BeefBasis A Web Based Cattle Basis Analysis & Forecasting Tool - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  1. BeefBasis.comA Web Based Cattle Basis Analysis & Forecasting Tool Dr. Kevin Dhuyvetter and Dr. James Mintert Department of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University Kole Swanser Custom Ag Solutions Kansas Livestock Association Convention November 30, 2006

  2. Feeder Cattle Basis Basis=Cash price–Futures Price Cash price = Futures price + Basis Futures price + Expected basis Expected cash price 2

  3. The Problem • Basis can vary dramatically between feeder cattle weight classes, market locations, and from year to year • Effective price risk management requires that you be able to forecast basis Futures price + Expected basis Expected cash price 3

  4. Light Weight Steer Basis Is Extremely Variable 4

  5. Heavy Weight Steer Basis Differs Dramatically From Light Weight Basis 5

  6. The Solution • Research on feeder cattle prices suggests many factors affect cash prices • Key Variables: sex, weight, lot size, frame size, corn prices, fed cattle prices, market location • Factors that affect cash feeder cattle prices also impact basis • Transaction level sales data for multiple years and market locations are required to quantify these variables’ impact on basis 6

  7. The Solution Develop a web-based feeder cattle basis forecasting tool where forecasts are region-specific and account for cattle type and current market conditions www.BeefBasis.com 7

  8. Modeling Model inputs/variables • Lot characteristics (supplied by producer) • Location • Frame and Class • Expected Weight • Sex • Expected Sale Date • Lot Size • Futures Prices (automated in final version) 8

  9. Modeling Feeder Cattle Futures Basis Models • Model A Basis = f(lot size, weight, sex, frame, class, contract change, feeder cattle futures, month) • Model B Basis = f(lot size, weight, sex, frame, class, contract change, live cattle and corn futures, month) 9

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  21. BeefBasis.com • Provides feeder cattle basis forecasts • Better than historical averages • Incorporate current market conditions • Forecasts for 15 states will be available AL, AR, FL, IA, KS, KY, MO, MT, NE, ND, OK, SD, TN, TX, WY • Provides Hedge Analysis • Data available for downloading into Excel 21

  22. Thank You!www.BeefBasis.comwww.AgManager.infofor K-State Ag Economics info 22