Measuring and Managing Economic Exposure. Chapter 10. CHAPTER 10 MEASURING AND MANAGING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE. CHAPTER OVERVIEW I. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE II. THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES III. IDENTIFYING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE
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I. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE
II. THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES
III. IDENTIFYING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE
IV. CALCULATING ECONOMIC EXPOSURE
V. AN OPERATIONAL MEASURE OF EXCHANGE RISK
VI. MANAGING OPERATING EXPOSURE
Step 1. Identify the exposure
Step 2. Define the risks
Step 3. Develop guidelines to create a strategy
Step 4. List the operating exposures
Step 5. Measure (calculate) the economic exposure
Step 6. Develop methods to manage risk
I. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK:
Step I. Identify the exposure
A. Economic exposure defined:
focuses on the future impact of unexpected currency fluctuations on firm’s value.
B. The most important aspect of foreign exchange risk management:
Incorporate expectations about the risk into all basic decisions of the firm.
Step 2. Define the risks
Economic exposure =Transaction exposure + Operating exposure
D. Operating Exposure:
arises because currency fluctuations alter a company’s future revenues and expenses.
E. Real Exchange Rates Changes and Risk
Nominal v. real exchange rates:
real rate has been adjusted for price changes.
Assume: no two nations have the same annual rate of inflation.
1. If nominal rates change with an equal price change, no alteration to cash flows.
*2. If real rates change, it causes relative price changes and changes in purchasing power.
I. Operating Exposure begins:
the moment a firm starts to invest in a market subject to foreign competition
or in sourcing goods or inputs abroad
Step 3. Develop guidelines to create a
II. ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
A. The impact on Operating Exposure of a real rate change depends upon:
Pricing flexibility and
1. Price elasticity of demand 2. Degree of product differentiation
3. The Ability to shift production and the substitution of inputs
B. During an appreciation of importer’s home currency:
Exporters face two choices:
1. keep prices constant (but lose sales)
2. adjust prices to foreign currency to maintain market share (lose profits)
Pricing Flexibility is key
C. Can the firm maintain its profit margins both at home and abroad?
If price elasticity of demand is low, the more price flexibility a firm has.
i.e. Availability of good substitutes
The Ford Corp in Indonesia, 1997
D. Product Differentiation
Price elasticity depends on degree of differentiation
The greater the differentiation, the more the firm can control its prices.
e.g. Daimler Chrysler Corp.
E. The Ability to Shift Production and to source inputs from other countries
e.g. Japanese car makers (Toyota) in the late 1980’s who lost market share due to their inabililty to shift production
1. the economic impact of a currency change depends on the offset by the difference in inflation rates or the change in real exchange rates.
2. It is the relative price changes that ultimately determine a firm’s long-run exposure.
Step 4. List the new risks
I. Operating exposure begins with
New product development
A distribution network
Brand name development
Marketing to foreign markets
Foreign supply contracts
Overseas production facilities
II. Key Questions to Identify Risk
A. Where is the company selling?
B. Who are the Company’s key competitors?
C. How sensitive is demand to price?
D. Where is the company producing?
E. Where are the company’s inputs coming from?
F. How are the company’s inputs and outputs priced?
Step 5. Measure the economic exposure
To measure operating exposure requires a longer-term perspective.
i.e. Cost and price competitiveness could be affected by unexpected exchange rate changes
A decline in the real value of a currency:
makes exports and import-competing goods
An appreciating currency makes:
imports and export-competing goods more
I. Operational Definition of Economic Risk
A. A company faces exchange risk to the extent that variations in the dollar value of the unit’s cash flows are correlated with variations in the nominal exchange rate.
Step 6. Develop strategies to manage economic exposure
Operating exposure management requires long-term operating adjustments and the involvement of ALL departments.
II. Marketing Strategy
A. Market Selection:
use competitive advantage to carve out market share when currency values change
B. Pricing strategy: Expectations critical
1. If HC depreciates, exporter gains
competitive advantage by increasing unit profitability or market share.
2. The higher price elasticity of demand, the more currency risk
the firm faces by other product substitution.
C. Product Strategy
exchange rate changes may alter:
1. The timing of new product introductions,
2. Product deletion
3. Product innovations
III. Product Management Adjustments
A. Input mix “shop the world”
B. Shift production among plants
C. Plant relocation (new)
D. Raising productivity
IV. Planning For Exchange-Rate Changes
A. Develop contingency plans with plausible scenarios before the impact of a currency change makes itself felt.
e.g. flexible mfg systems