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Nordbotten and Denmark. Lars Thygesen [email protected] 1960 1966 1964. Nordbotten in Nordic Statistical Meeting Helsingfors Nordbotten in Nordic Chief Statisticians Meeting Copenhagen Ohlsson in Nordic Statistical Meeting Copenhagen. The impact of Nordbotten on statistical thinking in Denmark.

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the impact of nordbotten on statistical thinking in denmark
1960

1966

1964

Nordbotten in Nordic Statistical Meeting Helsingfors

Nordbotten in Nordic Chief Statisticians Meeting Copenhagen

Ohlsson in Nordic Statistical Meeting Copenhagen

The impact of Nordbotten on statistical thinking in Denmark
slide4
Poul Jensen

Aage la Cour

Kjeld Bjerke

Henning Friis

Erling Jørgensen

Axel Holm

slide7
The basic ideas of Nordbotten

– how they were implemented

the notion of a statistical information system
Educa-

tion

Employ-

ment

CPR

Person

id:

Person Number

Inter-

view

Tax

Question-

naire

Social

Health

etc

Dwelling

id:

Address

Enterprise

id:

CBR-No

Cadastre

BDR

CBR

The notion of a Statistical Information System
reuse of data for multiple purposes
Reuse of data for multiple purposes
  • The Sample Archive from 1971 (originally the Mini Population Register)
    • a representative sample of the population from a variety of sources and all kinds of social and population statistics
    • longitudinal
    • aim: trying out different combinations of data, especially for analysis
    • a test bed for new combinations
  • The Law Model from 1980 onwards
    • aim: calculating the effects of contemplated legislation
    • contains micro data on a sample of the population
    • in cooperation with the Ministry of Economic Affairs
    • up and running 24 hours a day, 7 days a week
law model
Law Model

“...and when our expert has coded the proposed law changes into the terminal, we will in a few seconds witness the computer calculating the effects for a typical family - - based on a simulated model population”

consequences of archive method
Consequences of archive method
  • Data collection not linked to use
  • Key purposes are foreseen
  • Almost anything can be made on demand
the filing or archive structure
SumDatabase

Statistical

registers

-

The filing or archive structure

Administrative

registers

Web

XML

Paper

Cleaning

Estimation

Aggregating

Analysis

Metadata

Publishing

StatBank

Denmark

dst.dk

micro data and longitudinal analysis
Micro data and longitudinal analysis

Elsebeth Lynge:

Occupational mortality 1970-75

Researchers’ remote access:

300 institutes

3,000 researchers

400 active projects

2 M€

confidentiality and data protection
Confidentiality and data protection
  • Challenge: Keep public trust
  • data security regulations
    • strict organisational and technical measures
    • limiting internal and external access to data
  • need to know principle
  • 1978 Register Law
slide15
To link

or not to link

- that’s the

question!

The case of Denmark

difficulties in practical implementation
Difficulties in practical implementation
  • Convincing ourselves
    • Champions of traditional statistics
    • University textbooks
    • Strong management commitment
  • Convincing the rest of the world
    • Suspicion
    • Bad experience history, especially WW2
    • Survey is the truth
    • Jørgen Wedebye 1979: “On what grounds can anyone claim that there has ever been one single piece of correct information recorded on a Census form?”
    • International meetings, Eurostat book
difficulties 2
Difficulties #2
  • Confidentiality and access to data
    • The threat of a “Big Brother” society
    • Lawsuit against Statistics Denmark in 1978-81 by five municipalities
  • Data breaks
    • changes in the legislation
    • difficult to assess long-term trend
    • identify events
difficulties 3
Difficulties #3
  • Functional organisation
    • Nordbotten:“Today data for the survey of manufacturing and the wage statistics are collected separately. It will probably in many cases be more efficient to integrate the collection, i.e. collect as much as possible from a respondent when we have made a contact instead of repetitive visits or requests”
    • slow progress
  • Metadata
    • allow user to determine whether the data in the archive could be recombined to create new knowledge, e.g. to confirm or reject certain hypotheses
    • Internal as well as outside users claim this is the most important hindrance
nordbotten 1960
Nordbotten 1960:

“In 1970, there will probably not be any need to collect a census in the traditional way”

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