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WEEKLY CURRENCY COMMODITY REPORT

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WEEKLY CURRENCY COMMODITY REPORT

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  1. October 18, 2021 Weekly Currency and Commodity Levels CURRENCY OUTLOOK RBI REFERENCE RATE FUNDAMENTALS OF CURRENCY: The US dollar index was slightly higher around 94 on Friday but snapped a 5-week winning streak as investors shifted to riskier assets as recent data showed retail sales unexpectedly rose in September. The greenback has rallied since early September on expectations the US Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy more quickly than previously anticipated amid an improving economy and rising inflation. Minutes INDEX CLOSE PREV. CLOSE CHANGE IN % USDINR 74.994 74.8607 0.18 GBPINR 102.0048 101.6943 0.31 EURINR 86.5981 86.4995 0.11 JPYINR 67.01 67.16 -0.22 FII FIGURES of the Fed’s September meeting confirmed this week that a tapering of stimulus is all but certain to start this year. The Japanese yen lost another 0.45% to around 114.1 per dollar on Friday, hovering around a 3- year low and approaching an area that resisted since May 2017. An increase in risk appetite which lifted equities, commodities and commodity-linked currencies weighed on safe haven assets, with the yen falling harder than the dollar as the Bank of Japan remained firm on not pulling stimulus out of the market. A BOJ board member said on Thursday that despite a positive outlook on Japan’s economy, the central bank will not reduce monetary easing for the time being as the country has yet to achieve its 2% inflation stability target. The euro traded at $1.16 in mid-October, hovering around its weakest level since July 2020, amid concerns over mounting inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices and expectations the US Federal Reserve will be tapering faster than the European Central Bank. Fed policymakers are expected to begin scaling back asset purchases in November and start raising interest rates next year, while the ECB is seen hiking rates by 10 bps by the end of 2022. Source: tradingeconomics.com DATE EQUITY BOND 14-OCT 1681.6 -1750.59 13-OCT 937.31 -431.72 12-OCT -278.32 -741.22 11-OCT -1303.22 -373.28 ¶ 08-OCT -64.01 -168.19 NET 973.36 -3465 U S DOLLAR INDEX 1 www.swastika.co.in research@swastika.co.in

  2. October 18, 2021 Weekly Currency and Commodity Levels USDINR TECHNICAL CHART Pivot levels for Domestic Currencies Pivot levels for Global Currencies Technical indicators (Daily): RSI- 61.1605 MACD- 0.2091 MOVING AVERAGES (20,50,100)- (74.0639/73.6797/73.7647) WEEKLY PIVOT LEVELS S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 76.29 75.98 75.50 75.19 74.71 74.40 73.92 PAIR R2 R1 P S1 S2 PAIR R2 R1 P S1 S2 USDINR 75.98 75.50 75.19 74.71 74.40 EURUSD 1.1683 1.1641 1.1583 1.1541 1.1483 EURINR 88.05 87.52 86.98 86.46 85.92 GBPUSD 1.3902 1.3826 1.3697 1.3621 1.3492 GBPINR 103.99 103.57 102.91 102.48 101.83 USDJPY JPYINR 115.9267 115.0633 113.6067 112.7433 111.2867 67.43 66.55 66.03 65.15 64.63 Currency Majors CLOSEPRICE CURRENCY FXMAJORS DAY WEEK MONTHLY YTD EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD USDJPY USDCNY USDCHF USDCAD USDMXN USDINR USDBRL USDRUB DXY USDKRW USDZAR USDSGD USDHKD 1.15983 1.37441 0.74157 114.25 6.43389 0.92247 1.2375 20.3453 75.013 5.4605 70.829 93.965 1,178.16 9.2174 8.6076 3.9313 0.06% 0.55% -0.01% 0.35% -0.03% -0.19% 0.01% -1.02% 0.05% -0.96% -0.64% 0.01% 0.00% 0.46% -0.34% -0.31% 0.25% 0.98% 1.50% 1.80% -0.18% -0.48% -0.76% -1.70% -0.13% -0.87% -1.32% -0.11% -1.19% 2.86% -1.50% -1.21% -1.41% -0.39% 1.71% 4.14% -0.31% -0.54% -2.42% 2.04% 1.96% 3.94% -1.89% 1.11% 0.59% 8.13% -0.15% 1.19% -5.06% 0.52% -3.79% 10.66% -1.05% 4.23% -2.79% 2.24% 2.71% 5.14% -4.01% 4.48% 8.68% 24.02% 4.64% 5.46% EURO POUND AUSTRAILIAN DOLLAR YEN YUAN SWISS FRANC CANADIAN DOLLAR MEXICO PESO INDIAN RUPEE BRAZILIAN REAL RUSSIAN RUBBLE DOLLAR INDEX KOREAN WON SOUTH AFRICAN RAND SINGAPORE DOLLAR HONGKONG DOLLAR 2 www.swastika.co.in research@swastika.co.in

