Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and DevelopmentI risultati dell’Italia nell’indagine OCSE “Education at a Glance” 15 September 2004 Andreas SchleicherHead, Indicators and Analysis Division
OECD’s Objectives • Producing a small but critical mass of policy-oriented indicators ... … that provide truly comparative insight into the functioning, development and impact of learning... … within a framework of agreed standards, established collaboratively by countries … • The idea: • By seeing themselves in the light of other countries’ performance… … countries can identify their own strengths and weaknesses
In the dark, all education systems look the same… But with a little light….
But with a little light…. …important differences become apparent….
I risultati dell’Italia nell’indagine OCSE “Education at a Glance” 1. Where we are today • Continued growth in educational participation… … and its impact for individuals and economies • The financing of education • Student learning conditions and teacher working conditions • The quality of educational outcomes 2. Where we can be • What the best performing countries show can be achieved 3. How we can get there • Policy levers that emerge from international comparisons
More people are completing higher levels of education than ever before… …in some countries, growth has been spectacular… …but others have fallen behind.
Growth in baseline qualificationsApproximated by the percentage of persons with uppersecondary qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years (2002) • In Italy, progress to ensure that all people obtain strong baseline qualifications (at upper secondary level) has been limited • With serious consequences for those who have not completed this level • Only 39% of women without upper secondary education are employed, compared with 61% of those with upper secondary and 79% of those with tertiary education • Women without upper secondary education earn only 84% of upper secondary graduates and little more than half of tertiary graduates 3 1 8 12 22 25 3 11 13 24 26 15 A2.2
Growth in university-level qualificationsApproximated by the percentage of persons with ISCED 5A/6 qualfication in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years (2002) 4 8 19 24 7 26 22 21 A3.2
Current entry rates suggestthat the growth will continueSum of net entry rates for single year of age in tertiary-type A and tertiary-type B education • Today’s entry rates in universities suggest that the strive for higher qualifications will continue… • Half of an age cohort now enter university, and in Australia, Finland, Iceland, Poland and Sweden 70% or more • University-entry in Italy is, at 50%, at the average level … but not everyone completes with a degree • Drop-out in Italy is, at 52%, the highest in the OECD • Drop-out is somewhat lower in the new short university programmes C3.1
Higher tertiary participation is becoming visible in the qualification of the workforcePercentage of 25-64-year-olds with academic or vocational tertiary qualification (10 countries with steepest growth + Italy) A3.4
Education is rapidly becoming and international domain • Foreign enrolment in tertiary education in OECD countries rose by 35% between 1998 and 2002 • Italy saw a rise of 24%, but foreign enrolment is still limited • Only 2.2% of Italian students study abroad (OECD 4.1) Foreign students in tertiary educationby country of study (2002) C3.6
The 1990’s was the decade when women moved ahead of men in terms of educational attainmentPercentage of Tertiary Type-A qualification awarded to women • Italy is strong in women graduation rates • In Italy, the share of women among first degree holders is, at 61%, one of the highest in the OECD • Italy is the only country in which the number of men and women graduating from mathematics and computer science is equal • Gender differences in fields of study at university level are already mirrored in the educational aspirations of 15-year-olds • Career expectations of boys were far more often associated with physics, mathematics or engineering(on average 18% of boys versus 5% of girls) • While girls more frequently expected occupations related to life sciences and health (20% of girls compared to only 7% of boys) Higher proportion of women Higher proportion of men A4.2 OECD average Italy
Why education matters more than ever… Growing educational success pays off.
The earnings advantage of educationRelative earnings of 25-64-year-olds with income from employment (upper secondary education=100) A3.2
Trends in the earnings advantageTrends in relative earnings of 25-64-year-old tertiary graduates (upper secondary=100, countries with 5% or more attainment growth +I) • Growing benefits in many of the countries with the steepest attainment growth • In the countries in which tertiary attainment increased by more than 5 percentage points since 1995 (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Korea, Spain and the UK) most have seen falling unemployment and rising earnings benefits • In Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Ireland and the UK, the earnings benefit increased by between 6 and 14 per centage points between 1997 and 2001 • Among the 15 countries with comparable data, only New Zealand, Norway and Spain have seen a decline in earnings benefits A11.2
The driving forces of GDP per capita growthAverage annual percentage change (1990-2000) • But in almost all countries, the biggest contribution came from increased labour productivity • Ireland, Korea, Mexico and Turkey were the only countries where demography made a significant positive impact on GDP per capita growth… • Increases in employment rates made a big contribution to growth in some countries But where does labour productivity growth come from… …and why does it vary so much across countries? …in others it is beginning to act as a slight drag on growth • While declines in employment rates reduced growth in others A12
Enhancements in human capital contribute to labour productivity growthAverage annual percentage change (1990-2000) A12
In many countries, the expansion was accompanied by massive financial investments …while in others student numbers grew faster than expenditure
Annual expenditure per studenton educational institutions, in equivalent US dollars converted using PPPs • Spending per primary and secondary student in Italy is well above the OECD average • Why is spending high but teacher salaries are low? • Much of spending is invested in very low student/staff ratios (10.6 in primary education, the lowest in the OECD) • Annual intended instruction hours for students are high but teaching hours for teachers are low • High spending levels do not translate into strong results B1
Cumulative expenditure on educational institutions per student over the average duration of tertiary studiesAnnual expenditure on educational institutions per student multiplied by average duration of studies, in equivalent US dollars converted using PPPs (2001) Each segment of the bar represents the annual expenditure per student. The number of segments represents the number of years a student remains on average in tertiary education. B1
Changes in spending per student in primary and secondary educationrelative to different factors (1995=100, 2001 constant prices ) B1
Basic teachers' salaries in lower secondary educationAnnual statutory teachers' salaries in public institutions in equivalent US dollars converted using PPPs, and ratio of salary after 15 years of experience to GDP per capita (2002) US $ D3
Changes in teachers' salaries in lower secondary educationbetween 1996 and 2002Index of change between 1996 and 2002 (1996=100, 2002 price levels using GDP deflators) Index (1996=100) D3
Percentage of teachers’ working time spent teaching Hours per year
But what about the quality of education? OECD’s PISA assessment allows to compare the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds across countries.
