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Synthetic Environment for Analysis

Ability to conduct Joint Military Campaigns integrating all elements of national ... PMESII: political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure ...

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Synthetic Environment for Analysis

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    Slide 1:Synthetic Environment for Analysis and Simulation (SEAS)

    Mark Prevette SEAS Contractor Operational Lead J9, Experiment Support Department, Analyst Division SYColeman Daniel Snyder SEAS Contractor Technical Lead J9, Experiment Engineering Department, M&S Division Booz I Allen I Hamilton

    Slide 2:Outline

    The SEAS Model Traits Goals Sensors Actions Behaviors Synthetic Environment Relationship to J9 Concepts SEAS Functionality Using SEAS Inputs Outputs

    Slide 3:About SEAS

    Slide 4:SEAS Agent Constructs

    Traits Goals Sensors Actions Behaviors Provide the formalism to develop reusable modular computational models

    Slide 5:Traits

    Traits capture the characteristics of an agent. E.g.: Demographics (ethnicity, gender) Behavioral (aggressiveness) Physiological (height, immunity to certain virus) Traits realize diversity in agent populations

    Slide 6:Goals

    Goals describe the behavioral motivation of an agent An agent can have multiple hierarchical goals An agent might have different courses of action to accomplish a goal

    Slide 7:Sensors

    Sensors represent the probes through which an agent retrieves information from the rest of the synthetic world Sensors are categorized into: Messages Actions Environment

    Slide 8:Actions

    Actions represent the interactions of one agent with a synthetic world Actions can be directed against: Self Another agent A group of agents Non-human entities (eg. Infrastructure) Conceptual targets (eg. Economy)

    Slide 9:Behaviors

    Logic defines the behavior of the agent Behavior determines the decision that an agent make Different traits might produce different behavior, ensuring a wide spectrum of decisions in a diverse community of agents

    The 7 Behavior Primitives Atomic Task Initiate Decide Execute Update Terminate Each atomic task consists of 7 possible behavior primitives. Initiate and Terminate are required actions. Search, Decide, Execute, Communicate and Update are optional. However there must be at least one optional action in a workflow entity. Search Communicate

    Slide 11:Emergent Behavior

    Emergent behavior is the behavior exhibited by a system that is not explicitly coded in its parts, e.g.: Birds flying in a formation Sands forming a dune

    Slide 12:Agent within a Synthetic Environment

    AGENT ENVIRONMENT Intelligence Emotions Social Group/Organization Behavior Mobility Sensors Goals Demographics Traits Susceptibility Intelligence Savings Group I D X S E U C T Financial Life Food Water Person Environ. Shelter Print Electronic Do Nothing Security Basic Communication Exposure Rumor True Infected Immune Well Being Communicate Carrier I S E D X C U nitiate earch valuate ecide E ecute ommunicate erminate Behavior Primitives T pdate Health Liberty Safety Environment Applicable Models Agents can be: Individuals Organizations Institutions

    Must Accommodate Testing New Capabilities Current method: White Cell: Subjective Effects Adjudication Cell input to legacy models Improved method: Use off-line Simulations to Quantify Non-tangible effects as input to JWARS Ability to conduct Joint Military Campaigns integrating all elements of national power (DIME)?

    Slide 13:We needed a method to experiment with the EBO concept. How to measure DImE action effects on the PMESII. Current systems depended heavily on SMEs. In many cases we were unable to get DIE SME to participant. We needed an alternative. In proposing constructive simulation as a key to experimentation, the major concern is whether legacy-attrition-based simulations can support our new concepts.   With a little help, JWARS should be able to address complex effects based operations, for example. We needed a method to experiment with the EBO concept. How to measure DImE action effects on the PMESII. Current systems depended heavily on SMEs. In many cases we were unable to get DIE SME to participant. We needed an alternative. In proposing constructive simulation as a key to experimentation, the major concern is whether legacy-attrition-based simulations can support our new concepts.   With a little help, JWARS should be able to address complex effects based operations, for example.