  3. October 18, 2021 Weekly Currency and Commodity Levels COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK FUNDAMENTALS OF COMMODITY: Zinc prices soared more than 8% to above $3,800 a tonne, the highest since June 2007 after top producer Glencore said it was "adjusting production" to save energy costs at its three European zinc smelters. The move follows Belgium-based Nyrstar earlier in the week, which announced it will cut production by up to 50% at its also three European zinc smelters due to soaring electricity prices. Global zinc consumption growth is estimated at 6.2% in 2021 before easing to 2.3% next year. WTI crude futures settled 1.2% higher at $82.3 a barrel on Friday, a fresh 7-year high, and booked a 3.6% gain on the week, as shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia continued to boost demand for oil and supply tightness persist. The IEA said on Thursday the energy crunch is expected to boost oil demand Meanwhile, the agency reported an increase of 6.088 million barrels of crude in the US last week, almost 6 times higher than market expectations. Natural gas futures went down to $5.5 per million British thermal units on Friday, as demand for next week is seen lower-than- expected as the weather will likely remain mild until the end of October. Still, gas prices remain elevated and not far from a seven- year high of $6.5 early hit earlier in the month, amid strong demand during the winter heating season inventory levels, especially in Europe and Asia. Source: www.tradingeconomics.com Pivot levels for MCX Bullion: COMMODITY R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 GOLD 48110 47894 47553 47337 46996 46780 46439 SILVER 64382 63924 63597 63139 62812 62354 62027 Pivot levels for MCX Energy: COMMODITY R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 CRUDEOIL 6454 6324 6246 6116 6038 5908 5830 NATURAL GAS 471.6 458.7 446.3 433.4 421.0 408.1 395.7 Pivot levels for MCX Metals: COMMODITY R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 ALUMINIUM 282.4 270.1 262.2 249.9 241.9 229.6 221.7 by 500,000 bpd. NICKEL 1678.1 1620.5 1585.7 1528.1 1493.3 1435.7 1400.9 ZINC 402.6 363.6 343.0 304.0 283.5 244.5 223.9 COPPER 897.6 850.3 822.8 775.5 748.1 700.8 673.3 LEAD 212.4 204.0 197.4 189.0 182.4 174.0 167.4 and depleted 3 www.swastika.co.in research@swastika.co.in