PISA - The OECD Programme for International Student Assessment • The most comprehensive international assessment to date • Geographic and economic coverage • 340,000 15-year-old students randomly sampled • 43 countries in 2000 and 2003, 60 countries in 2006 • Subject matter coverage • Reading, Mathematics, Science • Cross-curricular competencies • Variety of task formats • Open-constructed responses, multiple-choice • Depths • A total of 7 hours of assessment material
HighPerformance High performance Low social equity High performance High social equity Moderate impact of social background on performance Strong impact of social background on performance Low performance Low social equity Low performance High social equity Low Performance
HighPerformance High performance Low social equity High performance High social equity Moderate impact of social background on performance Strong impact of social background on performance Low performance Low social equity Low performance High social equity Low Performance .
Is it all innate ability?Variation in student performance 1917-21 1 53-9 64-9 109-11 2221-25 75-9 2119-24 83-10 1610-20
Is it all innate ability?Variation in student performance 1917-21 1 53-9 64-9 109-11 2221-25 75-9 2119-24 83-10 1610-20
Is it all innate ability?Variation in student performance Variation of performance within schools Variation of performance between schools 1917-21 1 53-9 64-9 109-11 2221-25 75-9 2119-24 83-10 1610-20
How we can get there. Policy levers that emerge from international comparisons.
Analytic framework Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 3 Outputs and OutcomesImpact of Learning Policy LeversThat shape Outcomes Antecedentsthat contextualise or constrain policy Level A Individual learner Quality and distribution of knowledge and skills Individual attitudes, engagement and behaviour Social background of the learners 2.A 1.A 3.A Level B Learning practices and classroom climate Quality of instructional delivery Student learning conditions and teacher working conditions Instructional settings 1.B 2.B 3.B Level C Community and school characteristics Variation in institutional performance The learning environment, autonomy, accountability of schools Schools 1.C 2.C 3.C Level D System-wide structures, resources and policies Overall system performance National educational, social and economic context Country or system 1.D 2.D 3.D
Policy Levers • Student approaches to learning • The ability to manage one’s learning is both an important outcome of education and a contributor to student literacy skills at school • Learning strategies, motivation, self-related beliefs, preferred learning styles • Different aspects of students’ learning approaches are closely related • Well-motivated and self-confident students tend to invest in effective learning strategies and this contributes to their literacy skills • Immigrant students tend to be weaker performers … but they do not have weaker characteristics as learners • Boys and girls each have distinctive strengths and weaknesses as learners • Girls stronger in relation to motivation and self-confidence in reading • Boys believing more than girls in their own efficacy as learners and in their mathematical abilities
HighPerformance • Students perceived teacher support • High degree of support • Low degree of support Moderate impact of social background on performance Strong impact of social background on performance Low Performance .
Governance of the school system • In the best performing countries • Decentralised decision-making is combined with devices to ensure a fair distribution of substantive educational opportunities • The provision of standards and curricula at national/subnational levels is combined with advanced evaluation systems • That are implemented by professional agencies • Process-oriented assessments and/or centralised final examinations are complimented with individual reports and feed-back mechanisms on student learning progress
HighPerformance • E.g. Learning environment and course offering • High degree of school-level autonomy • Low degree of school-level autonomy • % Variance between schools 11% 20% 9% 76% 7% Moderate impact of social background on performance Strong impact of social background on performance 75% 71% r=.51 Low Performance .
Organisation of instruction • In the best performing countries • Schools and teachers have explicit strategies and approaches for teaching heterogeneous groups of learners • A high degree of individualised learning processes • Disparities related to socio-economic factors and migration are recognised as major challenges • Students are offered a variety of extra-curricular activities • Schools offer differentiated support structures for students • E.g. school psychologists or career counsellors • Institutional differentiation is introduced, if at all, at later stages • Integrated approaches also contributed to reducing the impact of students socio-economic background on outcomes
HighPerformance • Early selection and institutional stratification • High degree of integration • Early selection and stratification Moderate impact of social background on performance Strong impact of social background on performance Low Performance .
Support systems and professional teacher development • In the best performing countries • Effective support systems are located at individual school level or in specialised support institutions • Teacher training schemes are selective • The training of pre-school personnel is closely integrated with the professional development of teachers • Continuing professional development is a constitutive part of the system • Special attention is paid to the professional development of school management personnel
Common characteristics Uniformity Diversity Universal high standards “hit and miss” “Inputs” Outcomes Bureaucratic Devolved responsibility Look outwards Look up Received wisdom Data and best practice Motivating feedback and incentivising success and innovation Evaluation to control Prescription Informed profession
One challenge – different approaches The future of education systems needs to be “knowledge rich” Informed professional judgement, the teacher as a “knowledge worker” Informed prescription National prescription Professional judgement Uninformed prescription, teachers implement curricula Uninformed professional judgement The tradition of education systems has been “knowledge poor”
Further information • www.oecd.org • www.pisa.oecd.org • email: email@example.com • Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org … and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
The distribution of decision-making responsibilities has changed… …but in different ways across countries.
Percentage of educational decisions taken at each level of governmentLower secondary education (2003) % D6