) 27 trillion cm gas which means $3000 billions

    17. Irans Neighbors in the day of event US full control: -Afghanistan -Azerbaijan -Qatar -Bahrain Russian group: -Russia -Turkmenistan -Armenia US semi control: -Iraq -Saudi Arabia -Kuwait -UAE -Oman -Pakistan -Turkey -Kazakhstan

    18. US Pressures Iran was using the game of showing to shift from one super power to another during bipolar system US did not desire to see Iran as Iranistan After US-Iraq war in 1991 and collapse of Soviet Union in 1992, US shifted its policy against Iran: Dual Containment ILSA Rogue States Axis of evils Nuclear Pariah UNSC Sanctions

    19. Can SCO help Iran to manage its challenges? Conceptual Challenges in Irans Foreign Relations: Iran-US Relations Iran-EU Relations Oil price Treaty of Friendship between Iran and Iraq (1975) Irans share of Hirmand River 3 Iranian Islands in Persian Gulf Caspian legal regime

    20. Iranian Allies in US-Iran Context China Economic not political relations; not bought and paid for As a mater of general policy, opposes sanctions, but Believes Iran should not push the issue Russia Opportunism Iranian mistrust

    21. SCO and Lonely Iran Iran is a unique state in this region with Strategic Loneliness. This fact is encouraging Iran to think how would be more secure in individual manner.

    22. SCO and Middle East security No common understanding or framework of security, divergent interests US strategic presence in Asia and its impact: - Historically polarising - US military umbrella for GCC - From indirect to direct hegemony - Containment (encirclement) of Iran

    23. Potential future Scenarios, Can SCO support Iran? Iraq instability continues US-Iran confrontation escalates into conflict Unpredicted radical change in a GCC state US withdraws from Iraq: Civil war erupts, violence spreads in the region, or International community steps in to help stabilise Iraq

    24. Thank you maleki@caspianstudies.com

    25. Four Iran Historic Compromises with its Neighbors Iran-Soviet Russia Friendship Treaty, 1921 Iran-UK MOU on situation of Abu Musa Island in Persian Gulf, 1971 Iran-Iraq Treaty on Friendship and Governmental Borders, 1975 Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on the portion of Hirmand Waters, 1976

    27. Irans Regional Foreign Policy Regional Challenge: Caspian Sea Legal Regime Persian Gulf States Iraq Afghanistan Historical Compromise: Iran-Soviet Russia Friendship Treaty, 1921 Iran-UK MOU on situation of Abu Musa Island in Persian Gulf, 1971 Iran-Iraq Treaty on Friendship and Governmental Borders, 1975 Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on the portion of Hirmand Waters, 1976