  4. October 18, 2021 Weekly Currency and Commodity Levels Commodity Majors COMMODITY PRICE DAY WEEKLY MONTHLY YTD CRUDE OIL 82.28 1.19% 3.69% 13.32% 69.58% BRENT 84.92 1.10% 3.07% 12.22% 63.94% NATURAL GAS 5.418 -4.73% -2.64% 1.56% 113.39% GOLD 1,767.23 -1.58% 0.60% 0.79% -6.82% SILVER 23.301 -1.02% 2.83% 1.62% -11.60% PLATINUM 1,053.98 -0.11% 2.72% 12.97% -1.12% PALLADIUM 2,068.40 -2.83% -0.46% 1.71% -15.49% COPPER 4.721 2.39% 10.20% 10.34% 34.16% LEAD 2,396.00 2.02% 5.31% 8.77% 21.27% ALUMINIUM 3,172.50 1.15% 7.14% 9.76% 60.17% TIN 37,287.50 0.63% 3.03% 9.19% 83.55% ZINC 3,814.00 8.20% 20.50% 24.07% 38.64% NICKEL 20,066.00 3.86% 4.37% 3.35% 21.22% MCX GOLD CHART Technical indicators (Daily): RSI- 50.28 MACD- -239.30 MOVING AVERAGES (20,50,100)- (47246/47647/46682) WEEKLY PIVOT LEVELS S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 48110 47894 47553 47337 46996 46780 46439 4 www.swastika.co.in research@swastika.co.in

  5. October 18, 2021 Weekly Currency and Commodity Levels MCX CRUDE OIL CHART Technical indicators (Daily): RSI- 71.7959 MACD- 305.49 MOVING AVERAGES (20,50,100)- (5348/4601/3824) WEEKLY PIVOT LEVELS MCX COPPER CHART WEEKLY PIVOT LEVELS S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 6454 6324 6246 6116 6038 5908 5830 Technical indicators (Daily): RSI- 75.3806 MACD- 13.0984 MOVING AVERAGES (20,50,100) - (725.6/721.07/726.75) S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 897.6 850.3 822.8 775.5 748.1 700.8 673.3 5 www.swastika.co.in research@swastika.co.in

  6. October 18, 2021 Weekly Currency and Commodity Levels UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS DATE TIME COUNTRY DATA FORECAST PREVIOUS Mon Oct 18 6:45pm USD Industrial Production m/m 0.003 0.004 Tue Oct 19 5:35pm GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks Wed Oct 20 11:30am GBP CPI y/y 0.032 0.032 8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 6.1M Thu Oct 21 6:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 24.3 30.7 USD Unemployment Claims 298K 293K 8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 81B Fri Oct 22 11:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.007 -0.009 12:45pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.3 55 EUR French Flash Services PMI 55.3 56.2 1:00pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.8 58.4 EUR German Flash Services PMI 55.2 56.2 1:30pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.3 58.6 EUR Flash Services PMI 55.4 56.4 2:00pm GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.6 57.1 GBP Flash Services PMI 54.5 55.4 7:15pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 60.5 60.7 USD Flash Services PMI 55.3 54.9 Sat Oct 23 Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report 6 www.swastika.co.in research@swastika.co.in

  7. October 18, 2021 Weekly Currency and Commodity Levels DISCLAIMER: Disclaimer: This document is solely for the personal information of the intended recipient and must not be exceptionally used as the basis for any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment, Legal, taxation or financial advice. Swastika Investmart Ltd. is not soliciting any action based upon it. Each recipient of this document should make necessary investigations as they consider important to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved). This report has been made based on information that we consider reliable and are publicly available but we do not state that it is accurate or complete and it should not be solely relied upon such, as this document is for. Swastika Investmart Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within this document. Swastika Investmart Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies, or employees shall not be in any way held responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. CORPORATE & ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE - 48, Jaora Compound, M.Y.H. Road, Indore - 452 001 | Phone0731 - 6644000 / 3345000 Compliance Officer: Ms. Sheetal Duraphe Email: compliance@swastika.co.inPhone: (0731) 6644 241 Swastika Investmart Limited, SEBI Regn. No. : NSE - INB/F/E 231129736, BSE - INB/F 011129732, MSEI - INE 261129736, INB/F 261129739, NSDL & CDSL - IN-DP-115-2015, NCDEX & MCX : INZ000072532, Investment Advisor Regn. No. – INA000009843. 7 www.swastika.co.in research@swastika.co.in

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