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Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917 [email protected] Outlook 2004. Pinnacle Realty Investments. Pinnacle Advisory Group. National Lodging Market. Top 25 Markets – 2002

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outlook 2004
Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC

Pinnacle Advisory Group

76 Canal Street

Boston, MA 02114

Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917

[email protected]

Outlook 2004

Pinnacle Realty Investments

Pinnacle Advisory Group

national lodging market

National Lodging Market

Top 25 Markets – 2002

Total U.S. Market Through April 2003

National Projections

national lodging market3

National Lodging Market

Top 25 Markets – 2002

slide4
Top 25 MarketsRoom Supply Percent Change - 2002

INDUSTRY AVERAGE 1.8 %

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

slide5
Top 25 MarketsADR Percent Change - 2002

INDUSTRY AVERAGE -1.5 %

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

slide6
Top 25 MarketsOccupancy 2002

INDUSTRY AVERAGE 59.2 %

Source: Smith Travel Research

slide7
Top 25 Markets RevPAR 2002

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

national lodging market8

National Lodging Market

Total U.S. Market Through April 2003

slide9
Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average To April 2003

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

total united states occupancy and adr twelve month moving average to apr 2003
Total United StatesOccupancy and ADRTwelve Month Moving Average To Apr 2003

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

total united states key performance indicators percent change twelve months ending april
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeTwelve Months Ending April

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

chain scales occupancy adr percent change twelve months ended april 2003
Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Months Ended April 2003

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

national lodging market13

National Lodging Market

National Projections

slide14
U.S. Lodging Outlook

* Supply Growth Significantly Lower

* Demand Lags, Then Recovers

* Occupancy Flat

* Pressure on Room Rates

* Slow RevPAR Growth

* Potential Threat – War/Terrorism

total united states supply demand percent change 1996 2003p
Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent Change1996 – 2003P

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

total united states occupancy percent 1996 2003p
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent1996 – 2003P

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

total united states average daily rate 1996 2003p
Total United StatesAverage Daily Rate1996 – 2003P

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

total united states revpar percent change 1996 2003p
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent Change1996 – 2003P

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

new england occupancy 2002
New England Occupancy - 2002

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

new england average daily rate 2002
New England Average Daily Rate – 2002

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

new england revpar 2002
New England RevPAR – 2002

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

new england change in performance 2002
New England Change in Performance - 2002

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

new england change in performance ytd june 2003
New England Change in Performance – YTD June 2003

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

suburban boston lodging market

Suburban Boston Lodging Market

Statistics

Projections

suburban boston occupancy 1995 2002
Suburban Boston Occupancy 1995-2002

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

suburban boston average room rate 1995 2002
Suburban Boston Average Room Rate 1995 - 2002

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

suburban boston revpar 1995 2002
Suburban Boston RevPAR 1995 - 2002

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

suburban boston lodging supply 1995 2002
Suburban Boston Lodging Supply 1995 - 2002

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

suburban boston occupancy ytd june 2001 2003
Suburban Boston Occupancy YTD June 2001 - 2003

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

suburban boston average daily rate ytd 2001 2003
Suburban Boston Average Daily Rate YTD 2001 - 2003

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

suburban boston revpar ytd 2001 2003
Suburban Boston RevPARYTD 2001 - 2003

Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

suburban boston 2003
Suburban Boston 2003
  • Continued Lack of Overflow from Boston
  • Major Demand Generators Report only limited increases in demand
  • Shorter Booking Window
  • New Supply Less but Still a Factor
  • Pent-up demand
suburban boston 2004
Suburban Boston 2004
  • Stronger Convention Year for Boston
  • Improving economy
  • Limited New Supply
  • Stable Geopolitical Situation
  • Weak Dollar
boston cambridge lodging market

Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market

Statistics

New Supply

Demand Trends

Projections

boston cambridge occupancy 1989 2002
Boston / Cambridge Occupancy 1989 – 2002

Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

boston cambridge average room rate 1989 2002
Boston / Cambridge Average Room Rate 1989-2002

Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

boston cambridge revpar 1989 2002
Boston / Cambridge RevPAR 1989-2002

Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

boston cambridge lodging supply 1989 2002
Boston / Cambridge Lodging Supply 1989 - 2002

Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

boston cambridge revpar ytd june 2001 2003
Boston / Cambridge RevPARYTD June 2001-2003

Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

boston cambridge change in performance by market area ytd june 2003
Boston / Cambridge Change in Performance By Market Area – YTD June 2003

Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

boston cambridge new supply 2003
Boston / Cambridge New Supply 2003
  • Embassy Suites - Airport – 273 Rooms - April
  • Residence Inn – Charlestown – 168 Rooms – May
  • Hotel Marlowe – E. Cambridge – 236 Rooms – May
  • Commonwealth Hotel – Kenmore Square 149 - Rooms - May
  • Courtyard Hotel – Back Bay - 90 - Rooms -September/October
boston cambridge new supply 2004
Boston / Cambridge New Supply 2004
  • Hotel Onyx – N. Station – 112 Rooms – Winter/Spring
  • Jurys Doyle – Back Bay – 220 Rooms – Spring
  • Clarion – N. Station – 88 Rooms – Summer
  • Hampton Inn and Suites – Crosstown – 175 Rooms – Summer
boston cambridge demand trends
Boston / Cambridge Demand Trends
  • Declining Corporate Demand
    • Economy
    • Geopolitical Situation
  • Declining Group Demand
    • Weak Corporate Demand
    • Off Convention Years
  • Declining Airline Crew Demand
    • Economy
    • Airline Industry Woes
boston cambridge demand trends57
Boston / Cambridge Demand Trends
  • Increasing Leisure Demand
    • “Buying” Demand Through Lower Rates
    • Increasing Use of the Internet
  • Increasing Government Demand
    • Increased Per Diem
    • Homeland Security
factors affecting boston cambridge performance vs national performance
Factors Affecting Boston / Cambridge Performance vs. National Performance
  • Stronger Supply Increases
  • Heavy Reliance on Technology and Financial Services Industries
  • Popular Destination with International Travelers
factors affecting demand 2h 2003
Factors Affecting Demand 2H 2003
  • Fewer Conventions than 2H 2002
  • New Supply
  • Shorter Booking Window
  • Improving Economy
  • More Stable Geopolitical Situation
  • Weak Dollar
pinnacle operators survey 2003
Pinnacle Operators Survey 2003
  • 18 Hotels, 7,900 Rooms
  • Occupancy
    • Down 2.4 Points
  • Average Rate
    • Down 7.3 Percent
  • RevPAR
    • Down 10.2 Percent
factors affecting demand 2004
Factors Affecting Demand 2004
  • Strong Convention Year
  • New Supply
  • Improving Economy
  • More Stable Geopolitical Situation
  • Weak Dollar
  • MOTT Budget Reduction
pinnacle operators survey 2004
Pinnacle Operators Survey 2004
  • 18 Hotels, 7,900 Rooms
  • Occupancy
    • Up 1.4 Points
  • Average Rate
    • Up 2.5 Percent
  • RevPAR
    • Up 4.8 Percent
outlook 200466
Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC

Pinnacle Advisory Group

76 Canal Street

Boston, MA 02114

Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917

[email protected]

Outlook 2004

Pinnacle Realty Investments

Pinnacle Advisory Group

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