    Slide 14:Operational Net Assessment Systems Perspective

    Political Military Economic Social Infrastructure Information Let me start out by talking about the basis of the Operational Net Assessment. The ONA Promotes knowledge base of adversary and ourselves by establishing a system of system analysis of the enemy Integrates national efforts towards objectives Enables precise application of force, at the right time, place, and reason PMESII defined Visual depiction of PMESII Node: a means to exercise adversary’s will Key Node: Node is a component of multiple systems Disproportional results for expended effort Node is vulnerable to attack Linkage of objective, effect, node, action Nodal analysis in the micro sense criticismsLet me start out by talking about the basis of the Operational Net Assessment. The ONA Promotes knowledge base of adversary and ourselves by establishing a system of system analysis of the enemy Integrates national efforts towards objectives Enables precise application of force, at the right time, place, and reason PMESII defined Visual depiction of PMESII Node: a means to exercise adversary’s will Key Node: Node is a component of multiple systems Disproportional results for expended effort Node is vulnerable to attack Linkage of objective, effect, node, action Nodal analysis in the micro sense criticisms

    Slide 15:An Effects-Based Operations Approach

    Objective Destroy Global Terrorist Network(s) Economic (cut off funding) Diplomatic (build & sustain coalition) Military (remove Taliban regime) (destroy terrorist cells) Effects What has to happen to Red to achieve Blue objectives (no longer able to operate as an adaptive network with global reach) Integrated DIME Actions Key Nodes & Vulnerabilities Resources Information (“not a war on Islam” message) Changing the Way We Think … Actions The ONA is crucial to the EBO approach. EBO operations are characterized by: A more complete understanding of Red key nodes, their linkages and vulnerabilities (systems-of systems understanding and analysis) Early identification and integration of key IA & CoE “players” prior to, during crisis development & throughout execution – coordinated, synchronized & integrated Pre targeted, full spectrum assessment Real/near real-time situational understanding Dynamic collaboration with “fighters”, supporters and higher headquarters The ONA is crucial to the EBO approach. EBO operations are characterized by: A more complete understanding of Red key nodes, their linkages and vulnerabilities (systems-of systems understanding and analysis) Early identification and integration of key IA & CoE “players” prior to, during crisis development & throughout execution – coordinated, synchronized & integrated Pre targeted, full spectrum assessment Real/near real-time situational understanding Dynamic collaboration with “fighters”, supporters and higher headquarters

    Effects Based Plan (EBP) Developed by SJFHQ and RCC Staff with JIACG* as advisory element ONA links DIME Actions to relevant PMESII* Nodes to achieve desired Effects Assigns Resources to Actions Operational Net Assessment (ONA) Developed by SJFHQ Includes: Desired Effects potential DIME Actions critical Nodes Execute Operations Conduct Effects Assessment Relationship Between Pol-Mil Plan, EBP/O, ONA & Simulation Tools POL-MIL Plan Developed by NSC-PCC Frames crisis response and identifies end-state Guidance to relevant elements of national power (DIME) to achieve strategic objectives Provides: Strategic Objectives & Policy Aims Crisis *CPG: Coalition Planning Group *JIACG: Joint Inter-Agency Coordination Group *PMESII: political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure Linked:

    Slide 17:SEAS Features

    Slide 18:SEAS Models

    Slide 19:Synthetic International System

    Citizen Make Decisions Stay Flee Affiliation to Factions D I M E actions APMESIIActions PMESII Actions Actions Node PMESII Actions Roads & Bridges Communication Lines Health Services Security Oil & Gas Sea Ports Financial Public Utilities Target Action at Specific Nodes Node Node Node Node Node Node Node Node Node Status/ Operational Level SEAS (agent-based DIME model) Overview

    Slide 21:User Interface: Action Plan

    Planner supports complex course of action construction

    Slide 22:Visualization of Effects

    The level of achievement of each effect is displayed for the past 10 days

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