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An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and Choice Experiments – the Context of On-Shore Wind Energy Supply

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An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and Choice Experiments– the Context of On-Shore Wind Energy Supply

Cornelia Ohl*, Jürgen Meyerhoff#* Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig# Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin)

Grant No

01UN0601A, B

overview
Overview
  • The Project
  • First Results
  • Outlook
the project background
The Project: Background

Not in my backyard

CO2-emmissions and

running out of resources

positive

negative

Global Climate Change

Impacts on Nature

Windenergy

the project goals
The Project: Goals
  • Quantifying externalities of wind energy supply with

the help of Choice Experiments (CE) and an

Ecological-Economic Modelling (EEM) procedure.

  • Identification, Evaluation and Visualisationof

alternative land use options.

  • Support site selection for the installation of wind

power plants

the project modelling procedure
The Project: Modelling procedure

Data on:

Wind speed,

Impacts on nature (esp. collision risk red kite) and humans (noise, shadow etc.).

3 representative wind mills

(2MW, 3 MW, 6 MW)

For each technology calcula-tion of: energy output, land consumption, collision risk red kite etc.

Display of GIS – Maps

Visualisation of e.g.

Energy output (here:

classified according to

German EEG)

red – low energy outputgreen - high energy output

(1km grids)

the project identification of sites
The Project: Identification of sites

Green: Potential sites for a specific wind mill erection

Red: Suitable sites from a nature conservation point of view

Grey:

Sites electedby regional planning bodies

the project choice experiments
The Project: Choice Experiments
  • Characteristics of wind energy production are defined as attributes of environmental changes
  • Focus is on:
    • Height of the turbines
    • Seize of a wind farm
    • Impacts on local wildlife (collision risk red kite)
    • Distance to settlement areas
    • Cost of allocation patterns (surcharge monthly power bill)
  • Setting options presented to German public
  • Survey includes statements concerning attitudes toward wind power generation, etc. and Choice Experiments
    • Two representative studies (West Saxony; Northern Hesse)
    • Nationwide online-survey (Accessible: June to July 2008)
first results online survey self selection bias
First Results: Online-Survey Self selection bias
  • Respondents were gained through press releases and announcements on various web pages
  • Thus, sample is not representative for German population, e.g.:
    • only 20% women in sample (nationwide around 51%)
    • 44% of respondents buy green energy (nationwide around 5%)
first results online survey consistency of choices
First Results: Online-Survey Consistency of choices

Programm A presents status quo for wind power production in 2020

Each respondent was presented 4 choice cards during interview plus a fifth card with a dominant alternative

first results online survey choice of dominant alternative
First Results: Online-Survey Choice of dominant alternative
  • Respondents were randomly presented one of two choice cards with a dominant alternative, i.e., all attributes were at least as good as in the other alternative and at least one was better
first results online survey effect of attribut level conditional logit
First Results: Online-Survey Effect of attribut level - Conditional logit
  • Apart from “Ab_150” all variables are significant at 5% level
  • Apart from “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” signs are as expected, e.g., price: “prei” is
  • negative
  • Negative sign for “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” indicates that people do not prefer a
  • move from wind mills of 200 meter heightto smaller ones
first results online survey implicit prices based on cl
First Results: Online-Survey Implicit prices based on CL
  • Implicit price (IP) indicates WTP for movement from one attribute level to another
  • IP is given by:
outlook evaluation of sites
Outlook: Evaluation of Sites

Integration of Survey Results in the EE-Model

Goal: Sustainable Site Selection

Natur impactgreen = low

Social impactgreen = low

Energy outputgreen = high

S e a r c h f o r c o m p r o m i s e !

outlook site selection with mulbo
Outlook: Site Selection with MULBO

Compromise 1: Equality of goals

Red:

Wind mill erection (Typ I) not allowed by legislation

Green:Potential sites for wind power generation as selected by MULBO

Blue:

Sites selected by regional planning bodies

thank you for attention
Thank you for attention!

Websites: http://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=14638

http://www.landschaftsoekonomie.tu-berlin.de/8359.html