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JDP 3-40 Security & Stabilisation: The Military Contribution Presentation by Lieutenant Colonel Alasdair Balgarnie T PowerPoint Presentation
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JDP 3-40 Security & Stabilisation: The Military Contribution Presentation by Lieutenant Colonel Alasdair Balgarnie Team Leader JDP 3-40 Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre Recent Headlines “Overstretched, overwhelmed and over there.” “Britain's armed forces, losing their way?”

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JDP 3-40Security & Stabilisation: The Military ContributionPresentation by Lieutenant Colonel Alasdair Balgarnie Team Leader JDP 3-40

Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre

recent headlines
Recent Headlines
  • “Overstretched, overwhelmed and over there.”
  • “Britain's armed forces, losing their way?”

The Economist, 29 Jan 09

  • “Overstretch pushes British troops to the brink”

Daily Telegraph, 11 Jan 09

  • “Why did it all go wrong. Re-assessing British COIN in Iraq.”

Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2008

  • “Blair’s Wars and Brown’s Budgets: from Strategic Defence Review to Strategic Decay in less than a decade.”

International Affairs, Spring 09

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…Failed / Fragile States

…Shifting Demographics

…Climate Change

…Uncertain Natural Resource Availability

…Weapons of Mass Destruction

A US Army View

In line with DCDC Strategic Trends

Drivers Towards InstabilityDriven by Six Mega Trends

…Globalization

Arctic sea ice melted by 2040 … Desertification at 70,000Km2/yr … 1.4B confront environmental fragility

Top 1% of world population owns 40% of wealth …Interconnected world economies and opportunities …The ‘have-nots’ know it

60% will live in urban areas by 2030 … Africa, Middle East, Central Africa have 40-50% Youth Bulge

Account for 77% of conflict … Fragile states have 4 times terror problems … 28 of 51 African states high risk

~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … 3770 tons of enriched uranium … al Qaeda religious duty

World food cost up 45%, shortages of rice, wheat & maize … triple digit oil prices … 450M face severe water shortage

spectrum of conflict view
Spectrum of Conflict View

Counter Irregular Activity

Peacetime Military Engagement

Peace Support Operations

Limited Intervention

Major Combat

Level of violence

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Operational Theme

Increasing Level of Violence

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LWC Tactical Doctrine

How does 3-40 fit in ?

Joint Ops Project

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JDP 3-40

Allies

OGDs

LWC Tactical Doctrine

How does 3-40 fit in ?

Joint Ops Project

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stabilising fragile or failed states,

determining the nature, level,

principles and priorities that govern

the UK military contribution

and the principles governing

transitions to civilian and host nation control

JDP 3-40 sets out the Operational Art for:

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Terminology

Stabilisation

Stabilisation is the process that supports states which are entering, enduring or emerging from conflict, in order to prevent or reduce violence; protect the population and key infrastructure; promote political processes and governance structures which lead to a political settlement that institutionalises non-violent contests for power; and prepare for sustainable social and economic development

jdp 3 40 macro structure

PART 1: STABILISATION

  • The problem of societal conflicts within fragile states:
    • the UK approach to the stabilisation
    • the underlying causes of state fragility and societal conflicts
  • 3 big ideas:
    • ‘comprehensively’ across security, development and governance lines of operation
    • central conflict relationship - host government, competing elites (+ insurgents), wider population
    • the national strategic aim - to foster the development of a political settlement, amenable to broader UK interests between these actors
JDP 3-40 Macro Structure
  • PART 2: THE MILITARY CONTRIBUTION TO STABILISATION
  • the nature of military engagement within stabilisation missions
  • the military’s role in influencing the societal conflict in ways which foster the development of a political settlement
  • the generic types of operational tasks the military may be required to conduct across security, governance and development lines of operation – permissiveness is the key
  • a set of principles for the use of military force
  • PART 3: CAMPAIGNING IN STABILISATION
  • the critical function of intelligence in underpinning the campaigning cycle
  • the specifics of campaigning within the stabilisation environment
  • the tools and insights necessary for conducting the iterative cycle of campaign design, analysis, planning, execution and assessment
  • Anticipating, learning and adapting
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JDP 3-40:Key Themes

  • The Centrality of Influence in Stabilisation – to achieve a political settlement
  • Stabilisation Activities & combat are both part of complex operations
  • Host Nation sovereignty impacts on everything you do
  • Security demands persistent presence – requires mass and is linked to capacity building
  • Multinationality brings its own complexity
  • Any plan must be comprehensive in its considerations – there should be an integrated theatre campaign plan
  • The military are likely to have a significant role in the delivery of civil effect
  • Anticipate, learn and adapt.
  • Transitions – planned, managed - dynamic